Ajs flop a flush

[Smarazza]

Bozz: you're ever right [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

BBB: but if we know that a cap is signal that villain have we beated, it's right call 2BB to went to showdown? For me it's impossible fold this hand but sounds right. Opinions?

So the hand goes in this way:

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero calls <font color="aaaaaa">(12.25:1)</font>.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (13.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls <font color="aaaaaa">(14.25:1)</font>.

Results:
Final pot: 15.25BB
<font color="#ffffff">UTG+2 showed 9c 9h</font>
<font color="#ffffff">Hero mucks As Js</font>

[nach0king]

I'd have played it the exact same as the above. Value bet on the turn for 3, but after he caps then opens, it's time to call down. I wouldn't fold it because the pot's too big - you have equity on the times he has a K-high flush or trips 7s. That said, depending on reads, I wouldn't mind a fold in some cases.

[Fadook]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm. He raises 99 so he didn't turn a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I disagree with. PFR of 7 is still a bit low, and a guy like that isn't necessarily raising 99 from EP.

[SpewingChips]

Okay, I'm brand new, so please bear with my poor judgment (for now) and silly analysis.

Since I'm playing beginners, I'd see both four of a kind or a possible full house, since beginners will play just about anything at times.

Either way, the villain is playing strong into a flush situation, and that's pretty gutsy. With a flush I'd hate to fold it, but I'd not want to throw more money on the table than I had to. I could live with myself if I check/called and made less money than absolutely possible. I probably couldn't make myself fold a flush.

As a brand new fish myself, my biggest problem is controlling my leaks on losing hands...

[BigBadBabar]

hi spewingchips, i think folding in this situation is absolutely wrong and it's one of those hands where you have to pay it off and might be good anyway but there's no point in further raises. villian plays this the same way often with trips or a lower flush.

bbb

[davelin]

Grunch...

You didn't flop a flush. 3-bet that turn.

[antneye]

I think you have to 3-bet the turn....this could be a baby flush, although I would discount that possibility because a 14%VPIP is not limping anything suited that could be out there from UTG+2 except maybe KQS (which I would think he raises PF). Think about it.....minimum suited limp would be a mid connector. 78, 8,9 9,10 etc. only none of those are possible. maybe 56S. Would he really limp a one gap suited? Either way there is no way you can slow down here. If he caps, you call down. Typical crying call after he caps the turn.

The funny part of this game is that if you analyze hands like this and try to convince yourself there is a fold somewhere in here, you will lose much more in lost profits from folding to much, than you will ever save from making "magical" laydowns.

Edit: I agree that someone with these stats is limping 99 in this spot. I should know, my pfr% used to be the same. I have it up to 9% now and would now probably use a 70/30 split raise/limp depending on the table.

[Absolution]

It's hard to analyze this knowing the results, but even before reading them I thought 99 was about the only hand that made sense here. KQs is your only hope of taking this down.

Think about it. A fit or fold rock limps from UTG+2. This is almost always a medium pp. The only medium pp that would check raise that turn after calling preflop is 99 (or 77 if you like, but he might slowplay that on the flop.) He might do it with KQs, but that's the only other holding I see playing this way. He can't have QJs or any of the smaller Axs hands. I don't think he limps KTs here, but it's a possibility as well. He wouldn't play any other overpair this aggressively on that turn card.

It looks to me like on the turn there is one combination of KQs and 3 of 99. I think I just call down on the turn.

[Shillx]

His play is pretty terrible and there is no way to rationalize what happened. You just got coolered by a 1 outer on a hand that you played fine and he played like [censored].

He could have KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], QT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. That is 3 right there that make you even money against 99 (not a likely hand). Throw in all the other hands that you beat and it is easy to see why you played it fine.