Boxing This Weekend 11/3 & 11/4

[Tuds75]

A lot of good fights this weekend, headlined by Mayweather/Baldomir on Saturday. There will be many talented fighters being show cased on Showtime and the undercard of the PBF/Baldo PPV.

First Off, Serguei Lyakhovich -200 vs, Shannon Briggs +200:
I really like Serguei in this fight. His big coming out party was against Lamon Brewster and many people don't give him much credit even though he may be the best of all the heavyweights (Wlad's weak chin is a major concern). He has good size, a good chin and a good jab. His 2 biggest weapons I see are his work/punch rate and his body attack. Against Brewster he hammered Brewster body with conviction and it was his committment to the body what won him the fight. Briggs is 273 lbs for this weight, and even though it is a sculpted 273, that is what a boxers body should be like. Too much muscle makes a fighters slow and thus easy to gas and that those 2, can will ruin any fighters. Briggs does pack some power on his punches, but he is no Joe Louis, Ernie Shavers, George Foreman, or Tyson when it comes to punching power. I read a quote from Briggs trainer saying Briggs will pace himself instead of looking for the early KO, instead trying to wear down Sergui. If Briggs comes in with this gameplan Sergui will will EASY. I see Sergui going right to work on Briggs' body and this will wear down Briggs to probablly a late stoppage I think around the 10th or Briggs might just tough it out (the body damage) and try to finish the fight as a moral victory. As the fight wears on Briggs and Briggs gets his body pounded repeatedly his power will disappear faster then Mike Tyson's million of dollars.

Paul Williams vs Mauro Lucero
3.5 Rounds: OVER; +163 UNDER; -173
Paul Williams is the future of the Welterweight division with some comparing him to a young Thomas Hearns. He has a similar body to Hearns and has a lot of punching power (not as much as Hearns, but then again who did). Williams is 25, 6'1, southpaw and has a reach of heavyweight at 82 inches. He is just breaking on the scence as major player at 147. He is the undercard of PBF/Baldo. The reason he is on it is to get some exposure before he is gets the big fights. His opponet is hand picked cream puff with 11 loses and his last 3 losses have were KOs in round 1st, 1st, and 2nd and those weren't against fighters anywhere near the caliber of Williams. Williams went right through a skilled fighter in Sharmba Mitchell, but one who is the wrong weight class and who has passed his best days. Williams took Sharmba out in 4, just to give you an idea PBF took Sharmba out in 6 rounds. This being Williams last "tune-up" fight before he jumps into the welterweight (and above) title picture, he will want to impress everyone so his name will be known ever more. Some fighters uses these overmatchings to practice going rounds and keep a fighter up until they want to finish him, I don't see Paul "The Punisher" Wiliiams doing that. I'd be surprised if this one went into the 3 round. I see Williams starting fast and ending it fast. That the UNDER

Now Floyd Mayweather/Carlos Baldomir. The odds are going up on Baldo. He is now close to 6-1. There are a few things people need to remember about this fight. PBF (Pretty Boy Floyd) will be without his uncle and trainer for this fight. Mayweather's uncle was suspended after his part in the riot during the Judah/PBF fight. Uncle Mayweather will not be in PBF's corner durig the fight. This could hinder PBF if Baldo turns out to be a different fighter then they expected. Baldomir will try to use his size and a body attack to wear down and then slow down PBF and then will try to win the second half of the fight. Baldomir will keep coming foward and I think this will be good and bad for him. Good because PBF doesn't care for physical fights and like to be the stronger fighter and thus being able to bully his opponet. But coming foward will be bad for Baldo because PBF will know where to find him and should be an easy target to hit, because Baldo doesn't move very well to dodge punches. I picked Baldo against Gatti and when watching that fight it went exactly as I expected, but I also saw a few times that Gatti started to throw punches on the outside using his hand speed to land on Baldo, not much damage was done, but Gatti looked at his best when he was using speed to defeat Baldo. When I saw Gatti do this I thought to myself if he could have boxed that way the entire fight he might have won a dec. I see PBF fighting the way Gatti did in flashed against Baldo. PBF will stay on the outside moving, "riding his bike" to stay away from the ever charging Baldomir. I don't see a lot of value in PBF at -600 because it is still champion against champion and I don't think I will EVER EVER bet against a champion at -600. I don't see any other great bets in this fight. PBF will not Knockout Baldo, but he might close an eye or open a cut with the doctor stopping the fight, Baldomir won't quit and I can't see PBF knocking him out unless he lands the perfect punch. I just don't see any real value right now in this fight. Most Baldomir props are live, but not the odds are long for a reason. If I had to guess, I would take stap on a long shot I would take Baldomir by KO at +929. I could see him catch PBF with a good punch and maybe opening a cut or the perfect body punch ala De La Hoya/Hopkins.

Ok Enjoy the fights

Tuds

[Glenn]

Good analysis of the Mayweather fight. I think Mayweather by decision at -166 is huge. He wins this fight by decision at least 80% of the time. Baldomir's head is like a rock, and he has the footspeed of a rock. He is tough and big so he has a chance, but I see Mayweather punching him about a millon times but not doing too much damage. The only stoppage I could see would be a cut. Gatti and Judah both landed full power shots on Baldo with virtually no effect. I guess Floyd could land so much that he earns a stoppage from accumulation, but I don't think he's going to get involved enough for that to happen. Why risk it when he can land 20 punches/round and take 1?

[Tuds75]

I dont see Baldomir as a bleeder, more of a sweller. That is why I see an eye closing on Baldomir and the ref having no option, but to stop this fight.

Think of Vargas/Mosley I, where Vargas was still going strong even though his one was totally closed.

Tuds

[SitNHit]

I put 10 bucks on Baldimir, just so if my fav fighter in Floyd loses, Its a free PPV, if he wins, im happy and dont care I lose the 10 bucks....