Jibba's Football Picks 11/3

[Jibba]

Well, I'm slowly trying to dig myself out of the hole I've gotten myself into during the first half of the season. Could be a lot worse, but I'm still down at least a few units each on NFL and NCAA. But you gotta keep trying in order to improve. So here we go.

NFL:

St. Louis -2.5 v. KC, -105 for 2 units. KC is coming off 2 big home wins, but they're not the same team on the road. Add in that St. Louis is no easy place to play and I think that under a FG is good value.

Den +2.5 @ Pitt, -105 for 1.5 units. Like many others here, I don't understand this line the way both teams have been playing. Right now, Denver is the better team. I know it's in Pitt, but I'll gladly take the points and expect Denver to get back to its stingy ways.

New England -3 v. Indy, -112 for 1 unit. If I had been smart enough to grab this one earlier it would be a bigger play, but not at -3. Maybe it's a homer pick but I think Dillon and Maroney will have big days against a terrible run D. There are issues with the conditions of the field in Gillette so this very well could be a low scoring game. I look forward to getting back to the good old days of Bill Belichick driving Peyton and the Colts crazy.

Minn/SF over 42.5 -110 for 1.5 units. I'm riding the train on San Fran and the over after they've given up 40 points in two straight weeks. San Fran just has a way of making everybody's pass offense look good.

Teaser:

Chi -7.5 & Denver +8.5 for 2 units. Might only be half of a Wong teaser, but I feel pretty safe with the Chicago half of it.

NCAA:

Was on Louisville for 3 units last night. Not a bad way to start the week.

Tenn +1 (1 unit, -109) and +3 (2 units, +101) v. LSU. I'll be the first to admit I just don't see why the Vols are getting points at home. I know that Tennessee hasn't looked great lately, but I am liking the home dog here. Admittedly, LSU's two previous road games were against tougher competition, but they don't have a single road win this year.

Missouri +7 @ Nebraska, -109 for 1 unit. Wish I had hit this one harder. These two haven't had a game against each other decided by 7 or less since '98, but that's not going to discourage me too much. Seven points is just too much IMO.

Virginia Tech -2.5 @ Miami, -103 for 1 unit.

BC -4 @ Wake, -102 for 2 units. Eagles are playing their best football of the season right now. I couldn't have been much more impressed with the way they looked last week.

OK State/Texas over 62.5, -108 for 2 units. The past 3 matchups have averaged 79 points and I don't see why this will play out any differently. OK State's recent matchups: 41-29, 33-34, 42-32, 27-31, 25-34. None were exactly against powerhouse offenses either.

Didn't plan on taking this many games this week, but I felt good about more games than I expected. We'll see I guess. 1 unit = $10.