NFD + Overcards vs a possible nit

[Kyriefurro]

I've got about 40 hands on villain so far. He's running about 25/2/3..typical Nit stats. Everthing I've seen so far supports this read.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($20.15)
UTG ($33.70)
MP ($14.65)
Hero ($62.85)
Button ($96.50)
SB ($19.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.50, MP folds.

Flop: ($5.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $12</font>, Hero.....?

How pushes here? Why or why not?

[Roadstar]

I think I fold given UTG is nitting and he is not deep enough to make calling too profitable.

It would be nice to tell us if he routinely raises with any pocket pair preflop because that changes his hand range a bit here.

Regardless, I think its range is 2pair (98), combo draw (JTs, 76s) or set (44,88,99).

Keep in mind that your equity against 2 pair is not that much better from against a set (70/30 vs 65/35 ish).

Summary: We can't call (shallow stack), push is only very marginally +EV if you include combo draws in his range (still a dog but dead money makes it slightly +EV). So I fold.




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,810 games 0.020 secs 940,500 games/sec

Board: 4c 8s 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.3376 % 55.24% 00.10% { 99-88, 44, JTs, 98s, 76s }
Hand 2: 44.6624 % 44.57% 00.10% { AsJs }

[CIncyHR]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I fold given UTG is nitting and he is not deep enough to make calling too profitable.

It would be nice to tell us if he routinely raises with any pocket pair preflop because that changes his hand range a bit here.

Regardless, I think its range is 2pair (98), combo draw (JTs, 76s) or set (44,88,99).

Keep in mind that your equity against 2 pair is not that much better from against a set (70/30 vs 65/35 ish).

Summary: We can't call (shallow stack), push is only very marginally +EV if you include combo draws in his range (still a dog but dead money makes it slightly +EV). So I fold.




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,810 games 0.020 secs 940,500 games/sec

Board: 4c 8s 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.3376 % 55.24% 00.10% { 99-88, 44, JTs, 98s, 76s }
Hand 2: 44.6624 % 44.57% 00.10% { AsJs }

[/ QUOTE ]

There is pretty much no way im folding this.

[Antinome]

Roadstar is mostly right. We certainly can't call.

Pushing looks just barely +EV versus his range.

Folding is -EV.

Time to Gambool.

[Yaboosh]

You actually think you have fold equity here? Without fold equity, what exactly is the difference between calling and pushing? Oh, we get to see if the turn helps us and then decide whether or not we want the rest of our stack in the middle.

You don't need implied odds when you are getting direct odds. If there is no fold equity, then pushing sucks.

[Roadstar]

Nice analysis Cincy, I like it

[CIncyHR]

[ QUOTE ]
push is only very marginally +EV if you include combo draws in his range

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nice analysis Cincy, I like it

[/ QUOTE ]

There is NO way his range is set/two pair. Combo draws are obviously in his range, his AF is 3, which means hes fairly agressive postfflop. I'd even venture a guess to say that sometimes our Aces and Jacks are clean otus. easy shove.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
You actually think you have fold equity here? Without fold equity, what exactly is the difference between calling and pushing? Oh, we get to see if the turn helps us and then decide whether or not we want the rest of our stack in the middle.

You don't need implied odds when you are getting direct odds. If there is no fold equity, then pushing sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

We aren't getting direct odds to see the turn.
even if both of our overs are good we are only 30% to hit the turn, and we need 38%. Only 17% of the time we're clean.

Our hand is pretty transparent. He might not put the other half of his stack in. So we can't correctly call to see a turn.

If we can see both the turn and river we are 34-60% to make our hand, and we win with A high some of the time too. That by itself is almost enough to justify a push. We don't need much fold equity. 15% would be more than enough.

I'm not claiming this is an easy push, or that the EV is super positive, only that it is less negative than folding.

[4_2_it]

The EV difference between pushing and folding is probably not enough to argue about. 40 hands is not enough to establish he is a nit. Shake the Magic 8-ball and follow it's advice, it will not make much difference in the long run.

[EMc]

Like 42it said, this a question of your tolerance for variance, and your gamboool.

Me, I shove. Its fun.