Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Ten

[Performify]

There are some things I'm ok talking about, and some I'm not.

1) yes. Injuries, weather, other "intangible" factors such as coaching, motivation (need to win, primarily), and some other factors are included.

2) I think I've mentioned before, I actually start with Sagarin ratings and adjust from them based on factors mentioned in 1 and others not mentioned. This gives me a spread for the game which the model believes is the true line. the distance this line is from the current line allows for unit shaping.

This may be the biggest flaw in my system, because I don't know exactly what Sagarin is modeling himself and I may be double counting various factors.

My model basically started as a way to try to take Sagarin's numbers and adjust them for the things that they did not include: weather, motivation, injuries, etc. some other adjustments were then applied as low-level inputs, i.e. turnovers, which is where I have the double-counting concerns

3) pretty constantly. during the offseason i'll sometimes try to go back and run previous data, but its actually a pretty intensive process to back test, unfortunately. I'd probably be a lot better at this if i frequently back-tested 5 years and frequently evaluated changes. If i were doing this purely professionally i'd probably take it more seriously and do so. I've also considered changing the basis of my system to move away from Sagarin at the base and move purely to statistical predictions of my own with capping, but .

4) just a line, no over/under. the predicted scores I include in my picks are something I make up on the fly, based on the numbers coming out of my system and some other inputs.

[Guyon]

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Primarily, the Steelers rush defense versus the Saints rushing attack. I expect a very poor rushing day for the Saints, which will hurt them on their entire offensive attack by forcing them to go pass first.

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The Saints are currently 27th in the league in rushing. I don't think they go into many games expecting to have big rushing days, and always go pass first.

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I also think the Steelers will be able to get pressure on Brees as well.


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Although sacks are not the be all and end all of QB pressure, it's at least something.

The Saints have given up 8 sacks through 8 games. Conversely, Pittsburgh has 23 sacks.

New Orleans has played 4 games against teams with 20 or more sacks this year; in those 4 games, they have given up 7 sacks (4 to Green Bay, 0 to Philly, 2 to Baltimore, 1 to Atlanta).

For Pittsburgh's 23 sacks, 12 came against two teams with obvious offensive line issues and/or immobile QBs: Cincy and Oakland (23 and 37 sacks allowed respectively). Take those out, and you have Pittsburgh with 11 sacks in 6 games. In fact, if you take the game against Oakland out, they have 3 sacks in their last 3 games (vs KC, Atlanta, Denver). I don't see any evidence they'll be able to get serious pressure on Brees - maybe 2 sacks at best.

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Great analysis.

[Obeyan]

Sorry for the newbie question, but how many games on average do you play? Also- do you play NCAAFB? Is MLB your roll building time- and NFL more for fun?

[dixieflatline]

Again thanks for all the info Performify and good luck the rest of the season.

[Performify]

Good stuff, Punker, thanks for the feedback. I'm going to look at some things tomorrow and may up that Saints play.

[Performify]

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Sorry for the newbie question, but how many games on average do you play? Also- do you play NCAAFB? Is MLB your roll building time- and NFL more for fun?

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on average i'd say 4 games and 1 teaser a week. The "tease of the week" started last year, mid season. a couple of the people who subscribed to my picks were asking for teaser plays, so I started obliging.

I do not play NCAAFB except as a "rank amateur", making individual bets on games I'm going to or will be watching. Most certainly not for "value".

I actually have access to a tremendously valuable NBA model, and I follow a couple MLB cappers but do not cap my own games there.

I do pretty well in NCAAB but don't post picks.

My primary sports betting is actually fighting arts, both MMA and boxing. And despite my record this season so far, my #2 sport is the NFL.

I do make quite a few plays that are not posted here, and always making market plays (arbitrages, middles, etc) as well. I'm actually up for the year in NFL despite my capping record against WA lines, which should actually help demonstrate the difficulty of beating the WA closing lines (which I use for my picks) compared to the ability to lineshop aggressively throughout the week...

[Performify]

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<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks for the Week[*]Jets +10.5 (-107) at Patriots : 6.42u to win 6u : WIN +6u[*]Chiefs -1 (-103) at Dolphins : 3.09u to win 3u : LOSS -3.09u[*]Saints +4 (-102) at Pittsburgh : 1.02u to win 1u : LOSS -1.02u[*]Teaser: Denver -2.5, Carolina -2.5 : 3.9u to win 3u : win Denver, open on Carolina[/list]

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This week:
1-2, +1.89u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Tease of the Week still pending


YTD RESULTS:
14-24-4 on posted picks, -11.74 units (excludes teasers)
3-3-3 on Game of the Week, -4.25 units.
4-3 on Tease of the Week, +1.6 units, open tease pending
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -10.14 units, teaser pending

[NanaAnna]

I boldly wrote:

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I hope I'm wrong but this game just screams a total blowout by the Pats.

Good luck,

Anna

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In the immortal words of Maxwell "Agent 86" Smart
"Missed it by that much....." LOL [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Congrats on your pick for this game.

[thing85]

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In the immortal words of Maxwell "Agent 86" Smart
"Missed it by that much....." LOL


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I miss that show.

[Performify]

<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks for the Week[*]Jets +10.5 (-107) at Patriots : 6.42u to win 6u : WIN +6u[*]Chiefs -1 (-103) at Dolphins : 3.09u to win 3u : LOSS -3.09u[*]Saints +4 (-102) at Pittsburgh : 1.02u to win 1u : LOSS -1.02u[*]Teaser: Denver -2.5, Carolina -2.5 : 3.9u to win 3u : WIN +3u[/list]
This week:
1-2, +1.89u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Win on Tease of the Week, +3u.
Total for the week: +4.89u


YTD RESULTS:
14-24-4 on posted picks, -11.74 units (excludes teasers)
3-3-3 on Game of the Week, -4.25 units.
5-3 on Tease of the Week, +4.6 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.14 units



A solid week overall. Jets pick was right on the money, identified as a very strong play and came through with an outright win.

The Chiefs play I feel the capping was correct. One possession game at the end, Chiefs had the opportunity to win in the 4th quarter. Chiefs couldn't get it done early, didn't get a first down until just a few minutes remained before halftime, so it was just Chiefs making mistakes on offense. Had you told me that the Chiefs would hold the Dolphins to 13 points I would have assumed thats a KC win at least 90% of the time.

Saints game was crazy, but a small play so not a tough loss there.