5/10: AQ flop peel

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I peel the turn if either a Q or an A hits regardless of BB staying in or not. I will have 4 outs to nut straight, 2 to trips and 3 to aces up. Yeah, 5 of them are dirty but getting 7:1 and considering the fact I may even have the best hand against SB's AJ/AT/TT/QQ and BB's gutshot I take it any day.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really? We don't have much of a read on SB. What we do have is that he's loose, fairly passive pf, and passive postflop.

Say you spike a Q and he bets into two opponents again. What's his range? pf I think we can put him on 99+ (99 may be a bit of a stretch), AJ+ (maybe ATs, but maybe not AJo). His continuation bet on the flop doesn't mean a whole lot; I think lots of times 99 or TT will still fire there. Once he gets called in two places AND bets a Q turn, what are we ahead of? AJ. That's it. Maybe TT, but I think a lot of players will check there knowing the best they can hope for is a call, and at worst they get raised. Our straight outs are now outs to a chop against any other A. So if we spike a Q, I don't think we have the outs to justify a peel.

What if we hit a non-spade A? We're now ahead of KQ, if he even 3bets that pf. TT is even less likely to fire here than it is on a KQJx board. Maaaaybe QQ fires, but that's a lot like the TT on a KQJx board. Other than that, we're hoping he's on another AQ. Every other hand in his range has us smoked, and again, against a big part of his range our T outs are to a chop.

If we spike the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] we're in much better shape with our nut flush draw. In that case its probably a dirt simple peel. But in the other cases, I don't think we have as many outs as you do. I certainly don't count T's as four full outs since we'll chop so often when that hits. The times we don't chop when it hits, we're often drawing dead (the only times we're live being when he's firing again with TT on KQJx or QQ on AKJx). And let's not forget BB being in with god knows what. If SB has an A, and BB has a T, I'm screwed both coming and going.

So in the actual hand, the action went:

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero...

This is why I wanted to post. I peeled in the hopes of spiking, I spiked, and then thought, "[censored]. I'm hosed."

I'd love to hear some thoughts on what you guys peg his range as on the turn when he bets again and how many outs you think hero has at this point.

[Bullitos]

I would fold that Ac turn, is that bad? Too many combos 3-bet hands are beating you. Also BB is still in and keeps overcalling on this relatively dangerous board. You may have some outs to improve, but on the other hand, every out could be dirty, maybe except for another A (but there is a good possibility someone else has at least 1 A). Foldddddd

[ajm36]

I think the flop call is a given. If I hit a Q, I'm calling again on the turn still with str8 outs and and possible trip possibilities. I raise any A on the turn and call with 2-pair on the river...SB overbets everytime and BB overcalls everytime. I probably call on the river with a pair of queens.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise any A on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
What on earth are you hoping he has when you raise?

[Thorv]

Call. With SB's numbers, his 3-bet range could be huge. The idea of reraising for HU could be even more of a reason to believe his range is huge here. Worse hands: AT, Ax, KQ, KT, QT, JT, QQ, TT, maybe suited Kx or 99. You said SB sucks.... And I'm not even worried about the BB LP here. If he is so LP, he could easily have something like suited Ax or Kx, or a spade draw.

Is it worth considering your recent play/table image here? Would that give SB any more of a reason to reraise PF?

I call this A turn, but had it been a Q, I'm out.

-Very interested in seeing their hole cards

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. With SB's numbers, his 3-bet range could be huge. The idea of reraising for HU could be even more of a reason to believe his range is huge here. Worse hands: AT, Ax, KQ, KT, QT, JT, QQ, TT, maybe suited Kx or 99.

[/ QUOTE ]
Right, I completely agree. I goofed a bit in that the flop peel is almost worth it for my T outs alone, even though sometimes they end up being a split.

So my real question is more about when the turn comes a Q or A and SB leads again.

I'm pretty sure most will be surprised by the hands shown down and I'm pretty disappointed that there's been so little discussion about ranges and probable play on the turn.

[Thorv]

[ QUOTE ]
I call this A turn, but had it been a Q, I'm out.

[/ QUOTE ]

[PokerSparky]

[ QUOTE ]

So in the actual hand, the action went:

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero...


[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, when villain still bets into two players on this board, I hate my hand. Anyone who says raise the turn is insane IMO. The only hands that we beat on the turn aren't calling a raise IMO. I call the turn, but I'm really not sure it's right.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? We don't have much of a read on SB. What we do have is that he's loose, fairly passive pf, and passive postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

All I got from your original post was that he was 40/15 and bad. If he is passive in addition I am not sure about my first advice regarding the Q. However I will give it a go:

I would love to try and estimate our implied odds from peeling the Q turn from hand ranges, but I have no idea as to how to estimate BB's hand range. So a more ad hoc version would be:

- straight outs: lets say we chop 25% of the time and win the whole pot 75% of the time. Also assume the pot when splitting is 8.5 and the pot when winning outright will be 8.5 50%, 9.5 20% and 10.5 5% of the times. The odds from spiking a T is then

(1/4)*4.25 + (1/2)*8.5 + 0.2*9.5 + 0.05*10.5 = 7.7

- trips outs. Assume our trips are good 33% of the time and that we get 9 on average when ahead. Implied odds from hitting are:

(1/3)*9 - 2/3 = 2.33

- Aces up outs: Assume aces up are good enough to win 25% of the time and that we win 9 on average when ahead. Implied odds from hitting are:

0.25*9 - 0.75 = 1.5

All in all our implied odds from peeling a Q with the above assumptions are

(4/46)*7.7 + (2/46)*2.33 + (3/46)*1.5 - 37/46 = 2/46


I think the assumptions on implied odds are reasonable, but again this is very ad hoc. What is important is how much we can expect to win when spiking a T. If we only win 7 BBs on average instead of 7.7 BBs. The peel becomes -EV.

All in all I think its extremely marginal though and I wont berate you from peeling nor folding.