Top Set on monotone board, maximize profit / limit losses

[Poker879]

Party Poker 5/10NL 6 max. Effective stacks $1200. No reads on villain, my poker tracker is not working at the moment.

Hero is BB with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 2 limps, villain makes it 45 from SB, Hero calls, others fold.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (~110) 2 players.

Villain leads for 80, hero makes it 250, villain min-reraises to 420. Hero?

My thoughts on what villain probably has, are a made flush, or an overpair with flush draw, or possibly A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K, but I feel he would just call with that as apposed to 3 bet. So my options are to push right there or to call and wait for a non-diamond turn. The reason I feel the call and push the turn is the better play, is if I push here and he calls with an overpair, he is not making a mistake because he has 11 outs and has sufficient pot odds to call, but I feel I would probably get his money on a blanked turn anyway. So playing it this way gets him to give me his money either way, and I save money when a diamond hits the turn. Granted, if an \a, K or, Q hits on the turn, I will pay him if that setted him, but I would again pay that anyway if I got it in on the flop and he hit.
The other hand is if he has a flush already. If a non-diamond hits, I'm going to pay him, but I would have paid him regardless if I pushed the flop, however I will get away if the diamond hits the turn.
The downside of this play is 2 things. If he only has a flush draw, he's drawing to about 75/25, and this is far too high of an edge not to push, or if he gets away from his hand on the turn if I do have him beat, but I feel the benefits of the call, bet turn outweighs the downside.

Don't reply saying that I'm a pussy not pushing a ~60/40 advantage on the flop. I have nothing against pushing a 60/40 edge if I am forcing the opponent to make a mistake, but if he is not making a mistake by making the call, than I would prefere to wait for a card and make my edge closer to 80/20. I feel this is similar to if you have QQ and are fairly certain the opponent has AK and he will get it in on the flop weither he hits or not, you are better off to call and see a flop first.

Thoughts?

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 5/10NL 6 max. Effective stacks $1200. No reads on villain, my poker tracker is not working at the moment.

Hero is BB with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 2 limps, villain makes it 45 from SB, Hero calls, others fold.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (~110) 2 players.

Villain leads for 80, hero makes it 250, villain min-reraises to 420. Hero?

My thoughts on what villain probably has, are a made flush, or an overpair with flush draw, or possibly A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K, but I feel he would just call with that as apposed to 3 bet. So my options are to push right there or to call and wait for a non-diamond turn. The reason I feel the call and push the turn is the better play, is if I push here and he calls with an overpair, he is not making a mistake because he has 11 outs and has sufficient pot odds to call, but I feel I would probably get his money on a blanked turn anyway. So playing it this way gets him to give me his money either way, and I save money when a diamond hits the turn. Granted, if an \a, K or, Q hits on the turn, I will pay him if that setted him, but I would again pay that anyway if I got it in on the flop and he hit.
The other hand is if he has a flush already. If a non-diamond hits, I'm going to pay him, but I would have paid him regardless if I pushed the flop, however I will get away if the diamond hits the turn.
The downside of this play is 2 things. If he only has a flush draw, he's drawing to about 75/25, and this is far too high of an edge not to push, or if he gets away from his hand on the turn if I do have him beat, but I feel the benefits of the call, bet turn outweighs the downside.

Don't reply saying that I'm a pussy not pushing a ~60/40 advantage on the flop. I have nothing against pushing a 60/40 edge if I am forcing the opponent to make a mistake, but if he is not making a mistake by making the call, than I would prefere to wait for a card and make my edge closer to 80/20. I feel this is similar to if you have QQ and are fairly certain the opponent has AK and he will get it in on the flop weither he hits or not, you are better off to call and see a flop first.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your logic is sound. Waiting until you have a bigger edge to get the money in is a good way of thinking about hands, and it is useful in many situations where you have a made hand on a draw-heavy board.

P.S. This guy does not have the naked A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]; he's got at least an overpair.

[JMa]

Folding a 60/40 situation is awful regardless if villain is making a mistake of not

[fnord_too]

I call here and get it in on the turn if a diamond does not hit (unless I boat up in which case I would probably make a bet that makes it look correct to call and chase the flush, and leaves him enough to bluff the river if he misses).

If he flopped a flush, I am going to loose some sklansky dollars every time, but possibly gain some tilt dollars when I hit my redraw. Position rules here, I definitely don't like throwing away that advantage on the flop by pushing. If he is on a naked flush draw, he already overcharged himself, you don't need to raise here. I think your thinking is dead on, except I don't think the choice between calling or raising is close at all.

[all_in_lam]

i disagree. assuming that he has a hand like JJ with 1 diamond you are better off pushing. With JJ he has 11 outs and almost 25% to hit the turn. Giving him a free card will likely cost you the current pot of 800+ subtracting 800+ x 0.25 from your EV. If top set is the best hand a push is the best play here IMO. Especially if he calls you are 60/40 favourite with all this money that you cannot get if a scare card comes on the turn.

But all that seems meaningless as you should fold here after being 3 bet by a flush.

[Rman]

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree. assuming that he has a hand like JJ with 1 diamond you are better off pushing. With JJ he has 11 outs and almost 25% to hit the turn. Giving him a free card will likely cost you the current pot of 800+ subtracting 800+ x 0.25 from your EV. If top set is the best hand a push is the best play here IMO. Especially if he calls you are 60/40 favourite with all this money that you cannot get if a scare card comes on the turn.

But all that seems meaningless as you should fold here after being 3 bet by a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would never fold to this miniraise even if I was almost sure he flopped the flush.

[Poker879]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding a 60/40 situation is awful regardless if villain is making a mistake of not

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to let you know, I never mentioned folding. Why would I fold if I thought I was a favorite in the hand?

[Wayfare]

I would have called the flop and raised a non diamond turn, but as played I would get it all in here. There are three situations I can see:

1) He has a flush, in which case you have outs
2) He has a set / two pair / overpair w/o diamond, in which you are monstrously ahead
3) He has a pair /w diamond, overpair /w diamond etc, combo draw, in which you are still good against (or even)

The problem is that you don't know if you are beat on a diamond turn or not, and you might make a disasterous fold on a scenerio 1) on a diamond turn. Since so much money has gone in, which limits your maneuvering room on the turn, I just stick it in now.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding a 60/40 situation is awful regardless if villain is making a mistake of not

[/ QUOTE ]

No one's folding, the decision is between call and raise.

[Poker879]

Well, I called, planning to push a non-diamond turn, and value bet a paired board. Turn was another 9, villain pushed. He had the naked ace. Surprising, I must say, apparently I gave villain WAY too much credit.