NFL Week 10

[rjp]

YTD: 50-48-3 (-3.65 units; ROI: -3.72%)

Houston Texans +10.5 (-115)
Houston Texans / Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 37.5 (-109)

This game features two division opponents that recently played, with the Texans getting the big win at home. Much has changed for Jacksonville since then, most notably the QB. Garrard will again start over Leftwich, and the Jaguars are playing much better without an injured QB.

This, however, does not mean the Jags are that much better than Houston. These teams are likely to play a close, low-scoring affair with the Jaguars coming out on top.

Tennessee Titans +7 (-105)
Baltimore Ravens / Tennessee Titans OVER 37.5 (-105)

Last week the Titans were torn to shreds by the Jags in the rain. Most bettors would fear taking a rookie QB against a strong defense, but in reality Young isn’t that bad. The Titans are definately a longshot to win this game, but they should cover 7 points often enough to prove profitable.

New York Jets +10.5 (-109)

The Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL, even after their tough loss to the Colts. The Jets are coming off a bye and will be motivated as always against their division rival. 10.5 points is typically too much for any NFL team, and this is no different.

Buffalo Bills +13 (-115)

The Bills will be without McGahee and Reed, but the Colts aren’t this good. Don’t be shocked to see the Colts win by 20+, but more often than not the Bills keep this respectable.

Oakland Raiders +9.5 (-108)

The Raiders proved last week they can’t do anything in the rain, but now they’ll be at home in more friendly confines. Oakland, however, shouldn’t be getting this many points at home from anyone.

New Orleans Saints +4.5 (+107)
New Orleans Saints/Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 45.5 (-110)

I’ll finally let myself believe the Steelers should be a favorite, simply because of motivational reasoning. Recent play shows the Saints are likely to crush the Steelers, but they won’t be motivated to perform at their best.

The Saints got an extra day off this week after their win over Tampa Bay, and it’s likely they feel like they’re on top of the world right now. The Steelers are in the exact opposite situation, where they will be fighting for any win they can get.

New Orleans, however, won’t lose this game often enough to not be profitable at this price.

New York Giants -110

The Giants and Bears playing on a neutral field figures to be a fairly even game. This game has been bet down to the point where a profitable play can be expected with the Giants. Toomer was lost for the season, but that won’t mean this much in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Carolina Panthers UNDER 37 (-105)

Coming out of the bye week coach Fox will want to do everything he can to get Carolina back to their typical ways of winning: eating the clock with the run and playing strong defense. The Panthers have a good chance of enforcing that against the lowly Bucs.

[checkmate36]

Thanks for taking the time. I always look forward to checking out your picks.

Im on NO +6 +100. My bro is at the game so I hope Pitt gets crushed. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[rjp]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 (-112)

Carolina should be highly motivated to win this game after their debacle against the Cowboys two weeks ago. They’ve had two weeks to prepare, and all focus should be on Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay, however, is a division rival that typically plays the Panthers tough. I have a hard time seeing Carolina lose this game, but in reality they will lose this game a small portion of the time. As such, giving 10.5 points to Tampa Bay is too many, as Tampa Bay will more often than not cover this large number.

[Tyler Durden]

Excellent picks. Thanks very much.

[rjp]

Carolina looked content with a FG, but Tampa decided they didn't need to cover Steve Smith! Still a decent week.

YTD: 59-51-3 (+1.62 units; ROI: 1.47%)

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina looked content with a FG, but Tampa decided they didn't need to cover Steve Smith! Still a decent week.

YTD: 59-51-3 (+1.62 units; ROI: 1.47%)

[/ QUOTE ]

It still appears that you are just blindly betting big dogs, but congrats on getting + for the season, nice week.

[rjp]

I just bet where the value is.