AK for the mathematically inclined... - Page 2

thirddan · #11 10-24-2006, 09:57 PM

lmd,
for a completely accurate answer that is what would be necessary and if i knew the difference in probabilities then the math could be done, but i dont know this player that well and if i did know the player well enough to do this im not sure the info could be gotten in a manner timely enough to be useful while taking the hand apart during the actual play of the hand...

i suppose that im looking for whether or not check/folding this river should even be considered...lets say for simplicity that he will play KQ/K8/Q8/88/Axc/T9c/98c/87c/T8c/97c/76c this way...should i still be bet/folding the river? or is that costing me a bet?

oh, and if its between doing this math and going to play you should stay home and play chinese poker with your new vietfriends [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The DaveR · #12 10-24-2006, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In order to do the river math here you need to tell me every single hand your opponent can have on this river as well as pointing out any probability differences, that is, while QT and KQ are both possible, he is playing KQ there 100% of the time but only 25% playing QT that way. Give your best estimates and I'll do this nonsense if I feel like it.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you two live together?

thirddan · #13 10-25-2006, 01:32 PM

"Don't you two live together? "

this doesn't mean we ever see each other...

golferbrent · #14 10-30-2006, 01:41 AM

"Nah... Live, in a big pot, closing the action..."

You just answered why a check/call is the line here. Why would you allow yourself to possibly be played off the best hand here? You gain no value by betting here... you only lose value here by being played off the potential best hand.

Abbaddabba · #15 10-30-2006, 02:33 AM

It's so painfully obvious that it isnt a check/call given the information provided.

If you're checking the river, it's because you plan on folding to a bet.

Schaapy · #16 10-31-2006, 04:45 AM

I would of come out betting on the river, with the hopes that MP raises the button off his hand. Players are more likely to call 1 bet twice, then they are to call a double bet once.

thirddan · #17 10-31-2006, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would of come out betting on the river, with the hopes that MP raises the button off his hand. Players are more likely to call 1 bet twice, then they are to call a double bet once.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you think that MP will raise a hand worse than ours causing button told a hand better than ours so that we will win...maybe you want to read the hand again...