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To push or not to push
I'm trying to find out how often my opponent has to fold in a given situation for an all in semi-bluff to be profitable.
This is the situation: The current pot contains 10000. I have 8500 left behind. I have exactly 11 outs on the turn and hence a 25% equity. I push. The Ev of a call would be (0.25 x 18500) - (0.75 x 8500) EVcall = -1750 However, if my opponent folds often enough this should be a +EV play. So to make a break even situation, I set the EV to 0 and solve for the Fold % which I call F. So I get the equation: 0 = (Fold% x Current Pot) + (Call % x EVcall) 0 = F x(10 000) + (1-F)x(-1750) 0 = 10000F + 1750F - 1750 1750 = 11750F F = 1750/11750 F = 0.1489 or 14.89% for the play to be break even. Is this the correct method for solving this problem? |
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