Rethinking big draws - Part 1

[Kyriefurro]

<font color="blue">Note: I've been running into some problems with my big draws and they're costing me a lot of money. Maybe it's just bad luck, but I'm starting to think that it's more likely that I'm misplaying them.

Generally, you want to get all in with a big draw - preferrably as the aggressor so you have fold equity, but even calling all-in is often acceptable since you frequently have sufficient pot odds for the call. However, I'm coming to realized that there are exceptions to this general rule and that learning to recognize those exceptions can save me some money, thereby improving my win rate.</font>

Villain in this hand is a relative unknown. I've only got 20 hands on him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($151.50)
Button ($49.80)
Hero ($93.80)
BB ($72.90)
UTG ($34.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($5) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $9</font>, Hero........?

What's my line, and why? (Why is much more important than what, btw. So please, no one line answers [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

[nyc999]

I like a raise to about $30. You're a pretty big favorite against villain's range, which IMO, is pretty wide in a blind battle (BTW I would raise less pf).

At most, you're looking at 18 outs (9 flush + 6 straight + 3 aces). The problem is if you flat call the flop raise, villain may shut down if any of them hit on the turn. So you want to build the pot now.

I guess the bigger issue will be what happens when he calls the raise and you miss on the turn.

[Sir Winalot]

Meh, this would be much easier if 100bb deep. Hmm, we're getting decent odds to see a turn card here and stack him if we hit. But then again we have a monster draw and in theory I'd like to get my money in asap. I probably raise to 28ish. My 'why' is that I have a quaddzilla-load of outs and any FE that comes along is bonus. Not to say that I'm an expert though, I just like spewing my chips all around the uNL-world.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

since the stacks are kind of deep i would just call this and checkraise when i hit, if you repot it that's only a raise to $32 which isn't enough to get your stacks in, but will commit you to the hand if he shoves. it also effectively commits you to either open shoving a blank turn or folding if he moves in, which would suck balls

[Grunch]

Pretend you have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and reconsider. My point is I don't think your draws is as strong as you think it is. A one-card gutshot is not a great draw.

That said, I'm going to go out on a limb here. I'll bet your opponent has one of two hands: a draw similar to yours or a hand he considers strong enough so that you don't have any fold equity. I like calling this particular raise, then leading the turn for a smallish bet. If he raises too much, fold. Worse draws will frequently call.

[Big Poppa Smurf]

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling this particular raise, then leading the turn for a smallish bet. If he raises too much, fold. Worse draws will frequently call.

[/ QUOTE ]

the pot is still smallish and we have lots of $ to play, why would you take a line that might force you to fold this draw? what if he decides to semibluff again thinking we're full of it? if the turn checks through it's not that big a deal, since it probably means we're both drawing anyway and our draw is best. if he takes a free card with a lower flush draw and it hits we still get to stack him

[redCashion]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretend you have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and reconsider. My point is I don't think your draws is as strong as you think it is. A one-card gutshot is not a great draw.

That said, I'm going to go out on a limb here. I'll bet your opponent has one of two hands: a draw similar to yours or a hand he considers strong enough so that you don't have any fold equity. I like calling this particular raise, then leading the turn for a smallish bet. If he raises too much, fold. Worse draws will frequently call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm seeing an OESD. But I do like just calling here, only because you are so deep and I'd like to hit my hand before jamming the pot. Less upside but less downside, and I think when you get deep stack protection becomes important.

[Pokey]

OK, we can rule out folding. That leaves us with three choices:

- Smooth-call
- Raise less than all-in
- Push

What are the relevant issues?

1. Strength of your hand right now.

Uhm...nil. You have ace-high, no kicker. If villain has so much as a five, he's got you beaten. You'll have to hit to win at showdown.


2. Strength of your draw.

Mondo. You've got eight outs to the absolute nuts, one out to a very strong hand (5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), six more outs to a straight, and three outs to an overpair. I'd call that fifteen outs, and that's better than a 50/50 chance of winning at showdown.


3. Current pot size.

Look at your overlay: right now, the pot has over 40 BBs in it. That's almost half a stack, and that's worth fighting VERY hard for. It's also a pot you're not at all unhappy about winning right now.


4. Position.

Awful. You're heads-up and you're first to act on every round.


5. Opponent.

Aggressive. Sure, he smooth-called preflop, but he's awake now. The odds of getting a free showdown are nil, and the odds of getting a free river card are slim.


