NFL Week 10 - Early Thoughts

[NoChance]

In total agreement with the Giants. I wish the Bears would have won last week. The line would probably be a pick and it would have been a steal. Now it is closer to what it should be.

[Nick B.]

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They also let ronnie brown, who has done nothing this year, produce 150yds+ last week against them.

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Ronnie Brown hasn't been given a chance to run this year. He has had 3 games of 20+ carries. Hopefully this past week has opened up Mularky's eyes to see that they need ronnie to run the ball to win. Also, last year Miami was 13 point dogs going to san diego and won, this year they were 13.5 point dogs going into Chicago and won. So the point is, bet the money line when they are enormous dogs away.

[MacGuyV]

Yeah Brown is a good back, they just haven't had the lead. I wouldn't count on Mularkey suddenly wising up though.
I don't really like the Bears in this game but run defense is still the least of their concerns IMO.

[MacGuyV]

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PS: I also love Detroit this week.
PSS: I was looking ahead last week and loved the Giants at -1 but this has now moved to -3 again because of this past week's results. I think this is much closer to what it should be so I am passing. Also, injuries to both teams make this one a little more cloudy too.

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Those are about my thoughts exactly on this game.
As for the Lions, I like them more than most - they were my biggest play vs. Seattle Week 1 and Buffalo Week 6; not sure about laying nearly a TD with them though.

[aal113086]

detroit as a six point favorite ewwwwwww.... the saints have beaten much better teams than the stealers this year, i wouldn't bet against them

[iggymcfly]

I'm on Chicago too. I think the Strahan injury's big, as Grossman makes mistakes under pressure, but when the opposing D-line's outmatched, the Bears offense moves efficiently. Also, Eli Manning, while he's been very good this year, is still a young QB, and hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Chicago's yet. Even against TB and Houston the last two weeks, that Giants' offense has looked pretty shaky. I think a fair line is maybe Chicago -1.5, and I see significant value on the moneyline here.

The other pick I like this week is St. Louis at +3.5. The Rams looked to be about equal to the Seahawks at home with Hasselbeck, and I think his loss is worth significantly more than home advantage. The Rams three game losing streak seems to be as much about schedule as anything, and they'll probably see this game as a big opportunity to get back in the division race. (I haven't seen anything super-definitive on Hasselbeck, but I think he's out this week. Obviously, if he's playing, this analysis is null and void.)

[kdog]

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I'm on Chicago too. I think the Strahan injury's big, as Grossman makes mistakes under pressure, but when the opposing D-line's outmatched, the Bears offense moves efficiently. Also, Eli Manning, while he's been very good this year, is still a young QB, and hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Chicago's yet. Even against TB and Houston the last two weeks, that Giants' offense has looked pretty shaky. I think a fair line is maybe Chicago -1.5, and I see significant value on the moneyline here.


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Two things on this. First, if there's any part of the defense where the Giants are deep enough to afford an injury it's the line. Strahan's a great player but I don't think the drop off will be as big as many expect. Kiwanuka was their 1st round pick remember.

Second, while Grossman has been in the league longer, because of his injuries Manning has almost as much, if not more, NFL game experience. And against the overall tougher defenses of the NFC East.

I like the Giants at home in this game. With the exceptions of the first halves against Seattle & Philly and last week's Houston game they've looked good all year against a pretty tough schedule. The Bears have looked great against the bottom dwellers but the only decent teams they have played are the Vikings, who came thisclose to beating them and Seattle who looked lost playing their first week without Alexander.

Also Iggy...Hassalbeck is out this week.

[ChimpRage]

Bears line has moved probably with the knowledge that Berrian is out for the game. Berrian leads the Bears with 495 receiving yards and leads the Bears receivers with four touchdowns. Without him, the Giants D looks to be able to play man against their average receivers allowing for them to concentrate on stopping the run attack and pressuring the passer by stacking the box. Basically, even without Strahan, the Giants D should be able to stop the Bears because they have no Berrian

[Jibba]

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You're crazy to go this hard against the Giants.

The giants outplayed the Colts but lost opening night, and then have beaten Philly away, Cowboys away, Falcons away, they crushed Tampa at home but because of the wind the score wasn't as lopsided. They also beat the Texans and the Redskins, though they didnt look so hot last week. The one game they lost lost was the game agaisnt Seattle where they gave up 42 points in the first half, and then scored 30 in the second.

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The Giants didn't look great against Indy, and I think we can agree that that was far from Indy's best performance this year. Their loss against a mediocre Philly team wasn't spectacular and beating Bledsoe and the Cowboys wasn't either. The Atlanta game was possibly their best win of the season. Chicago, while they haven't beaten top competition, I think it's fair to say they were considered the top team in the league a couple weeks ago (or at least in the top 2).

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Look who the Bears have played...they haven't seen an offense anywhere close to the Giants besides maybe Seattle.

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And look at the defenses NY has beaten? Do you think Chicago will make them work a bit harder than Houston, Indy, Washington, Tampa, etc? I'll take a good defense over a good offense most days. Throw in the injuries to Strahan, Umenyiora and Tuck and I think that Grossman won't have to work under pressure all day. The injury to Berrian somewhat balances it out, but I think offense is easier to replace than defense.


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Also, look at how many points the Giants D has allowed per game since their bye...and that includes having sizeable leads in a couple contests.

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But that's not the same D that CHI will see Sunday night.

[Jibba]

Another thought for this week ... coming from a huge Pats fan. I bet them last week against Indy and was pretty shocked at the team that showed up. I expect them to bounce back this coming week, and teased them down to -6.5 with Chi +8.5. But I didn't even consider giving 10.5 points. But now there are rumors that Rodney's injury is much worse than a broken scapula. They signed someone to chip in at safety, but it won't be much help if Rodney is indeed out. The Pats D just didn't look that good without him. True, they were up against Indy, but they made stupid mistakes. Harrington is having a good year and is a good enough QB to go after those kinds of mistakes.

If I were to bet this game (and I don't think I can bring myself to go agains the Pats), I'd take the points. NE hasn't won by ten at home all season and the Jets usually play us pretty close.