Guy is 11/5/3 - I have AA OMG - Page 6

ColdSteel · #51 10-31-2006, 03:57 PM

It's interesting that you will say
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I find it lol that you think he won't call with AK on this flop -- he'll felt AK. Guys this tight never play correctly vs. good SLAGs and LAGs.

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...and then say...

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If he c/r me Im folding

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Then you're folding the best hand too often. He check-raises AK and AQ just about 100% of the time he has those hands, which is very often.

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Lol. This is horrifically wrong.

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Seems to me your two statements are directly contradictory. He has a postflop aggression of 3. Not passive, not maniac. There are CRs in there.

snowbank · #52 10-31-2006, 03:57 PM

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Snowbank - why bet this flop, and can you tell me what value there is ?

True

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True,

Sure. You have AA. You know villan is a tight player here and probably has JJ-AA. When the flop hits you know you are probably beat, because there is very little chance he has AA, because you have 2 of them. KK and QQ both beat you, and you are ahead of JJ. If you bet the flop he probably folds JJ, possibly the only hand you'd be ahead of, but this is not a hand where you are trying to extract value from a possible worse hand. I guess there's a chance he has AK(?) I don't use pt so I'm not sure if AK is in his range.(it's really a moot point though because he's not going to be eager to get money in here with AK anyways) Poker is a game of minimizing your own mistakes, and maximizing your opponents mistakes. You may be thinking, "get value" when you see AA, but this is not a situation that warrants getting value. The "value" in this hand is not making a mistake on your part. You not betting the flop leaves you open to your opponent maximizing your mistake.

Now let's see how the hand would play out:

If you bet the flop and are raised, you fold. If you bet the hand and are called, you shut down, and see how the rest of the hand proceeds, probably folding to much more betting by your opponent. If you bet the hand and he folds, you have the best hand.(note: This is one of the only times you will have the best hand in a situation like this) I know, you have AA and you would love it to be the best hand because it's AA, but it's just one pair. If you bet and are called, villan checks behind on the turn after you check then river you can decide on blocking bet or check-calling, but that's the only spot I could see putting more money into this pot if you are called on your cbet. Betting this flop let's you know how to proceed with the rest of the hand. Not betting this flop leaves you playing the rest of the hand blind and hoping(?) he has AK, when you are really just continuing for curiosity, because you are probably behind here.

Spy Dog · #53 10-31-2006, 03:58 PM

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I like the turn minraise idea here. Of course there's no way a worse hand calls that raise (yes, you are effectively bluffing), but you can probably save a few bucks if you make that the last money you put in.

If villain folds to the minraise, fine, I'm happy taking it down there given his range. As was mentioned already, he's damn unlikely to value bet his AK on the river if he's that big a nit, so you're not getting any more out of a worse hand anyway.

If villain calls and checks river, you likely saved yourself from his larger river value bet; you get a cheaper showdown.

If he calls and leads river, you know you're beat, and it's an easy fold.

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Everybody please stop with the cheap showdown nonsense. Come ON.

You know how often this Villain lets us check down AA when we are ahead? Zero percent of the time. ZERO.

You really think Villain just calls a turn min-raise with QQ and checks the river? Get over it, puh-lease.

Raising the turn is horrible.

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FWIW, I'm advocating the turn minraise. However, I'm NOT advocating checking behind on the river. I plan to value bet the river if he calls the turn.

Since you are so smart, please tell me the optimal play on the turn if you knew villian had either KK/QQ/AK.

goofyballer · #54 10-31-2006, 04:07 PM

There's 6 combos of sets (3 each of KK/QQ) and 6 of AK, so you have to be pretty damn sure he doesn't play AK exactly like this to fold getting 2:1 on what is essentially a 1:1 shot based on his range. It's still slightly +EV if he only plays AK like this half the time, and given that "like this" = checked flop OOP in WA/WB situation and then bet the next two streets when Hero checked behind flop, I'm not sure you can say that he won't have AK ~30% of the time here.

bilbo-san · #55 10-31-2006, 04:19 PM

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It's interesting that you will say
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I find it lol that you think he won't call with AK on this flop -- he'll felt AK. Guys this tight never play correctly vs. good SLAGs and LAGs.

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...and then say...

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If he c/r me Im folding

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Then you're folding the best hand too often. He check-raises AK and AQ just about 100% of the time he has those hands, which is very often.

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Lol. This is horrifically wrong.

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Seems to me your two statements are directly contradictory. He has a postflop aggression of 3. Not passive, not maniac. There are CRs in there.

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Where did I mention AQ? You say he C/Rs AQ 100% of the time that he has it. That's very wrong.

bilbo-san · #56 10-31-2006, 04:21 PM

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I like the turn minraise idea here. Of course there's no way a worse hand calls that raise (yes, you are effectively bluffing), but you can probably save a few bucks if you make that the last money you put in.

If villain folds to the minraise, fine, I'm happy taking it down there given his range. As was mentioned already, he's damn unlikely to value bet his AK on the river if he's that big a nit, so you're not getting any more out of a worse hand anyway.

If villain calls and checks river, you likely saved yourself from his larger river value bet; you get a cheaper showdown.

If he calls and leads river, you know you're beat, and it's an easy fold.

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Everybody please stop with the cheap showdown nonsense. Come ON.

You know how often this Villain lets us check down AA when we are ahead? Zero percent of the time. ZERO.

You really think Villain just calls a turn min-raise with QQ and checks the river? Get over it, puh-lease.

Raising the turn is horrible.

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FWIW, I'm advocating the turn minraise. However, I'm NOT advocating checking behind on the river. I plan to value bet the river if he calls the turn.

Since you are so smart, please tell me the optimal play on the turn if you knew villian had either KK/QQ/AK.

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Is this a trick question? Calling, obviously.

ColdSteel · #57 10-31-2006, 04:24 PM

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You say he C/Rs AQ 100% of the time that he has it. That's very wrong.

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How does he play AQ? bet-fold? bet-call? check-fold?
How does he play AK?
What hands does he CR?

True · #58 10-31-2006, 04:25 PM

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You say he C/Rs AQ 100% of the time that he has it. That's very wrong.

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How does he play AQ? bet-fold? bet-call? check-fold?
How does he play AK?
What hands does he CR?

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he probably doesn't c/r very often, but I would say like 30% of the time he has KK and QQ he c/rs them. With AQ he probably c/fs (although i doubt he has it) AK he probably c/cs one bet but may just c/f (if he has it)

True

bilbo-san · #59 10-31-2006, 04:29 PM

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You say he C/Rs AQ 100% of the time that he has it. That's very wrong.

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How does he play AQ? bet-fold? bet-call? check-fold?
How does he play AK?
What hands does he CR?

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He c/fs AQ, obviously. He's tight, not stupid.

4_2_it · #60 10-31-2006, 04:29 PM

I really do not see what the big deal is with this hand. You under-represented your hand on the flop and invited many worse hands to bet into you. I can't see a fold once you adopt this line.

I really dislike the flop check behind. That board is much too coordinated and many scare cards will kill your action or beat you. If the flop only contained one B-way card then I like it a lot more.

What hands that you 3-bet with pre-flop are you checking behind here? What range is villain going to put you on? Since he is a nit, he will most likely put you on a big PP, but when you check he discounts that (because he would never check if he were in your shoes).