speculative basketball play OCT-30-2006

almostbusto · #1 10-30-2006, 06:52 PM

I have never handicapped basketball. so buyer beware. i wanted to post this pick to see what everyone thought of it though.

Phoenix-LA U208.5

evidence:

wagerline's consensus- 477 votes for O 263 votes for U. it is widely believed that fading the public is generally a good play.

additionally this will be the first live game that the new basketball will be put into play. all the players have practiced with these balls but a lot of players are saying they aren't happy with them. apparently they are bouncier, basically they play like a fresh brand new ball all the time. they don't soften or wear like leather balls do. anyway i am thinking the new balls might drop totals a couple points.

this begs the question: don't the bookies already know this? i am sure they do and that they took this into account when they made their lines. however, the line opened at 205 and the public knows that the suns are a high powered offense, so how is every BSP going to vote with his dollar? Suns and the over of course.

wiper · #2 10-30-2006, 07:20 PM

in this case, i'd go with the public.

phoenix might score that on their own!!

really though, i can see a 112-108ish game, with kobe putting in 40, and steve nash has 15 assists..

but then, i haven't even THOUGHT about basketball since last may, so what do i know?

almostbusto · #3 10-30-2006, 07:24 PM

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really though, i can see a 112-108ish game, with kobe putting in 40, and steve nash has 15 assists..

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I can see that game happening too. but then again its about probability and not possibility. this isn't a magic pick thats coming through 90% of the time. we just need to beat the vig