Winners - Largest Downswing Poll

[melange]

Not trying to rehash the age-old variance woes, just trying to get a quantifiable idea of the commonality of large downswings among winners.

[Wynton]

If you're trying to figure out the most common donwswings, you should ask for people with similar amounts of hands played, or at least specify a minimum number of hands.

[danzasmack]

OP,

Also a "just let me see the results" choice is good. Because some people haven't played enough hands.

[melange]

Nah not most common, there's lots of threads for that. More just wondering informally what the average winning 2+2er's career low has been.

Ideally I suppose I'd limit the poll to 'largest downswing of winners with 5 million hands', which would give real information - e.g. odds of having a 500bb downswing in my lifetime. :P But 3 votes wouldn't say much either. hehe

[melange]

Post deleted by melange

[melange]

I just logged out and checked, there is indeed a "View the results of this poll" link for non-voters.

[DCWildcat]

You can see results without voting. You're good.

You should add a qualification for minimum # of hands, since that is the biggest criterion, by far, that determines the largest swing you'll encounter. Specifically, players with lots of hands are proportionally more likely to have had larger swings.

[MrWookie]

If you poke into BBV, you'll see several instances of 600 BB+ downswings. This poll is of questionable value to begin with, and having it stop so low is naive.

[melange]

Someone with a low # of hands is unlikely to have had a large downswing anyway. They will cluster in the 20-120 and 120-220 categories. If you want relevent data for those with a large # of hands, perhaps just remove those two options in your calculations? I'm guessing the luckiest long-longterm players will have had at the least a 250-300bb downswing.

[melange]

Meh... I almost included a 520-620 category, but figured the ensuing >620 category would be close to barren. So think of the >520 category as "520-620".

I guess if ever someone who voted >520 had a swing >620 they can mention it here for posterity.

This wasn't meant to be scientific.