pop quiz hotshot... counting outs

[Str8Fish]

Snitch, it looks like you did your hand combinations wrong. If there are 3 remaining A's and 4 remaining K's, then your opponent can have 12 combinations of AK. The factorial stuff (7Cx) stuff is wrong.

[Gipper]

Without reading the other responses:

I say his range is AA-JJ, AKs, AK, AQs. AA gives you 0 outs. KK, QQ, JJ, and AK give you 3 outs to win with 6 to tie an AK. AKs and AQs give you a discounted 2.5 outs to win and 5 outs to tie. You are getting 5.5:1. I think it's a clear fold.

[Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
Snitch, it looks like you did your hand combinations wrong. If there are 3 remaining A's and 4 remaining K's, then your opponent can have 12 combinations of AK. The factorial stuff (7Cx) stuff is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
It includes pairs.

[train.]

[ QUOTE ]
88+, AQ+, KQ


2.9 outs

+0.86BB


You all fail.


[/ QUOTE ]

your range is too narrow

2-4 outs w/o doing all the work is respectable

2outta3 aint bad, you should be grading on a curve

[Shillx]

1) Why can't he have AT? FWIW I think he has Tx a good amount here. It seems pretty silly to rule out those hands.

2) The # of outs needed to call the turn are fine and dandy but they don't dictate if you can swing a call. They would if the turn bet put him all-in at that point but what are you going to do on the river if he bets? You are almost certainly going to get played and it will turn the 4th street call a pretty big mistake.

What you should do if you wan't to continue is raise it up. Now I would never do it because I think we are smoked and his chance of folding is low but if his range is as wide as you say then it is better to jam it right now not put any more bets in. If his range is what I think it is (Tx/overpairs/flush draw) then raising is pointless as he will never fold. OTOH calling is pointless too as you don't have odds to do so.

[milesdyson]

doit

[train.]

ummm, strawbereies, yummy

[Str8Fish]

wtf man this thread isn't a trainwreck. F you miles!

I only made it up to get people thinking about hidden outs and how to do EV calculations. If you want to adjust the range to include AT+, and see what we get, that's fine.

Maybe before I was too harsh saying "you all fail." It was supposed to be a joke of sorts. Obviously not that funny, but whatever.

This thread was to get the n00bs introduced into the math behind this stuff. Stop putting down what could be a good thread [censored].

[DrModern]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf man this thread isn't a trainwreck. F you miles!

I only made it up to get people thinking about hidden outs and how to do EV calculations. If you want to adjust the range to include AT+, and see what we get, that's fine.

Maybe before I was too harsh saying "you all fail." It was supposed to be a joke of sorts. Obviously not that funny, but whatever.

This thread was to get the n00bs introduced into the math behind this stuff. Stop putting down what could be a good thread [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

Str8,

I think it was well-intentioned but went the wrong way.

The veterans are gonna be like "Ugh, poker math, out-counting, I already understand this stuff, but whatever, if it makes you happy..."

And the n00bs are too busy posting "So I 3-bet the turn because he was on a flush draw" or "ZOMG Villains at $0.10/$0.20 are SO GOOD!"

[Str8Fish]

Here's v3 with including AT, AJ. It's still a call.

88+, AT+, KQ

88(1) - 0 outs
99(6) - 6 outs to overs
TT(3) - 0 outs
JJ(3) - 3 outs to A
QQ(6) - 3 outs to A
KK(6) - 3 outs to A
AA(3) - 0 outs
AT(8) – 3 outs to J
AdTd(1) – 2 outs to J
AJ(8) – tied
AdJd(1) – tied, lose to any diamond
AQ(11) - 3 outs to J, 6 split outs (3 T’s, 3 4’s)
AdQd(1) – 2 outs to J, 5 split outs (3 T’s, 2 4’s)
AK(11) - 3 outs to J, 6 split outs
AdKd(1) – 2 outs to J, 5 split outs
KQ(15) - we're ahead, but have to avoid K's and Q's (6)
KdQd(1) – still ahead, have to avoid K’s, Q’s, (6), diamonds (9)

Total hand combinations = 86
0 outs = 7 hands
3 outs = 23 hands without the split hands
6 outs = 6 hands

To find out if we would like to continue, given that we have outs to a split, we need to do the EV calculation. Assuming if he doesn't bet on the river with KQ:

EV = Win + Tie - Lose
EV =
[KQ] 15/86*([win]38/44*6.5BB - [lose]6/44*1BB) +
[KdQd] 1/86*([win]29/44*6.5BB – [lose]15/44*1BB) +
[3 outs] 23/86*([win]3/44*6.5BB – [lose]41/44*1BB) +
[6 outs] 6/86*([win]6/44*6.5BB – [lose]38/44*1BB) +
[AdTd] 1/86*([win]2/44*6.5BB – [lose]42/44*1BB) +
[AJ] 8/86*([tie]6.5BB/2) +
[AdJd] 1/86*([tie]35/44*6.5BB/2 – [lose]9/44*1BB) +
[AQ] 11/86*([win]3/44*6.5BB + [tie]6/44*6.5BB/2 – [lose]35/44*1BB) +
[AdQd] 1/86*([win]2/44*6.5BB + [tie]5/44*6.5BB/2 – [lose]37/44*1BB) +
[AK] 11/86*([win]3/44*6.5BB + [tie]6/44*6.5BB/2 – [lose]35/44*1BB) +
[AdKd] 1/86*([win]2/44*6.5BB + [tie]5/44*6.5BB/2 – [lose]37/44*1BB) -
[0 outs] 7/86*([lose]1BB)

= 0.96 + 0.05 – 0.13 + 0 +0 + 0.3 + 0.03 + 0.01 + 0 + 0.01 + 0 – 0.08 = 1.13

Now obviously, the KQ outs need to be discounted. How many combinations of KQ can we take for the EV = 0? Plugging and chugging in Excel says that we would need to account for negative 2.8 combinations of KQ to make this play EV neutral.

In fact, if we set the number of combinations of KQ = 0, we get EV = +0.21.

So this extended range has made the call on the turn fine.