Stars $10 / 180; Top-Two & facing turn decision for all of my chips

[mayesie]

- About 80 players remain

- Villain (UTG + 1) is 45/21/1.4 (turn aggression is at 4.0) after 82 hands

- Table is quite loose. As a whole, pre-flop raises are getting little respect.

Given the manner in which the hand developed, I'm having a hard time putting him on a hand that I'm beating often enough to go all-in. I don't think that calling the turn raise is a viable option:

- A6: possible (6 combinations)
- 87: possible (16 combinations)
- Pair / Heart FD Combo: I suppose something like KhTh, QhTh, QhJh, or JhTh is possible, but there aren't as many combinations because I have the ace-of-hearts.
- Diamond FD: possible, but unlikely because I'd expect a flop raise
- Set: highly unlikely, given the pre-flop & flop action
- Lower two-pair (such as A9 or T9): highly unlikely, given the flop action


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t50/t100
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t100 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t150)</font>, 5 folds, SB calls t50 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t250)</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t300, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t200</font>, UTG+1 calls t200 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t500)</font>, SB folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t700, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t450</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t1100</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???

[mayesie]

I went ahead &amp; performed my calculations, based on the following hand ranges:


- A6 (More Likely Two-Pair): 6 combinations, 20.8% likelihood

- 87 (Straight): 16 combinations, 55.3% likelihood

- KhTh, QhTh, JhTh (Pair / FD): 3 combinations, 10.4% likelihood

- QhJh (Straight / Flush Draw): 1 combination, 3.5% likelihood

- Diamond FD: 5% likelihood (given the way the hand was played)

- Set: 2% likelihood (given the way the hand was played)

- Lower two-pair (such as A9 or T9): 3% likelihood (given the way the hand was played)



With the exception of the final (3) hand ranges, I estimated the likelihood of each range, based upon the card combinations. I lumped the last 3 ranges together, and assigned them a 10% likelihood.

After this, I stoved my winning chances against each hand range, and multiplied each figure by the frequency in which I'm against each range

It turns out that I have ~42.3% chance of winning. The pot odds are about 1.48-1.

Taking these factors (along w/ the status of the tournament) into account, this seems to be an easy push.

Does anyone object to the hand ranges I've assigned to the villain?

[mayesie]

Bumping this, to see if there's any interest in this hand.

Thanks!

[0evg0]

dude if you fold here you should also fold poker in general

[kleath]

[ QUOTE ]
dude if you fold here you should also fold poker in general

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, you're against a bad and loose player and have outs to everything if you are even behind, which I wouldnt say is that often. Fold is terrible.

[mayesie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
dude if you fold here you should also fold poker in general

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, you're against a bad and loose player and have outs to everything if you are even behind, which I wouldnt say is that often. Fold is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the responses. Though it doesn't seem to matter, I see that the converter failed to show the stack sizes.

Before the hand, I had T4110 (well above average), while the villain had T3630.

FWIW, I pushed, and the villain called, showing 8c7c for the straight.

Even with the small range I provided, this was still a +EV shove. It seems that the villain would need to be an uber-rock, to even think about folding.

[kleath]

Your range isnt accounting for the times he's bluffing or has a naked 1 pair hand, a loose player doesnt have to have anything here, its a pretty clear decision and moreso than your numbers show because that range is too tight.