outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!

[mike l.]

no i didnt. most of you arent thinking thoroughly about this hand and the sorts of flops that can be troublesome and expensive.

i talked this fold over in great detail with gabe and others. im right about this. it's a slightly -EV fold. i would make the fold again if the situation were just right. id rather make x.00 bets per hour and have much lower variance than make x.10 or whatever and be pushing small edges every time and have a variance through the roof. i didnt realise that was at the crux of the issue when i posted the hand but now i do.

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
no i didnt. most of you arent thinking thoroughly about this hand and the sorts of flops that can be troublesome and expensive.

i talked this fold over in great detail with gabe and others. im right about this. it's a slightly -EV fold. i would make the fold again if the situation were just right. id rather make x.00 bets per hour and have much lower variance than make x.10 or whatever and be pushing small edges every time and have a variance through the roof. i didnt realise that was at the crux of the issue when i posted the hand but now i do.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if x was 0? Does this change your answer?

I take the x.1 every time.

Maximising our expectation is what it's all about.

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no i didnt. most of you arent thinking thoroughly about this hand and the sorts of flops that can be troublesome and expensive.

i talked this fold over in great detail with gabe and others. im right about this. it's a slightly -EV fold. i would make the fold again if the situation were just right. id rather make x.00 bets per hour and have much lower variance than make x.10 or whatever and be pushing small edges every time and have a variance through the roof. i didnt realise that was at the crux of the issue when i posted the hand but now i do.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if x was 0? Does this change your answer?

I take the x.1 every time.

Maximising our expectation is what it's all about.

[/ QUOTE ]

variance can minimize expectation because not all players have ice running through their blood, and are in fact prone to being "results oriented"

sometimes avoiding a slightly +ev spot w/ high variance is actually more + ev than accepting that spot.


know one's self, grasshoppah.....

[golferbrent]

[ QUOTE ]
no i didnt. most of you arent thinking thoroughly about this hand and the sorts of flops that can be troublesome and expensive.

i talked this fold over in great detail with gabe and others. im right about this. it's a slightly -EV fold. i would make the fold again if the situation were just right. id rather make x.00 bets per hour and have much lower variance than make x.10 or whatever and be pushing small edges every time and have a variance through the roof. i didnt realise that was at the crux of the issue when i posted the hand but now i do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree more. This is the post of the week right here. Mike you finally hit the reason behind why this fold is good here!!

[skp]

I really have no clue why some of you guys think that folding preflop is just a marginal error. If Mike has this guy pegged on AA/KK, then IMO it's a big error to fold JJ. The argument that you might get sucked in for bets postflop is not a reason to fold preflop. Postflop, you will make decisions based on the situation presented to you at that time. The fact that you may make good decisions postflop and yet go on to lose more money (because you miss) does not make calling preflop an error.

It's okay to chase, boys and girls.

Geez, good thing I put a comma in that last sentence but I digress...

If you are worried about getting sucked in postflop, just go ahead and fold on every Jackless flop even if the situation then begs for a call. Doing that will be a smaller error than folding preflop.

Heck, you could probably tell yourself that you will fold even if the flop comes KJx or AJx and still be better off than folding preflop.

[mike l.]

if X was zero i wouldnt play poker for a living. so yeah that changes my answer a lot i guess.

[mike l.]

"variance can minimize expectation because not all players have ice running through their blood, and are in fact prone to being "results oriented""

or simply have a limited bankroll that's constantly used to live a comfortable lifestyle and make other investments.

[Tommy Angelo]

Hi skp,

"The argument that you might get sucked in for bets postflop is not a reason to fold preflop."

Actually it's the only argument. And it's a good one, for those it applies to, which I guess is me and mike, and most of my opponents over the years. I can testify to thousands of data points on this issue, as the one getting paid all the way postflop by the lower pair who is absolutely certain I have a big pair but calls anyway, and as the one with the lower pair who is absolutely certain I am beat but call all three postflop streets anyway. On every one of those specific hands, the right play, in metaland, for me and my opponents, was to fold preflop.

Tommy

[mike l.]

"go ahead and fold on every Jackless flop even if the situation then begs for a call. Doing that will be a smaller error than folding preflop."

that's debatable! and an interesting debate. name some flops and let's talk about their relative worth.

"Heck, you could probably tell yourself that you will fold even if the flop comes KJx or AJx and still be better off than folding preflop."

i disagree. that just sounds silly.

one thing i was talking about with gabe: in the 1-2 game, while it is a very good game, the players in general are less prone to making serious errors postflop than they would be in a 20 or 40 game. so your earn with your good hands postflop is less and your loss with your second bests is more. so ill lose more drawing on a A72 flop w/ three of my suit than i would in a 20-40 game and might win less if i flop a set because it will become apparent earlier to more savvy players. also having the player behind me still to act on each street he's still in can really cause RIO problem for flop where im forced to draw due to pot size but am going to have to pay a lot. with iffy outs.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

variance can minimize expectation because not all players have ice running through their blood, and are in fact prone to being "results oriented"

sometimes avoiding a slightly +ev spot w/ high variance is actually more + ev than accepting that spot.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is a really good point. i never really thought of it that way. i think you may have just inspired me to tighten up.