Hand vs Stoxtrader - Page 2

PokerBob · #11 02-02-2006, 01:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
6 handed game.

Solid LAG/TAG opens in the CO (which can be hands like T9o, A7o, etc), I 3 bet from the button with 66. Stoxtrader in the SB has a long delay (not normal for him though it can occasionally happen just coincidentally) and then caps. Stox is very aware of both me and CO. CO folds. I call.

Flop Tc9d5c. Stox bets, I call. I have 6c in my hand.

I'm silently hoping for a red king to come on the turn so I can just fold.

Turn 9s. Stox checks, I check. Ok.

River 7h. Stox bets. I wanna fold, but call.

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IMO there is soooo much metagame and posturing going on in this hand that the right move is likely impossible to decipher from merely reading the HH, but i'll take a stab. IMO STox's range is not very large here, as he is OOP vs. 2 decent players. the flop seems standard. when he checks the turn, I feel like he is either setting you up for a c/r with a big pair, or he has AK-AJ and doesn't want you popping him with a hand that he has a fair number of outs against. IMO his river bet means his hand is very weak or very strong. i think he either has AA/KK and really wants a call or he has AQ-AJs and hopes you'll fold as he cannot win the pot any other way. IMO if he has AK he check/calls the river.

cartman · #12 02-02-2006, 01:40 AM

I think I would have bet the turn here intending to fold to a checkraise or a river donk. Assuming his uncharacteristic hesitation was more than just a coincidence (a questionable assumption, I realize), the hands I could see him agonizing over whether to cap would be big Aces and medium to big (but not huge) pocket pairs.

So unless he would often checkraise the turn here with a monster (including an overpair), it looks to me like you are either in front or behind 77 or 88, which I don't even know if he would have capped with preflop facing a raise and a reraise. This is enough to make me bet the turn as well as a blank river.

That said, I'm sure you know better than I do.

What was your thought process when you decided to check the turn?

Thanks,
Cartman

PokerBob · #13 02-02-2006, 01:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would have bet the turn here intending to fold to a checkraise or a river donk.

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i have never played with stox, so i may be assuming to much here. but my impression is that he is a tricky [censored], who is not above c/ring that turn with just AK-AQ.

etizzle · #14 02-02-2006, 02:14 AM

[quote
my impression is that he is a tricky [censored], who is not above c/ring that turn with just AK-AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

this assumption would be incorrect in my experience.

Schneids, fold this river all day.

phish · #15 02-02-2006, 02:42 AM

I think a call is clearly warranted. The likihood that he has AK/AQ is clearly high enough.
A check by Stox here implies very strongly AK or AQ. Hence if he checks, Schneids will bet any hand that can beat AQ (or bluff sometimes if he can't). Stox will be faced with a tough decision whether to pay off.
Instead, STox may well choose to bet his hand and possibly fold an AQ tie, or maybe even get a weaker hand to call. (Betting AK unimproved for value is actually not rare in tough high stakes games)

I wouldn't be surprised if Stox turns over anything from AQ to trips here, but I don't think you're making a big mistake calling.

tongni · #16 02-02-2006, 02:49 AM

Kidding? How can you fold? Is he really going to check AK twice?

If he checks again on the river, would you bet or check?

flawless_victory · #17 02-02-2006, 02:56 AM

i would rather raise then fold.

Surf · #18 02-02-2006, 03:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think a call is clearly warranted. The likihood that he has AK/AQ is clearly high enough.
A check by Stox here implies very strongly AK or AQ. Hence if he checks, Schneids will bet any hand that can beat AQ (or bluff sometimes if he can't). Stox will be faced with a tough decision whether to pay off.
Instead, STox may well choose to bet his hand and possibly fold an AQ tie, or maybe even get a weaker hand to call. (Betting AK unimproved for value is actually not rare in tough high stakes games)

I wouldn't be surprised if Stox turns over anything from AQ to trips here, but I don't think you're making a big mistake calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know AK-hi value bets definitely happen in this game, but there's no reason for schneids to call a river bet here with a weak, lone A.

Surf

PokerMike · #19 02-02-2006, 03:50 AM

I played a hand nearly exactly the same as this one vs stox a few days ago. The only differences were that the Button openraised and from what i remember he was more LAG than TAG, i 3bet with 66, stox capped and i check-called every street on a T hi paired board(he bet the turn btw) and was shown AQo.

vkh · #20 02-02-2006, 09:17 AM

The only truly aggressive action Stox took in this hand was capping pre-flop. The flop continuation bet after capping is almost automatic. Betting the river against an opponent who never once took the lead in the hand really doesn't do much to define his hand (his range is basically still what it was when he capped pre-flop). So...I like a call here.

Also, checking behind on the turn and mucking to a river bet really strikes me as scared poker. Why is everyone fearing Stox to the point of checking and mucking without offering ANY resistance??

-v