CFB Project for the Forum

[IggyWH]

They didn't last year after losing to VaTech in what was really their only roadblock to an undefeated season. It's mostly the same players this year and with Louisville to still play Rutgers & Pitt, I think they might believe there is still a chance for them to win the Big East.

[Austiger]

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They didn't last year after losing to VaTech in what was really their only roadblock to an undefeated season. It's mostly the same players this year and with Louisville to still play Rutgers & Pitt, I think they might believe there is still a chance for them to win the Big East.

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Good point.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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On a neutral field, Florida and Louisville wouldn't be a PK. MT2R knows deep down I'm right. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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MT2R is a slave to power ranking for making spread estimates, particularly Sagarin predictor and dunkel index. With this week's outcomes, L'ville will rise quite a bit but the public SEC sentiment would balance out the difference.

MT2R would be all over Florida at pk, but wouldn't want to cross the 3 in betting this game.

L'ville is surprisingly better than I thought, but I would be a bettor on Florida at pk. I just think that would be the line.

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What do you think of some of the lines in the experiment? Specifically,

UF -6.5 @ FSU
UF -10 v. Arkansas

Miami +19.5 @ UL
UL -3 @ Rutgers
UL +1 @ Pitt

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The pitt line is indeed out-of-whack

it will be L'ville -5 or so is my guess


I expect Arkansas to be better than +10 or you'll see my money jumping to the Razorbacks


Miami was definitely not that big of an underdog v L'ville, but, in retrospect, 19.5 looks good.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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On a neutral field, Florida and Louisville wouldn't be a PK. MT2R knows deep down I'm right. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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It's also true that MT2R would take LSU as a pk against anybody in the country, except possibly tOSU.

[jstnrgrs]

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First, here's my approach. I used Sagarin to find the pointspread for each game, then used this to convert the spreads to moneylines. For those outside of the chart, I simply estimated. It shouldn't be too much error, since the difference between 95 and 97 is fairly negligible. Anyways, I then generated a random number for each game which determined the outcome. I ran 100000 seasons, and then found which percent of the time each team was undefeated or one loss. So, here are the results, you'll probably expect them.

Percent Florida undefeat:
3.7100

Percent Florida one loss:
16.3240

Percent Louisville undefeat:
8.9220

Percent Louisville one loss:
28.7220

Some notes: Sagarin hasn't been updated yet, so Louisville will probably win more once their win over WVU is taken into account. Also, I neglected juice, assuming that the moneyline was a true representation of the win/loss percentage of the game.

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I don't know waht their saragin ratings are, but is Florida rated ahaed of Louisville? If so, doesn't that penalized Florida.

Suppose the Chicago Bears played a college football season. Wouldn't their chances of going undefeated be very high? Would we then say that their undefeated season isn't as impressive, because they are predicted to go undefeated against that schedule?

[MyTurn2Raise]

L'Ville is ahead of Florida based on predictor

this doesn't include last night's game

[TwoNiner]

Looking at Gold Sheet power ratings even before Louisville handling WVU, Louisville would be favored by 6-7 @ Rutgers. I think the situation and the ratings boost from yesterday's game keep the line right around there. Same neighborhood for Pitt.