Top set vs I Luv Yu 200bb deep

[Stealthy]

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Personally, I don't think leading flop is good. I'd go with c/r, but a small amount, slightly more than a minraise

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I hate this line here against a nit who almost always has a big pair. Betting out is so much more deceptive than any kind of check-raise.

So what if he calls your tiny check-raise you really think he is going to fancy his AA or KK when you bet the turn after this flop line?

You lead every street he can convince himself you have a hand like JJ or QQ whilst any check-raise is going to put the set fear into him.

[Dan Bitel]

stealthy,

leading flop and turn shows BIG stregnth in a rr pot, and lets him fold A LOT of hands.

I prefer to draw him into the pot, which a small c/r does

[4_2_it]

*Grunching*

If he has AA or KK he will put you AI at some point. Go into donk call mode. You can always c/r him AI on the turn or river. He hates aggression, but will keep betting into weakness with an overpair.

[McGobbler]

Betting into him on all streets is the right play against him. He will pretty much always check the turn if he has just an overpair but if we lead into him on turn he will most likely just call and not raise with hands like QQ-AA. That's okay because we can lead into him again on the river and hope he raises all-in. It's quite possible depending on his moood that after we bet $100-120 on turn that he might put us all-in.

[ColdSteel]

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Tell me dick

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OK. For future reference, when I say "lemme have it" I'm not talking about juvinile personal attacks & name-calling. That's all I'm going to say about this for now.

To all,

I know that this may not have been totally clear in my post, but I didn't mean to suggest that we go for a check-raise on the turn. What I meant was that we should check the turn knowing full well that the opponent will check behind almost 100% of the time. I said the reasons why in my post, but to recap (and state in a different way), I was suggesting this:

- If we bet the turn villan folds x% of the time
- If we check the turn then bet the river villan folds y% of the time
- y < x

The reason why I think this is true is because if the opponent called the flop bet suspicious that we may have a set, a large part of what he's doing is seeing if we bet again on the turn. If we bet again on the turn it seals the deal, and he can get away from the hand feeling good that he lost the minimum. A set would never check this turn. This thread is evidence of that. People are violently opposed to checking the set on the turn; opposed enough to resort to name-calling. Sets never check here. The opponent knows this. That's why we should check here.

Checking doesn't preclude us from getting all-in. We probably never had a chance to anyway. Most people are suggesting betting something like 140 on the turn and then pushing the river, and that would be great if it would work. But most of the time it won't work because the villan is folding the turn because he knows we have a set. So getting all-in on the river is a pipe dream most of the time. Even if he has a hand that he might felt, or if he somehow had a sudden brain fart and wouldn't realize that we have a set when we bet the turn, we still don't preclude ourselves from getting all-in on the river. Because he had his brain fart, he is going to often think that we're bluffing when we bet the river after checking the turn, and often he'll raise.

I'm not posting this to convince anyone I'm right. I'm posting this so that people will challenge my conclusions and my logic. I'm actually trying to convince myself it's right (or wrong).

[ReptileHouse]

Against a nit opponent, I think a check/raise on the turn isn't the best play. He looks for reasons to fold one pair hands, not reasons to build pots with them. The more strength we show, the more likely we are to give him the reason he's looking for.

I prefer a check/call flop, lead turn line, personally. It still shows strength, but can more easilly be mistaken for a float.

As played, I like the turn lead.

[gimmetheloot]

you guys need to clean your vaginas. seriously.

[prayformojo]

[ QUOTE ]
What I meant was that we should check the turn knowing full well that the opponent will check behind almost 100% of the time. I said the reasons why in my post, but to recap (and state in a different way), I was suggesting this:

- If we bet the turn villan folds x% of the time
- If we check the turn then bet the river villan folds y% of the time
- y < x

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1) I don't do much math hereabouts, but I'm feeling persnickity. This doesn't complete the equation, because you're not taking into account the additional money won when Villain calls the turn and the river. To carry your analysis to its conclusion, you have to determine (estimate, really) whether the amount won by betting the river is greater than the amount won by betting the turn AND betting the river.

a=% Villain calls river bet when turn is checked through
b=% Villain calls turn bet
c=% Villain calls river bet after calling turn bet
R1 = amount of river bet when turn is checked through
R2 = amount of river bet when Hero bets turn
T = amount of turn bet

For your analysis to work, the following must be true: a(R1) > b(T)+c(R2)

2) On this board, I'm not convinced y really is < x, because there are a lot of scare cards that can fall, completing possible straight or flush draws. Villain may believe a river bet is more likely a bluff than a turn bet, but he is also going to attribute less value to an overpair if there is four to a straight or three to a flush. Hero may bluff more often on such a board, but he bets top pair less often.

[BalugaWhale]

All-

I would be more likely to bet turn if villain raised flop. Villains choice to flat call flop greatly increases the chance he will bet if checked to on the turn, imo. Also, if villain checks behind on the turn, he is pretty guaranteeing himself to call a PSB on the river.

[Dan Bitel]

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All-

I would be more likely to bet turn if villain raised flop. Villains choice to flat call flop greatly increases the chance he will bet if checked to on the turn, imo.

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this is completely backwards. Villain called flop for pot control, so he'll check behind turn