#1
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If I make a bet and the line later improves
Is it wise to add additional units to the bet?
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#2
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
It depends on (at least) 2 things imo:
1. How big your bet was as a %age of your bankroll and what your total risk would be when doubling up. 2. How much respect a market move deserves on what you are betting on. If there is lots of public money coming in on the opposite of the side you like in a huge market (say you've got Milwaukee against the Lakers) then you should be more likely to double up. If it is a smaller event, say a Scottish Second division soccer match, I would assume that someone knew something I didn't and would not only not double up but might look to hedge out of my original bet depending on the situation. Anyway, those are the factors imo. As 1 gets smaller and the market in 2 gets bigger, I lean toward betting again. |
#3
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
No.
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#4
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
If nothing has changed and you are use Kelly betsizing you almsot always add to it.
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#5
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
[ QUOTE ]
If nothing has changed and you are use Kelly betsizing you almsot always add to it. [/ QUOTE ] Good answer. If you're using any sort of proportional bet sizing, you should be betting more when the line moves in your favor. |
#6
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
Thanks for the advice. In this case, I had bet 1% of my bankroll on Phoenix tonight, -4.5 -105, and this morning it had moved to -4.5 -102. But now it's irrelevant as the line is currently -4.5 -107.
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#7
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
Even if you buy into a kelly betting system for managing your sports betting bankroll a move from -105 to -102 is hardly worth risking more money.
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#8
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
[ QUOTE ]
Even if you buy into a kelly betting system for managing your sports betting bankroll a move from -105 to -102 is hardly worth risking more money. [/ QUOTE ] ?!? Proportional edges man. I lay more on the line when my edge is bigger than when it isn't. You offer me 20-1 on a 10-1 shot. And I'm there. And with a decent chunk of change... If you up the payout to 25-1. I'll scrape up a few more dollars. |
#9
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
We're talking about a move from -105 to -102. That's really not worth much.
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#10
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Re: If I make a bet and the line later improves
I'm seeing around a recommended 25% increase in bet size at the new level.
I'm not sure if you'd just hope the difference on or how individuals vary depending on that. But isn't a move from -105 to -102 ~3% increase in your edge? And in sportsbetting where edges are typically under 10%. I'd say thats huge. |
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