£200 - AJ in the bubble - death or glory?

[aplunk]

i don't play stt's at all but my recent mtt performances have been dreadful so i thought i'd give them a try. After a few successes at lower buy-ins i decided to go out of my depth -

£200 stt cyrptologic - payout £1k/£600£400

Hold'em NL (200/400) - 2006/10/24 - 11:13:50 (ET)
Table "STT1_ 3720609 - 1" Seat 8 is the button.

Seat 2: UTG (1462 in chips)
Seat 8: Button (3286 in chips)
Seat 9: SB (1172 in chips)
Seat 10: HERO (4080 in chips)
SB: posts small blind 200
plunky: posts big blind 400
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO [J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
UTG: folds
Button: raises to 3286 and is all-in
SB: folds
HERO : ??

Call/fold, and any explanations - thanks

Obviously calling and winning is good - and probably 1st place, calling and losing is bad and may well mean $0

Should I try and fold to the money ?

Is it close?

Villain seems quite LAG - he's had the chip lead for most of the game. I recently doubled thru when I called his button push K10 > 92.

He particularly seems to enjoy raising when the chip counts make it easy to fold, I’m thinking that this is one of those spots.

Do I need to start thinking about ranges? If my read is correct – I’m ahead of his range

Maybe he’s raising any two – but then I’m still only 60-65% (anyone know the correct value?)

If I am out of my depth does that mean I should be more likely to call and take what could be my best chance of winning? Or does my inexperience not count for much at his stage, with the blinds so big?

Any links to other threads that answer these questions would be appreciated.

Thanks

[registrar]

I don't play STTs but I fold

[BvlyHls90210]

This is a pretty bad call but a lot depends on how loose he's pushing. Due to ICM considerations here, you are going to have to be a pretty big favorite against his range to call, and AJo is very borderline against a lot of opponents. You can justify it if he's pushing any two, but your edge is going to be slim at best. In the meantime, UTG and SB are about to bust, so from a risk/reward standpoint I prefer waiting it out and sliding into the money.

[Sparta45]

Fold. And drop down in limits.

[cakewalk]

fold, move up

[aplunk]

lol - thx bengie

[aplunk]

[ QUOTE ]
Due to ICM considerations here, you are going to have to be a pretty big favorite against his range to call

[/ QUOTE ]

more details please

[bluefeet]

see the 'tools for stt' thread for links to ICM calc tools...you can exam the details of the calc & play with push/call ranges.