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#11
11-03-2006, 04:34 PM
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Re: river valuebet, how much?
[ QUOTE ]
Joe, you're wrong. Not betting this flop is horrible. [/ QUOTE ] Tell me, what card can your opponent hit on the turn that could possibly improve their hand? Another 9? So they make 9's full, while you have them beat with Aces full. Perhaps they have pocket 9's, and you have you beat already. But wouldn't you expect them to lead the flop hoping you hit trip aces so they can take all of your chips since they know that an ace will not fold this hand? Or maybe they are slowplaying it too? Tell me why trying to extract the maximum out of this particluar hand is wrong, when the only other option is to force your opponent out? Explain your logic. Share your line here. Simply saying someones stategy is wrong without backing it up is pointless. 
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#12
11-03-2006, 04:58 PM
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Re: river valuebet, how much?
[ QUOTE ]
Tell me, what card can your opponent hit on the turn that could possibly improve their hand? [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I want you to tell me what card can your opponent hit on the turn that could possibly improve their hand to a second-best hand that will pay you off. If he has a pocket pair, when he hits he's ahead and you're drawing to 4-10 outs. If he has a worse ace, when he hits, he's ahead and you're drawing to 3 outs (and a few more chop outs). [ QUOTE ] Perhaps they have pocket 9's, and you have you beat already. But wouldn't you expect them to lead the flop hoping you hit trip aces so they can take all of your chips since they know that an ace will not fold this hand? Or maybe they are slowplaying it too? [/ QUOTE ] Or maybe he's slowplaying a worse ace. In fact, I'd say it's downright likely he's doing so. Or mayhaps he's check-calling with a pocket pair because there are two aces on board so omg you can't possibly have an ace here! [ QUOTE ] Tell me why trying to extract the maximum out of this particluar hand is wrong, when the only other option is to force your opponent out? [/ QUOTE ] Extracting the maximum is obviously the goal this hand, so it isn't wrong. We're not forcing the opponent out when we expect him to call with a worse hand. Hence, the "value" in "value bet."
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#14
11-03-2006, 05:01 PM
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Re: river valuebet, how much?
[ QUOTE ]
you're missing out on huge value from good hands by going for meaningless value against [censored] hands. [/ QUOTE ] I am? I'm arguing for a flop bet here. He's going to stack worse aces a lot. And TT-KK or whatver isn't an automatic fold on the flop. By betting, he's always going to get called by hands that drawing to 3 outs, while sometimes getting called by hands that are drawing to 2 outs.
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#15
11-03-2006, 05:03 PM
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Re: river valuebet, how much?
i agree that not betting the flop is definately losing value from hands that are going to stay in, but i didn't and, got where i am. so what am i betting to extract max value on the river how it wound up?
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#17
11-03-2006, 05:32 PM
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Re: river valuebet, how much?
So instead of considering previous information such as table image, trends in play, etc, we are going to assume that our villian here would play the hand the exact same way that you would, right? So in essence, if he hit, he is going to lead the flop. If he was on a play with a made hand, he might have been looking to check raise the flop. If he was looking to c/r the flop, again, exactly how you would play the hand, and missed the opportunity because it was checked back to him, would you have led 80 into that pot on the turn? I think not...I think you would have led with a 1/2-3/4 pot size bet to either induce action or force the villian out. So your conventional thinking didn't work in this situation as it is listed, and would have failed to extract either max equity or the information needed to lay the hand down. Again, I think the hand was played very well given the circumstances, and again, My bet would be 300 on the river.
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#19
11-03-2006, 05:42 PM
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Re: river valuebet, how much?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Tell me, what card can your opponent hit on the turn that could possibly improve their hand? [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I want you to tell me what card can your opponent hit on the turn that could possibly improve their hand to a second-best hand that will pay you off. If he has a pocket pair, when he hits he's ahead and you're drawing to 4-10 outs. If he has a worse ace, when he hits, he's ahead and you're drawing to 3 outs (and a few more chop outs). [ QUOTE ] Perhaps they have pocket 9's, and you have you beat already. But wouldn't you expect them to lead the flop hoping you hit trip aces so they can take all of your chips since they know that an ace will not fold this hand? Or maybe they are slowplaying it too? [/ QUOTE ] Or maybe he's slowplaying a worse ace. In fact, I'd say it's downright likely he's doing so. Or mayhaps he's check-calling with a pocket pair because there are two aces on board so omg you can't possibly have an ace here! [ QUOTE ] Tell me why trying to extract the maximum out of this particluar hand is wrong, when the only other option is to force your opponent out? [/ QUOTE ] Extracting the maximum is obviously the goal this hand, so it isn't wrong. We're not forcing the opponent out when we expect him to call with a worse hand. Hence, the "value" in "value bet." [/ QUOTE ] Can this go in the FAQ?
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#20
11-03-2006, 06:44 PM
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Re: river valuebet, how much?
[ QUOTE ]
So instead of considering previous information such as table image, trends in play, etc, we are going to assume that our villian here would play the hand the exact same way that you would, right? So in essence, if he hit, he is going to lead the flop. If he was on a play with a made hand, he might have been looking to check raise the flop. If he was looking to c/r the flop, again, exactly how you would play the hand, and missed the opportunity because it was checked back to him, would you have led 80 into that pot on the turn? I think not...I think you would have led with a 1/2-3/4 pot size bet to either induce action or force the villian out. So your conventional thinking didn't work in this situation as it is listed, and would have failed to extract either max equity or the information needed to lay the hand down. Again, I think the hand was played very well given the circumstances, and again, My bet would be 300 on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand what you're trying to say here. If he checkraises the flop, I probably get out of my chair and do some sort of happy dance. Then, I either call or push. Call for when the opponent is aggressive and/or likely to bluff big on the turn; push when I think I'll get action from those worse aces. That's where reads come in. Anyway, the point is that you have the best hand, and you want to get money in the pot. There are tons of second-best hands out there that will pay you off when you do so. Hence, the value bet.
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