6. Stealth.

Well, both of your draws are fairly obvious. That reduces your payoff factor dramatically (unless your opponent is on the same draw, which is unlikely for the flush draw and unprofitable for the straight draw).


7. Folding equity.

Significant. This is a blind-vs-blind situation, which usually reduces your folding equity, but if you push your opponent will be put to a decision for about 120 BBs, and that would give anybody pause. Without a ridiculously strong hand, he'll have to lay it down, and even against a ridiculously strong hand you'll still have some very live draws. I think that both 97 and 74 are extremely unlikely for villain given that he called the preflop raise; unless he has 88, 66, or 55, he'll be sorely tempted to fold. And frankly, he's a dog in the hand with any hand OTHER than those, so it's not awful if he goes to the mat with them.


8. Villain's folding equity.

Highly variable, and you really want it to be nil. If anybody has folding equity in this hand, it should be YOU, not him.


In my opinion, you have two choices available to you:

1. Three-bet all-in. The simplest choice, and a very effective one. Your folding equity is absolutely maximal. Villain folds just about everything except a set, and the pot is large enough to give you a tasty profit when he does dump it. The downside is that on the rare occasion when he DOES go to war, you're probably behind. You risk losing 120 BBs to win 130 BBs, and against a set you're winning about 40% of the time, so when you push and get called you will, on average, lose 20 BBs. That means that if villain folds at least one-third the time (and he safely will), this is a +EV push.

2. Three-bet to $22 (pushing over any four-bet by villain) and open-pushing any turn. This line is scarier, because about two-thirds of the time you will be open-pushing the turn unimproved. However, the flop three-bet leaves you almost exactly a pot-sized bet on the turn, and it should scare the ever-living hell out of your opponent. The benefit of this line is that the three-bet gets called by many more hands than a push will, yet the turn push still has powerful folding equity against most hands. The down side, of course, is that your opponent is going to four-bet (probably all-in) with his best hands, and you'll have to call/push, knowing you have no folding equity but also knowing that you have proper odds to chase. In other words, there's no hope of escaping with any money intact.

But is this really a drawback? If villain has 88/66/55, you're going broke if you miss unless your opponent is a complete moron or you screw up the hand yourself. After all, the only way your opponent could avoid getting all-in is if YOU play the hand in a way that minimizes your contribution to the pot, and this is NOT the hand where you want to do that! If you play this hand afraid of tiny chance that your opponent has a set, you'll lose all SORTS of value against hands that you beat soundly. Played properly, there should be no river betting in this hand, and that means that unless your opponent is weak-tight to the EXTREME, you have to hit or lose a big ol' stack here on the rare occasion that your opponent flopped a set.

All told, I like the "raise to $22, open-push any turn" line best. It builds a bigger overlay for when villain folds to the push, it makes your hand look INCREDIBLY strong, and it doesn't require any tremendous overbets at any phase of play that might tip your opponent to your actual holding. If you go broke, you go broke -- this is a high-variance hand, after all. However, you'll make good money most of the time, and great money occasionally. It's well worth the risk.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, I'm going to go out on a limb here. I'll bet your opponent has one of two hands: a draw similar to yours or a hand he considers strong enough so that you don't have any fold equity. I like calling this particular raise, then leading the turn for a smallish bet. If he raises too much, fold. Worse draws will frequently call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Vs 87 we are 53%, vs 86 51%, vs jj 62%. Vs a range consisting solely of sets and straights we are 40%. I guess these qualify as draws similar to ours and good hands that we have 0 FE against? Why are we turning all those hands into winners for villain by paying for one card at a time? Not to mention all those hands where villain is taking a piss, realize we are drawing and fires again on the turn.

[ChipStorm]

You can't just raise. You're OOP, and if you just raise and get called, a blank turn makes you puke. So you call, or push.

You could certainly call. One of your draws is to the nuts, and you stand a chance at least of overflushing. But both draws will be pretty obvious when they come in, and being OOP you may not get paid much.

For this combo draw:

* Worst case, villain has the nut straight. Then you're in trouble, but you still have 9 flush outs, plus 3 more to tie. And this doesn't look like the nut straight, because that would mean he called your pfr w/ 97; possible, but unlikely.
* If villain has a set, you have 15 less his chance to fill up.
* If villain has your straight draw, you have 12 outs to win plus 6 more to split.
* If villain has two pair, you have about 15 outs.
* If villain has an overpair, you have zomg 18 outs.

Against this array your win chances have to be at least very close to 50%, if not more, and there's $15 in there already. But you can't just raise, as stated above.

So I'm shoving.