CFB: How many games to play in a week?

[sshan83]

Agesux...you have a bookie and bookies charge a standard 10% juice. I used to ALWAYS bet with a bookie, never online, but you save a ridiculous amount of juice betting online. Most of Pinnacle's juice is under 10%. The cash-only transactions are pretty sweet though...definitely gave me something to look forward to every week and it was pretty convenient.

Homer...you say that you shouldn't reject all games with an edge. Fine. But the line between a small edge beating the vig and a smaller edge not beating it is so thin. So many times, I read about people's picks and they say, "I lean this way." Lean is not a strong word and does not exude much confidence. Why not eliminate the dangerous games with small edges just barely beating the vig and invest more in games with bigger edges? Doesn't that seem like sound logic?

[Homer]

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Homer...you say that you shouldn't reject all games with an edge. Fine. But the line between a small edge beating the vig and a smaller edge not beating it is so thin. So many times, I read about people's picks and they say, "I lean this way." Lean is not a strong word and does not exude much confidence. Why not eliminate the dangerous games with small edges just barely beating the vig and invest more in games with bigger edges? Doesn't that seem like sound logic?

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You're right, people often do say they have a "lean" towards a certain team covering and that isn't enough to justify betting on it. My point, though, is that you shouldn't reject betting a game with a small edge simply because it will result in you betting on more than x games per day/week. Just put less on that game than on those that have larger edges. If I think one team has a 57% chance of covering and another has a 53% chance, I'm going bet both, but am going to bet about 3 times as much on the larger favorite (assuming -105 lines).

[droopy0021]

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Specific philosophy:
Last year, I only posted 32 picks for the entire season. They were my top picks and Illinois picks.

There were numerous requests for me to post all my picks this year, so I have sort of. This year was going along quite nicely until this past weekend (92-71),

I'm now barely down on the year at 102-100. I've hit most of my big plays (7-4 on POTW and hammered tOSU/Iowa game

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Not indicting this past weeks results. This has been a question I've had for some time--I've followed this board closely for CFB this season. I'm amazed that people have the time/energy to handicap so many games in a week.

My thinking after factoring in vig on each game and just the difficulty in truly diving into so many games would make winning tough over long haul. Doesn't matter how many are posted on this site, just how many are being wagered.

[sshan83]

Well Homer...what if...you would normally a rate a game a 3-unit game and instead put 4 units on it instead of betting a 1-unit game with a small edge?

[Ken_AA]

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I bet with "a GUY" where there are no ML bets and all bets are -110. That may be my problem? I only started really betting this year and am still trying to learn the system. Would you recomend that i go online?

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Yes. Use a reduced juice book. You only have to pick 51.2% winners to beat -105 lines, as opposed to 52.4% to beat standard -110 lines.

If you're using a bookie who is slow to move lines, you may sometimes be able to get better value betting through him. It can't hurt to have more outs, though.

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Reduced juice is important but so are bonuses. You should be betting with one or the other..

Here is my example, Since the start of my betting "year" (I dont bet baseball so I bet from football season to the end of the NCAA tourny) I am down 2.5 units. However I am about one weeks worth of bets away from clearing a 12.5 unit bonus. Hence I could easily make 10 units while actually losing on my picks.

Your primary book shouldn't be a guy.

Ken

[fun160]

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For sake of conversation we went 11-9 up 2 bets right? No, your losing roughly one bet in juice. So now its more like you went 11-10. If you choose to still the same amount and make 12 bets and hopefully 7-5 you will be up 1.5 units only paying half a bet in juice.

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The problem with your example is that the difference between 11-9 and 7-5 is 4-4. So you're saying if you break even on eight additional bets it costs you more juice. Isn't that self-evident?

The bottom line is that if a wager is +EV, take the bet, even if it lowers your win percentage.

[Homer]

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Well Homer...what if...you would normally a rate a game a 3-unit game and instead put 4 units on it instead of betting a 1-unit game with a small edge?

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Okay, but where does this train of thought stop? Why not wait until you've found the biggest edge ever and put your entire roll on it? I'd rather size bets proportional to my edge and not overbet larger edges as I'd be increasing my risk of ruin.

If given three options, my order of preference would be:

1) Bet 3 units on large edge, Bet 1 unit on small edge

2) Bet 3 units on large edge, lay off small edge

3) Bet 4 units on large edge

[dankhank]

i bet a lot of football games. between 30-50 per weekend. i am pretty sure i'm making a lot of good bets, since i usually beat the closing number. based on what i've learned about variance from poker, it seems like you are getting to the long run much sooner, by making lots of bets.

i usually only make 1-3 bets in the daily sports, since i am not as good at them. however, i know professional bettors in baseball for example, who make 15-20 plays a day during the season.

[MyTurn2Raise]

as a frame of reference,
I've heard it said that as a rule of thumb, financial investors should spend one hour/week on their significant holdings.

For college football, I watch every game I can live on Saturday. I DvR a handful of interesting match-ups and watch them later throughout the week as well as watching replays on ESPNU and ESPNClassic. I see about 10-15 games twice during the week. I watch ESPNU's "inside the polls," "college coaches' spotlight," and Thursday night "SportscenterU." I also catch CSTV's coaches show on Tuesday nights. These are the best group of analysts out there. They are much better than the talking heads regularly seen on ESPN as they don't have as much politics blocking their analysis.

At this point of the season, I can pretty much guess at the line according to my power index, the sagarin predictor, and dunkel index. I also have a system for prediciting totals based on estimated yards per play (which is derived from multiple guesstimates) and plays/possessions per game based on the anticipated flow of the game.
I go through the lines and see any that stick out. I then spend about 10 minutes on each one of those looking for any late injuries or developments that might through my analysis off. Covers.com and individual team fan forums are great sources.

Add in an additional few hours spent everyday going over the major forums to gather additional info.

Basically, I spend about an hour per week on the major teams in the big conferences (yes, there is some overlap as I get 2+ teams info at the same time watching tape), and catch many other observations on smaller teams.
You'll notice my picks are heavy on the major conferences, specifically the SEC, Big10, and Pac10.

I don't bet what I don't know.

Now, this is alot of work and not feasible for those who don't derive a substantial amount of income from gambling. The way around this is to find other experts or 'systems.' I'm flattered that many people on '2p2' consider me to be smart enough on college football to follow my bets. Frankly, I have a small 2 year sample of picks on the forum.
For some other sports, I bet systems (NHL, NBA, and probably MLB next year). I also follow posters here. For example, I mirror Performify, NajdorfDefense, and Lori's posted NFL picks. Jibba is starting to catch my eye as well. How did I choose these posters. Well, I read what they have to say and why. I then try to watch, or at least get a review of the games (happens quite a bit since Sunday is college football opening line day for me), to see how well their analysis matches on the losers and winners.

Search around (more than 2p2), you can find 54%+ winners at nearly every sport who really seem to know what's up.

man, i'm way off track here, but it all ties together. Bet with what you know, or follow someone who you are relatively sure really knows what they are betting.

Even more off track is that handicapping is really a small % of my sports betting, but I use alot of time on it since I enjoy it. The huge % of my bets are arbs, middles, and scalps.