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#61
11-03-2006, 11:18 PM
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Re: USC/Stanford U48.5
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] USC/Stanford U48.5 [/ QUOTE ] Much as I hate to bet against Stanford, any thoughts on bridge-jumping this game at -2800? I expected something along the lines of -4000. [/ QUOTE ] Michigan and USC are the best bridgejumpers this week and I'll probably be on both an earlier poster is correct, tOSU/Illinois is not a good bridgejumper...Though unlikely, I think Illinois wins that game 1 in 20 times [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] 
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#62
11-03-2006, 11:42 PM
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Re: add these in too
[ QUOTE ]
Hawaii -28.5 @ Utah St good to 34 Hawaii features the best pass attack in the country with run and shoot brilliance. Utah St. is dead last in pass efficiency defense in the entire country. While Hawaii's defense isn't that good, the Utah St offense is among the worst in ever category. This must be a 'trap' line as I don't understand the line at all. [/ QUOTE ] I took it at -25.5 now on Pinny. Hope you're right.
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#64
11-04-2006, 03:47 AM
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Re: add these in too
doing a bridgejumper on Michigan at -12000 moneyline
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#66
11-04-2006, 04:02 AM
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Re: add these in too
because I think Illinois wins enough that the -2600 is not +ev. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Michigan is as close to a 'sure thing' as I've seen all year.
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#68
11-04-2006, 04:13 AM
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Re: add these in too
to further explain, though I picked tOSU verse the spread, I can envision Illinois winning this game about 1 in 20 times. There is an argument to be made that Illinois is playing as good as a lower echelon bowl team right now and have killed themselves through untimely turnovers and special teams.
the last 5 games for the Illini 23-20 win at Michigan State 34-32 loss to Indiana on a last second fg in a game where Illinois jumped out to a 25-7 lead and let Indiana back into the game through kick returns and failed to build on their score because the coaching got too conservative. 20-17 loss to Ohio on a last second OT. Again, a huge deficit in the turnover battle killed the Illini. 26-12 loss at Penn State. The Illini had a 9-3 lead in the second half. A bad fumble returned for a td and settling for FGs instead of TDs sunk the Illini. The game was 17-12 into the last minute when Illinois got sacked for a safety in desperation mode and Penn State returned the ensuing onside kick for a td. 30-24 loss at Wisconsin last week in a game where the Illini led 21-3. Again, turnovers and special teams were the story as well as a missed wide-open td when the game was 24-17 late in the 3rd. After the last two road losses, Illinois is playing as though they were the 4th or 5th best team in the conference and the record belies the talent beneath. This is tOSU's biggest challenge since @ Iowa. While I expect them to handle their business, they can get caught up in a tough road game if they don't watch themselves. Illinois' freshman qb is very much like a young Troy Smith and is capable of lifting the team on his shoulders (as well as sinking the team). Mike Gottfried called the Illini QB, Juice Williams, the best true freshman in the country last week on ESPNU's "Inside the Polls." The Illini rush D is among the best in the big10. The pass defense is very shaky, but can come up with huge plays. They are risk takers who happen to guess wrong a bit too much, but, if they guess right, can make the big play. Vontae Davis will probably be in the NFL some day.
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#69
11-04-2006, 05:29 AM
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Re: add these in too
FWIW, the 1st half Hawaii -14 (still -110 at VIP with $200 limit, now -127 at Pinny with $1000 limit) looks like a "safer" bet. I do like the Hawaii -26.5 for the game, but if you look at first half performance for both teams, a 39-14 final score appears more plausible than a 17-7 first half.
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