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#12
11-02-2006, 09:44 PM
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Re: Is this bad?
Cool, thanks for all that Leader. I think it's near impossible to use math to come to a confident decision here though. We don't know anything about villain's range, and what he is capable of showing down, overplaying etc... And as you mentioned, to know if the checkraise line is correct, we'd have to also consider the EV of other alternative lines.. One thing I noticed in your calculations is that you only gave me 8 outs against villain.. I think I quite often have another additional 6 outs, but that just complicates things even more.
Anyways, thanks again man.. I appreciate you taking the time to break down the math of this scenario. 
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#13
11-02-2006, 10:18 PM
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Re: Is this bad?
LEADER:
Well done. Thanks for that, I definitely learned a thing or two. But next time, maybe a proof read wouldn't hurt. Spelling and grammar errors, although not usually bothersome, do make it difficult to understand a few of your points. GEHRIG: Could you, or anyone else, explain this flop c/r argument further? In my opinion, villain is calling your check/raise on the flop much more often than on the turn. A turn check/raise is always more powerful and indicates more strength. If you do check/raise the flop and villain calls, then you're planning to continue betting on the turn, correct? Here is the only place I see the benefit of the flop c/r. Your 2sb or 1bb flop c/r + your follow-up turn bet of 1bb = 2bb. With the c/r turn, you have the flop call (1sb or .5bb) + turn c/r (2bb) = 2.5bb. So if he's folding the same percentage of the time in both of these scenarios, then the flop c/r is better. Is this where your argument stems or am I way off base?
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#15
11-02-2006, 10:26 PM
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Re: Is this bad?
Why don't you donk the flop? This is a good board for you to just lead. Maybe you pick up the pot, maybe the other 2 come along (great). The turn raise never looks like a Tx holding when I'm vil and you're you, precisely because I do fold overcards--looks more like an 8x or a mid or low pair. If you had Tx (or wanted to represent it), you raise the river (especially if the river is blank and this is a bluff). Of course, all standard disclaimers because I suck.
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#16
11-02-2006, 10:32 PM
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Re: Is this bad?
[ QUOTE ]
LEADER: Well done. Thanks for that, I definitely learned a thing or two. But next time, maybe a proof read wouldn't hurt. Spelling and grammar errors, although not usually bothersome, do make it difficult to understand a few of your points. [/ QUOTE ] lol I suck at writing sometimes. I rushed this one out to finish it before the end one of my classes. This is a hard kind of post to write too because it has so much math in it. Also, explaining combos of events without run-on sentences is beyond my ability.
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#17
11-02-2006, 10:47 PM
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Re: Is this bad?
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's near impossible to use math to come to a confident decision here though. [/ QUOTE ] Well, I think we could get a decent model. It would just be very complicated. For example, we could assign him an aggressive range, a neutral range and a passive range. Then we calculate the EV vs. those ranges. The total EV would be each of these EV's times our estimate of their probability (which we could guesstimate from a large PT database) added together. If I have the time, I may take a look at this hand in more detail.
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#18
11-02-2006, 11:07 PM
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Re: Is this bad?
[ QUOTE ]
c/r the flop not the turn. giving him the business on the turn doesnt actually get u extra fold equity but it costs u a ton more [/ QUOTE ] Well I think that defeats the purpose of the bluff.. He is alot less likely to fold a chunk of his overcard range to a flop raise, so it might end up being necessary to fire again on the river in that case. C/R flop, Bet blank turn and get called, and then watch him check behind on the river with his KQ = mega-gay.
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#19
11-03-2006, 12:00 AM
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Re: Is this bad?
I would definitely be check-raising the flop in this hand with the intention of betting both the turn and river UI.
On this particular turn card I would expect your opponent to fold most unpaired holdings once you slap him with a raise, so it isn't actually all that bad on this board imo... but you didn't know that the T was sliding off the deck and I'm not sure what other cards would make this line viable as far as its fold equity goes.
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#20
11-03-2006, 12:03 AM
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Re: Is this bad?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] c/r the flop not the turn. giving him the business on the turn doesnt actually get u extra fold equity but it costs u a ton more [/ QUOTE ] Well I think that defeats the purpose of the bluff.. He is alot less likely to fold a chunk of his overcard range to a flop raise, so it might end up being necessary to fire again on the river in that case. C/R flop, Bet blank turn and get called, and then watch him check behind on the river with his KQ = mega-gay. [/ QUOTE ] hes calling ur turn lead with basically the same hands hes calling a turn c/r with
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