25/50 Re-raised pot with AK

[Lyric]

[ QUOTE ]
Lyric, correct my math.. if he is equally likely to hold AA, AK or KK then 66% of the time the hand yields 0 and 33% you yield $2,852 (50% * $5,705.. pot size when you face your $2,650 call). That would mean the value of the hand is $941 (33% * $2,852). i.e. you would only be correct to call if it was < $941.

Given the above, I think if that is your range and your probabilities, the hand is a clear fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

The manual calculations are as follows:

I will win half the pot 6/10 times. (AA 3 combos, KK 1 combo, AK 6 combos)

The other 4/10 times I'm either drawing nearly dead vs KK (0.3% EV)or to two outs vs AA. (8.6% EV)

So, 6/10 times I'm splitting. 27.3% EV. (6/10*.5)
3/10 times I'm facing AA for 2.35% EV (3/10*.086)
1/10 times I'm facing Kk for 0.30% EV.(1/10*.00303)

This totals 32.37%.

[trplthrt]

Thanks, I agree. Was sort of mislead by your 'equally likely' comment without attributing the probability of each hand. The bigger error was taking the wrong pot size when attributing the %. Did not think it through. Damn day job.