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#21
11-17-2006, 12:38 PM
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Re: Free Money
My own view (I am a tennis coinflipper who makes money off of lines rather than handicapping) is that "good Blake" has a top 3 game but bad Blake should be ranked maybe #10. TR is probably overranked at 6, but he is very consistent. I'm not really sure about how much public money goes in on Blake, but I didn't feel that he was overbet today. -250ish in a match on carpet v TR that meant something seemed reasonable, so -230 or whatever in a dead match seems ok.
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#23
11-17-2006, 01:06 PM
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Re: Free Money
On Bet365: To Win Shanghai Outright
Federer 1.20 Nadal 8.00 Nalbandian 10.00 Blake 13.00 Surely there is value in taking all three of the others for 1 unit each, Nalbandian has beaten federer before on indoor courts at Shanghai albeit he was a much better player back then. Nadal has beaten him on Clay this year, i know vastly different from indoor but still he has no mental issues with trying to defeat federer. Placing 1 unit on each of the other three equates to 6 to 1 on nadal, Surely he beats federer more than once in every six encounters on carpet?! And as for Blake he has the potential to trouble federer on his very best day, although i doubt he would beat him if he did reach the final. what ya think?
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#26
11-18-2006, 07:29 AM
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Re: Free Money
[ QUOTE ]
Cool, well what you think about tomorrows matches? [/ QUOTE ] Remember, I'm not a winning tennis handicapper, but I like Blake here +odds. I feel that the fatigue factor is overdone. While Blake had to go three sets yesterday, he didn't look incredibly intense to me, he just played tennis and won the match. I think that Nadal is having a pretty good week and that Blake's win over Davidyenko is also reasonable. By contrast, Nalbandian's win over Roddick is deeply suspect as Roddick pretty clearly had a hangover from the Federer match and wasn't playing his best in the first set. I think either player could win this match and I think that Blake +odds has to be the bet if you are going to bet on it. On the other side, Nadal + 500 sticks out as "that has to be a good price", but I don't think it is. I don't want to lay that much wood on Federer and I will not go against him (though I do have a bet on Nadal to win the cup made pre-tournament at +950 that I do not have much confidence in). One thing that I would say is that where Federer has trouble, he seems to have it in the first set and then gets better, so I might like a prop on Nadal to win the first set if good odds were available.
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#27
11-18-2006, 08:14 AM
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Re: Free Money
I took federer to win in three sets, although its not a bet i have great confidence in after the start hes made. I think im gonna hit blake for 3 units for the reason you state above, i just dont think Nalbandian is the same player he was a year ago. He has looked decidedly over-weight at times this season and blake has the shots to beat him.
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