WPT- Niagara Final 2 Tables hand Draw to the Nuts - Page 4

fukkeneh · #31 10-30-2006, 09:43 PM

I called, I felt I was getting the right odds to draw here.

I also thought there would be huge implied odds if Nam, was slowrolling something big or the big blind having something like 2 pair.

The turn came the 7c and paired the board.

BB - Now checked and Nam leads for 100K

b-komplex · #32 10-30-2006, 09:50 PM

this hand is interesting enough for me to delurk. read through it at lunch and have been thinking about it this afternoon and I really can't see anything to like about an overcall here. I think it would be easy for the villains to put you on exactly Kxh here as nothing else really makes sense. Even if you have a monster here the pot size, board and your image would seem to dictate you play it fast. I think you have some FE for a push and if not you'll suck out anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I don't think a fold on the flop is out of the question if you want to be on the safe side.

EDIT: was writing this up before you posted the turn - hero folds, SB tanks and folds 88 ?

MLG · #33 10-30-2006, 09:57 PM

yikes.
sucks but probably a fold. you're getting close to good odds but you might already be drawing dead, and there is the possibility of a raise from the SB. ick and yuck. I hate folding, but i dont see much choice.

JackOfSpeed · #34 10-30-2006, 10:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yikes.
sucks but probably a fold. you're getting close to good odds but you might already be drawing dead, and there is the possibility of a raise from the SB. ick and yuck. I hate folding, but i dont see much choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

How could he be drawing dead? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

MLG · #35 10-30-2006, 10:11 PM

7 paired the board. he is drawing dead to a fh if anybody has a set A7 or 76.

b-komplex · #36 10-31-2006, 12:45 PM

okay - this is a solid bump and I don't want to be left hanging here. If I'm reading right after Nam's lead on the turn:

Pot $384k
Nam $260k
SB $270k
Hero $510k and action

Things aren't going your way in this hand and I think a muck is your best play. Nam is not giving a lot of respect to the overcall and while it looks like you have implied odds here we can't rule the SB out just yet based on a turn check esp. as the board just paired. Your stack is still healthy enough for you to put this one down and make a run.

namespace · #37 10-31-2006, 01:46 PM

What a great hand; I don't think there is a wrong play here.
Folding seems like a nice safe play.
Pushing seems like you'll be able to get a lot of hands to fold.
Calling seems pretty good because the SB may call along and you could hit your flush.

I'd make a read and trust it in this situation.

Here is my attempt at reading the hands:
I really think NAM here has an overpair and got scared by the Ace and this 100k bet is an attempt to bring it down. My guess is that he thinks someone has a flush draw and someone hit the ace but isn't too confident in the kicker.

I think the SB has a weak Ace or a boat.

I call and evaluate everything again on the river.
I think I have a good enough idea on what their hands are that I could outplay them on the river.

Edit:
This hand confuses me.
I actually push here.
I believe the SB has about 1/2 the amount of chips and don't think Nam is calling a push.
If the SB does have the nuts we still have enough chips.
More likely we see push -> fold -> fold here.

DPK99 · #38 10-31-2006, 02:42 PM

Isn't that a bit of a suspicious bet from Nam? With one player being weak, I doubt he would try a post oak bluff here. Seems to want someone to call. What starting would he have raised 3x with? I doubt any large pairs, which leaves medium pairs and A7 and better as strong possibilities. Either of which could have given him the full house.

And by that, I mean, I totally do not know what I am talking about.

namespace · #39 10-31-2006, 03:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't that a bit of a suspicious bet from Nam? With one player being weak, I doubt he would try a post oak bluff here. Seems to want someone to call. What starting would he have raised 3x with? I doubt any large pairs, which leaves medium pairs and A7 and better as strong possibilities. Either of which could have given him the full house.

And by that, I mean, I totally do not know what I am talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Post Oak bluff by Nam? I don't pick that up at all unless I'm thinking of the wrong definition of the move. He's betting 1/3rd of the pot which to mee seems more of a probe bet. Anything less is getting raised but he didn't commit enough chips to make a tough laydown to a push. What I find suspicious is the call on the flop -- but that could just be Queens that don't believe someone hit the ace or the Ace isn't too confident in their kicker.

If he hit the boat I'd expect him to check the turn hoping that we'd take a stab at it or someone rivers a flush.

If he didn't hit the boat I'd expect him to bet here.
The SB checked which to me spells weakness or nuts. So Nam is going to spend chips to find out who has what and if his hand is good. If this is called I don't really see much more action from Nam.

Jeff76 · #40 10-31-2006, 03:45 PM

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excuse me....i meant i anticipate a push on the turn if a diamond doesn't come, but no more bets if one does

[/ QUOTE ]If they don't put in any more bets when the flush comes, they are both playing very exploitably. You probably won't get a big pay off, but you'll get something.