ABS 10/20 77, turns a boat, but river action...?

[tempest7178]

6 handed, BB is a super fish 71/1/0.42, SB is a 29/6/1.4 who just sat down, not sure if he is aware of how fishy the SB is. I have no notes on the Sb, only 25 hands

I open 77 in UTG+1, SB and BB call.

Flop is KKT 2 diamonds, checked to me, I bet only SB calls.

turn is an offsuit 7,

check, bet, raise, 3bet, call.

river is an offsuit Q.

He leads I...?

[gehrig]

easy raise. ur only behind kq which 3bets pf a lot and puts more in on the turn a lot. j9 (double gutter on turn), aj, qj, aq, Kx is a lot of combos no matter how much u discount them

[ILOVEPOKER929]

When you think about this hand, this is really a simple logical problem. The SB check/raises the turn basically telling you "I have Kx" You 3bet the turn telling him "I can beat your Kx" and the small blind reponds accordingly by calling telling you "I know you have me beat but I gotta see it" Then the Queen hits the river and the small blind donks telling you "I can beat AK" which means all you really have here is a crying call.

Now the question is, do you believe the SB's story? Do you think the SB plays logically/reasonably? If so then just call. If you think the SB is retarded then raise. Just keep in mind that you need to be greater than a 2-1 favorite to make this river raise profitable assuming the SB always calls when you have the best hand and the SB always 3bets when he has the best hand and you never fold. When most sane players take this line street by street you will see KQ often enough to make calling the river superior to raising.

To see why calling is better than raising vs a typical opponent lets consider how somone would play their hand if they had KJ on this board. After they check/raise the turn with this hand and you 3bet, most players would either go into call down mode or they would stubbornly still think they have the nuts and cap the turn. Why would someone call the turn 3bet and then donk the river when the Queen hits? It doesnt make sense. Now im sure there are players out there that would make this play but they are in the minority IMO.

So without a read I would just call the river since I would assume I am not a 2-1 favorite here.

[josh_x]

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So without a read I would just raise the river since I would assume I am a 2-1 favorite here.

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imo, same reasoning gehrig used.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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So without a read I would just raise the river since I would assume I am a 2-1 favorite here.

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imo, same reasoning gehrig used.

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Gehrig makes some good points. And im certainly not suggesting that this is a clear call, but I dont think its a clear raise either. One thing I will say though is that based on this opponents stats alone, I would assume he's not 3betting KQo in this spot preflop, and instead coldcalling. I would also assume based on stats alone that this player is very unlikely to semi-bluff the turn on that board. So his preflop play, flop play, turn play, and river play look very consistent with KQ.

The problem with this stats analysis is we only have a few hands on this guy and certainly stats cannot tell us how he really plays or the nature of his mood, but you gotta start somewhere.

Against this guy I would call the river, the hero may be a favorite on the river but I'm still not convinced hes a 2-1 favorite.

[wackjob]

I'm raising the river allllll day.

[Dane S]

Raising would be, um, bad.