99 early position, LAG lookin for action

[Andy Ross]

Actually, I was going to check-call the flop, with the intention of bet-folding the turn on a brick. I don't like a c/r on this flop. I'm either ahead with a lot of turn cards that could ruin my day, or drawing very thin. He'll likely raise any two cards on the flop, so I don't like bet-folding or bet-calling the flop against his ilk either.

The river could be a 3-bet, but here was my thinking: he watched me raise preflop, he raised my turn bet after checking through on the flop. At this point I'm thinking TT or JJ are very likely, KK or AA are likely (*), and AK is there too, since he seemed to play hands strangely.

On the river: if he has AA or KK, what can he beat that I might hold? He would be behind QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88 and AK. What can he beat that bet-calls the turn and donks the river? So I figured he'd call with everything except AK(16), JJ(3) and TT(3), which would raise. Let's say he's twice as likely to have JJ or TT by the way he played. Against his river raising range I'm good less than 50% of the time, so I called.

Against a tricky TAG, I think that AK is a very unlikely holding, but against a tricky LAG, I think he tends to have AK on the end a lot here.

Anyone want the results? No one thinks the turn semi-bluff is bad?

*-now I see that 88 fits quite well with his flop behaviour.