Guy is 11/5/3 - I have AA OMG - Page 7

ColdSteel · #61 10-31-2006, 04:33 PM

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You say he C/Rs AQ 100% of the time that he has it. That's very wrong.

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How does he play AQ? bet-fold? bet-call? check-fold?
How does he play AK?
What hands does he CR?

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He c/fs AQ, obviously. He's tight, not stupid.

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OOPS. Every time I said "AQ" I meant KQ.

snowbank · #62 10-31-2006, 04:37 PM

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Snowbank - why bet this flop, and can you tell me what value there is ?

True

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True,

Sure. You have AA. You know villan is a tight player here and probably has JJ-AA. When the flop hits you know you are probably beat, because there is very little chance he has AA, because you have 2 of them. KK and QQ both beat you, and you are ahead of JJ. If you bet the flop he probably folds JJ, possibly the only hand you'd be ahead of, but this is not a hand where you are trying to extract value from a possible worse hand. I guess there's a chance he has AK(?) I don't use pt so I'm not sure if AK is in his range.(it's really a moot point though because he's not going to be eager to get money in here with AK anyways) Poker is a game of minimizing your own mistakes, and maximizing your opponents mistakes. You may be thinking, "get value" when you see AA, but this is not a situation that warrants getting value. The "value" in this hand is not making a mistake on your part. You not betting the flop leaves you open to your opponent maximizing your mistake.

Now let's see how the hand would play out:

If you bet the flop and are raised, you fold. If you bet the hand and are called, you shut down, and see how the rest of the hand proceeds, probably folding to much more betting by your opponent. If you bet the hand and he folds, you have the best hand.(note: This is one of the only times you will have the best hand in a situation like this) I know, you have AA and you would love it to be the best hand because it's AA, but it's just one pair. If you bet and are called, villan checks behind on the turn after you check then river you can decide on blocking bet or check-calling, but that's the only spot I could see putting more money into this pot if you are called on your cbet. Betting this flop let's you know how to proceed with the rest of the hand. Not betting this flop leaves you playing the rest of the hand blind and hoping(?) he has AK, when you are really just continuing for curiosity, because you are probably behind here.

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thoughts true?

True · #63 10-31-2006, 04:55 PM

hey Snowbank, my computer actually crashed when I was writing a response, then crashed again when went to write one again so I just forgot.

Alright my take on it is this :
IF I knew he had JJ KK QQ I would probably check behind, and then fold if he bet. I think he probably has AK aswell and this is the reason I am checking as I don't think he will call my bet. I don't see any reason to bet the flop as JJ probably will just check down.

The Turn :
He bets into me, my range for him is like AK, QQ and KK, I thought at the time he may have KQ aswell and I have just counterfeit that so my plan was to call this weak looking bet and then bet the river for value.

The River :
This is my main concern, The pot is offering me 2:1 and I think his range is like AK, KK, QQ and a misguided KQ. The reason I posted was the river and for what other people thought of his ranges at this point.

I think a bet on the flop is bad for the fact that I don't think anything I am beating can call and it is just a wasted bet.

True

edit : I would say my betting ranges here are like : KK, QQ, AQ, AJ and PERHAPS JJ although I don't think I have AQ AJ or JJ here very often.

snowbank · #64 10-31-2006, 05:00 PM

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I think a bet on the flop is bad for the fact that I don't think anything I am beating can call and it is just a wasted bet.

True

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This is simple thiking. That is a generic response, and that's not the right way to think in this situation. Look back to my post, and re-read the part where I talked about what type of hand this is. This ISN'T a hand where you are trying to get value out of based on villans range. You need to get beyond the fact that you have AA in this hand, and that you are wasting a bet because he's not calling with a worse hand.

Speedlimits · #65 10-31-2006, 05:02 PM

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why dont we just add villains 9T and TJ into the mix then, obvious raise sorry....

edit : ok let's now discuss 200nl and 25nl

Snowbank - why bet this flop, and can you tell me what value there is ?

True

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You bet this flop because you showed pre flop aggression and you want to win the pot. If he calls you slow down, if he raies you fold.

True · #66 10-31-2006, 05:03 PM

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I think a bet on the flop is bad for the fact that I don't think anything I am beating can call and it is just a wasted bet.

True

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This is simple thiking. That is a generic response, and that's not the right way to think in this situation. Look back to my post, and re-read the part where I talked about what type of hand this is. This ISN'T a hand where you are trying to get value out of based on villans range. You need to get beyond the fact that you have AA in this hand, and that you are wasting a bet because he's not calling with a worse hand.

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I would say that this is a very basic response....

If you think, what is the point of a bet? If villain only holds KKQQJJ, what is the point of a bet?

I don't see why check/folding down isn't the best play? The 8% equity that JJ has in the pot is not worth a continuation bet of 3/4 of the pot.

True

True · #67 10-31-2006, 05:03 PM

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why dont we just add villains 9T and TJ into the mix then, obvious raise sorry....

edit : ok let's now discuss 200nl and 25nl

Snowbank - why bet this flop, and can you tell me what value there is ?

True

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You bet this flop because you showed pre flop aggression and you want to win the pot. If he calls you slow down, if he raies you fold.

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I can win this pot by checking, I can lose money by betting....

True

bilbo-san · #68 10-31-2006, 07:11 PM

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You say he C/Rs AQ 100% of the time that he has it. That's very wrong.

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How does he play AQ? bet-fold? bet-call? check-fold?
How does he play AK?
What hands does he CR?

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He c/fs AQ, obviously. He's tight, not stupid.

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OOPS. Every time I said "AQ" I meant KQ.

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While I agree that he is certainly c/ring with KQ, I fail to see how that makes betting the flop a good plan for you.

You have outs vs. KQ so you shouldn't be happy about the fact that he will c/r with it.

True,

Why is villain calling with AK preflop if he will fold now? He surely is not calling just to flop QJT.

Does he have enough history with you to know that you can beat AK if you bet here?

If you 3-bet as light as I suspect you do, I doubt Villain is folding AK here to any bet. I don't think he c/rs it, but he'll probably call bets on all 3 streets with it.

True · #69 10-31-2006, 07:12 PM

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You say he C/Rs AQ 100% of the time that he has it. That's very wrong.

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How does he play AQ? bet-fold? bet-call? check-fold?
How does he play AK?
What hands does he CR?

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He c/fs AQ, obviously. He's tight, not stupid.

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OOPS. Every time I said "AQ" I meant KQ.

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While I agree that he is certainly c/ring with KQ, I fail to see how that makes betting the flop a good plan for you.

You have outs vs. KQ so you shouldn't be happy about the fact that he will c/r with it.

True,

Why is villain calling with AK preflop if he will fold now? He surely is not calling just to flop QJT.

Does he have enough history with you to know that you can beat AK if you bet here?

If you 3-bet as light as I suspect you do, I doubt Villain is folding AK here to any bet. I don't think he c/rs it, but he'll probably call bets on all 3 streets with it.

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fwiw I don't 3-bet light very often, especially not against this type of player and in this position.

If he has AK, I doubt he calls 2 streeets against me on this board. If I check I may get him to call the turn and river.

True

bilbo-san · #70 10-31-2006, 07:45 PM

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fwiw I don't 3-bet light very often, especially not against this type of player and in this position.

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That may be, but if you 3-bet light vs. other players, Villain might not quite get the distinction. We know he's pretty tight but you haven't told us how smart you think he is.