NFL week 8 picks

splashpot · #1 10-27-2006, 11:17 AM

I usually don't post picks because I'm not an NFL expert. In fact, I'm probably not a +EV handicapper. I don't really give good analysis for my picks and this case is no different. But these lines seemed way off to me. Does anyone else think so?

Patriots -1 @ Vikings
The Patriots are clearly the better team in my eyes. I expected this line to be around -6.

Rams +9.5 @ Chargers
Yes, the Chargers look good. Yes, they could be Super Bowl contenders. But I really don't think they should be giving 9.5 points to a 4-2 team with a possibly explosive offense. Anyone else think this line is a result of BSPs jumping on the Chargers bandwagon?

kyro · #2 10-27-2006, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I usually don't post picks because I'm not an NFL expert. In fact, I'm probably not a +EV handicapper. I don't really give good analysis for my picks and this case is no different. But these lines seemed way off to me. Does anyone else think so?

Patriots -1 @ Vikings
The Patriots are clearly the better team in my eyes. I expected this line to be around -6.

Rams +9.5 @ Chargers
Yes, the Chargers look good. Yes, they could be Super Bowl contenders. But I really don't think they should be giving 9.5 points to a 4-2 team with a possibly explosive offense. Anyone else think this line is a result of BSPs jumping on the Chargers bandwagon?

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So if NE was at home, you'd expect them to be a 12 point favorite over a 4-2 team? But you think 9.5 points is too much of an edge over the Rams because they're a 4-2 team.

capone0 · #3 10-27-2006, 11:53 AM

You do realize the Vikings have given a lot of teams trouble including the Bears on the road right? They slaugtered the Seahawks in the second half last week as well. They don't win pretty, but they are a pretty good home team. They have beaten 2 NFC contenders although 1 was beaten down and gave Chicago it's 2nd toughest test this year. While the Pats have beaten Cincy who isn't nearly 100% yet and lost to a good Denver team at home. The rest of their games have been rather rediculously easy. The Jets are playing over thier heads, Miami is a joke and they could have lost to Buffalo in the first although dominated them in the 2nd. I'm not that impressed with the Pats just yet. This week, next week and against Chicago will give a more accurate barometer then the first couple of weeks.

splashpot · #4 10-27-2006, 12:04 PM

Like I said, I'm not a good handicapper and I'm sure you guys are much better at this than I am. I've read about that 3 point home advantage thing, but I wasn't sure who accurate that was. Sounds like too many points just for home field advantage to me. But that debate could go in an entirely separate thread.

Cappone, you could be right about the Vikings. I'll admit I haven't watched any of their games this season. But I also think people are underrating the Pats. Dillon and Maroney have developed into an explosive combo. It took some time, but Brady seems to be getting on the same page with his WRs. Chester Taylor was great last week, but the Pats have a better rush defense than the Hawks.

Thremp · #5 10-27-2006, 12:15 PM

3 points is a good starting point. Some places are harder to play in...

Miami vs. Patriots in Dec. is a good example where 3 pts def is not homefield advantage.

I think this is more prevalent in college for some reason.

rjp · #6 10-27-2006, 12:19 PM

There is value with both plays, but I wouldn't put the Pats at -6. More like -3.5 at best.

kyro · #7 10-27-2006, 01:37 PM

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Like I said, I'm not a good handicapper and I'm sure you guys are much better at this than I am. I've read about that 3 point home advantage thing, but I wasn't sure who accurate that was. Sounds like too many points just for home field advantage to me. But that debate could go in an entirely separate thread.

Cappone, you could be right about the Vikings. I'll admit I haven't watched any of their games this season. But I also think people are underrating the Pats. Dillon and Maroney have developed into an explosive combo. It took some time, but Brady seems to be getting on the same page with his WRs. Chester Taylor was great last week, but the Pats have a better rush defense than the Hawks.

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I suck at handicapping too and I just read the forums for fun. This is all part of my learning process. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Jibba · #8 10-27-2006, 02:03 PM

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There is value with both plays, but I wouldn't put the Pats at -6. More like -3.5 at best.

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I thought it would be around -3 myself.

Shipwreck · #9 10-28-2006, 04:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Like I said, I'm not a good handicapper and I'm sure you guys are much better at this than I am. I've read about that 3 point home advantage thing, but I wasn't sure who accurate that was. Sounds like too many points just for home field advantage to me. But that debate could go in an entirely separate thread.

Cappone, you could be right about the Vikings. I'll admit I haven't watched any of their games this season. But I also think people are underrating the Pats. Dillon and Maroney have developed into an explosive combo. It took some time, but Brady seems to be getting on the same page with his WRs. Chester Taylor was great last week, but the Pats have a better rush defense than the Hawks.

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Brady is going to have to win this game, dillon and maroney should be stalemated. Don't understand why these teams aren't considered even on a level field.