Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Eight

[Performify]

Picks are late but finally here. I put roughly twice as much time in to my analysis this week, trying to correct my downswing from the last two weeks. The writeups are not necessarily up to the usual standard, but the analysis behind the picks is better than ever, I think. My system does not like a lot of plays this week.

As usual, everything is cross posted to http://performify.com where you might find things easier to read...

YTD RESULTS:
10-16-4 on posted picks, -8.24 units (excludes teasers)
1-3-3 on Game of the Week, -10.1 units.
3-2 on Tease of the Week, +1 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -7.24 units

Remember as always, these are graduated units: cut them in half (2u for me = 1u for you) if you're playing traditional 1%-2% of your bankroll units.


Kansas City -4 -102 over Seattle
I grabbed a massive amount of this line when it first opened at KC +2.5, especially in teasers. As soon as I saw Hasselbeck go down in the game last week, I knew he wouldn't be playing this week and I knew it would change this line dramatically. KC reopened at -4, and I still think this game has value. Kansas City has a legendary home field advantage, and for Senaca Wallace making his first NFL start its going to be a long day. Kansas City is playing very, very well on defense right now and the offense is clicking. Chiefs QB Huard is a gametime decision but even if Brody Croyle comes in to back him up, this game will still go KC's way. In addition to Seattle missing their starting QB and RB, they're also missing right tackle Sean Locklear (1-game suspension for a personal conduct violation), and the Chiefs will be setup to capitalize. On offense, LJ has a monster day: last week the Seahawks were gashed for 175 yards at a 5.8-yard average by the Vikings. KC 24, Seattle 10. Game of the Week.

Saints -2 (-105) over Ravens
Both teams come into this game rested and prepared after their byes in Week 7. However, Ravens QB Steve McNair is coming off a Grade 2 concussion and neck sprain from their October 15th game. I look for him to take a couple big hits against a aggressive New Orleans defense, and play very tentative from there, possibly even getting yanked. I've already written this season a couple times about the Ravens being significantly overrated, and I think this is another good opportunity to fade them. Baltimore's defense is strong but they'll be forced to slow down their pass rush, otherwise they'll be forced to cover Reggie Bush 1-on-1 with a linebacker when he lines up in the slot. Saints 21, Ravens 17.

Green Bay -4 (-111) over Arizona
I'm not real happy with where this line has moved to, but its still worth a one unit play in my system. The Packers are rolling on offense, and with Ahman Green back are a much improved unit. Look for AJ Hawk to have a big day against Leinart, Hawk will be targeted for some backside blitzes. The Packers secondary can be tricky and will likely force Leinart in to at least one interception. Packers 24, Arizona 17.

Philly -9 (+106) over Jacksonville
Philly is in an absolute must-win, in a home game right before going on bye. They'll look to put this game away emphatically after losing on the last possession two weeks running. Jacksonville's defense is struggling with several significant injuries which will be the difference here. Eagles 28, Jags 17.

Tease of the Week: Giants -9.5, Pittsburgh -9 (2-team, 7-point teaser)
Teases down to Giants -2.5, Pittsburgh -2. While Pittsburgh is a road favorite here, I think they'll have little trouble handling Oakland by at least a field goal. Likewise with the Giants at home against the Bucs. Lots of value moving these spreads down. Two unit play.


Summary of Picks for Week Eight
<LI>Kansas City -4 (-102): 5.1u to win 5u
<LI>New Orleans -2 (-105) : 3.15u to win 3u
<LI>Green Bay -4 (-111) : 1.11u to win 1u
<LI>Philly -9 (+106) : 1u to win 1.06u
<LI>Teaser: Giants -2.5, Pittsburgh -2 (7-point, 2-team, -120) : 2.4u to win 2u

[MyTurn2Raise]

ty as always for the picks

KC +102 and Philly +110 at Pinny now for anyone else coattailing

[DropGems]

Thanks dude. Good write ups as usual.

[celticGreen]

Thanks for the write-ups -- I'm with you big on NO and Philly.

[rsigley]

I was wondering if you made this pick before Huard was questionable for the KC game or not? Seneca Wallace vs Rookie QB seems like a random game for me that would be best not to bet

[Performify]

Huard is playing.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]

<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks for Week Eight[*]Kansas City -4 (-102): 5.1u to win 5u : WIN +5u[*]New Orleans -2 (-105) : 3.15u to win 3u : LOSS -3.15u[*]Green Bay -4 (-111) : 1.11u to win 1u : WIN +1u[*]Philly -9 (+106) : 1u to win 1.06u : LOSS -1u[*]Teaser: Giants -2.5, Pittsburgh -2 (7-point, 2-team, -120) : 2.4u to win 2u : OPEN[/list]

[/ QUOTE ]

2-2, +1.85u on straight picks. Win on Game of the Week.
Teaser still open with a win on the Giants.

YTD RESULTS:
12-18-4 on posted picks, -6.39 units (excludes teasers)
2-3-3 on Game of the Week, -5.1 units.
3-2 on Tease of the Week, +1 units : tease pending
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): -5.39 units, tease pending




KC game was crazy. Score should have been 31-14 but instead two big KC turnovers including one absolutely crazy turnover on a field goal that was returned for a Seattle TD. KC was dominant on offense and pretty dominant on defense except for one big Seattle drive.

Saints game I'm struck by the glut of turnovers that has plagued most of my big losses this year. Not that I expected the Saints to play a perfect game, but 5 turnovers is well outside the standard deviation for this matchup.

Packers rolled pretty much start to finish as expected.

Philly is going down in flames. Their season is pretty much over at this point. I'll look for opportunities to fade them when they come back from bye.

Giants ended up not needing the points, but the game was pretty close as I did expect, with a 17-3 finish. One Tampa TD there and we're glad we've got the tease. Now open with Pitt -2.

[JJguy]

what's happening to pittsburgh?

I don't have it televised!.

BTW this COLTS/BRONCOS game is INTENSE!

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
what's happening to pittsburgh?

[/ QUOTE ]

two interceptions for touchdowns by the vaunted Raiders defense. That's what's happening.

The one that just happened in the endzone, where Pitt had the chance to tie the game and instead it goes for 6 the other way... that's the one that really hurt.

I hate football.

[Thremp]

Nasty variance. Big Ben throwing 4 picks in one game. Sick.