Chickenfly69's NBA Picks 11/13/06

[Chickenfly69]

YTD: 40-22-2 +18.59 Units

Cle -1.5 1st Quarter

New Jersey -1 1st Quarter

These plays are each 2 units.

[Genejo]

Thanks for the great picks so far, keep it up! I like reading your analysis and reasoning for each pick, what is it with these two?

[Claunchy]

I noticed you do a lot of these first quarter only picks. Do certain teams just typically get off to fast/slow starts?

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
I noticed you do a lot of these first quarter only picks. Do certain teams just typically get off to fast/slow starts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not chickenfly, but I think the analysis he's using is pretty straightforward. Basically you are right.

In the case of Cle/NY, Cleveland is about even with their competition in the first quarter, actually a little ahead, while NY suffers a big 1Q deficit, giving up something like 5 more points than they score in that quarter.

The NJ bet is the other way around, where they score about 5 more points than their opposition in the first quarter, while Seattle is basically even in that quarter.

After about 20 games or so I will begin to think the numbers are even more telling than they are now, and I will start betting these harder myself personally.

[jets8781]

Just wondering what you think On clevelnad -6 and seattle +3.5 for tonights ga,es. thank you.

[Chickenfly69]

Well looks like Whipsaw took care of the analysis for me. Good job, thats exactly what I would have wrote.

[Chickenfly69]

I like cleveland -6 and seattle +3.5, but my 1st quarter bets are 5-2 while my ats bets are 19-10. Cleveland will win this game, they are an up and down team. Never two good games in a row and last game they started with a 10 point 1st quarter against Boston but still ended up winning the game by one. This game should be well in hand after the 1st quarter, but they have to keep it up until the end of the game and the knicks have outscored all of their opponents in the 2nd Half mostly because they are always down by double digits. So Cleveland and the under.

New Jersey starts out very well, but can't always finish. They were up 17 against the Heat and lost that game, up 15 against the Wizards and the sticky new ball helped them win that one in overtime. So I look for New Jersey to be up by 8 in the 1st Half and end up with a close game in the fourth quarter so I would take the Sonics with the points, also this is the back game of a back to back with the last game including overtime. Seattle and the over.

The other game on the schedule is the Orlando @ Boston game. For some reason I hate betting games that involve Boston. If I had to pick I would bet the under and Boston +1. Boston is at home and Orlando is either really good or turning the ball over every trip downcourt (22 per game, leads the league). They are also on the 3rd game of their road trip.

[Chickenfly69]

I added Under 102.5 New York 2nd H & Under 99 Orlando 2nd H
So 1-2-1 today, the 1st quarters won't good for me today

[Chickenfly69]

YTD: 41-24-3 +15.59 Units

[Genejo]

I took your suggestions of Seattle +3.5 with the over, as well as nyk/cle under...thanks! keep up the great work