Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Seven

[Dementia]

Perform you're turning into Matthew McConaughey from "Two For The Money" when his picks start spitting in his face. Better luck next week.

[Bill C]

[ QUOTE ]
So do we think Dennis Green even lasts thru the season

And is Norm Chow the next headcoach of the Cardinals?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dennis Green is the Dusty Baker of the NFL

[celticGreen]

[ QUOTE ]
you got destroyed this week

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. And last week. Teams like the Eagles are really making it difficult this year. Last week I posted my pics for the first time and got hammered, this week because of the lines I was reduced to one bet on Carolina (push), a tease with NE and Carolina and a tease with Denver and the Colts.

Right now, I'm pretty much going to ride a few select teams & tease the spread in my favor (if I deem it necessary). Not saying this is a good strategy for everyone, but I'm going to try to make it work for me.

[sygamel]

You generally have a pretty good grasp on games Performify. I'd be more than likely to start betting you week 8 after a tough losing streak like this.

[Performify]

Thanks for the support, everyone.

I'll do my best to right this ship in Week Eight, that's for sure. It all should even out in the end.

Answering some specific questions:
[ QUOTE ]
just curious if you've ever have a losing SEASON in NFL?

[/ QUOTE ]
Last year was my first losing record (in terms of win/loss) since I've been tracking picks. My system had traditionally been pretty underdog-heavy, and it took me a while to adjust to the favorites going on such a tear in 2005.

But I still won money last year as my weighting system worked very well. I had a very significant win rate on my Game of the Week which carried me despite being a few games under .500 on my regular picks. Here's my record for last year for picks posted here on 2p2:
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.

[ QUOTE ]
Is your MMA vs. NFL success just variance or is your edge that much greater in MMA?

[/ QUOTE ]
The edge is definitely that much better in MMA. Capping football is a lot tougher, there are a lot more people analyzing these lines and hammering on them. On the MMA-side the lines are weaker to begin with, and have significantly less people betting them.

[Central Limit]

Performify:

It seems to me you'd be a lot better off if you gave up betting on road favorites. What's your record on road faves this year?

[drossxyu]

[ QUOTE ]
Is your MMA vs. NFL success just variance or is your edge that much greater in MMA?

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, the variance in football is much higher because of the scoring system.

[rjp]

The variance in football is much higher because of the small number of games available for betting.

[drossxyu]

Scoring system and number of possessions has much more to do with the variance in NFL than the number of games played.

Biggest factor on whether a team covers or not in the NFL is turnover differential in a single game (which can't be predicted before the game). It creates such a huge swing in points because of the scoring system and # of possessions.

Lets compare football/NFL to a sport like basketball/NBA. Look at the difference a turnover makes using the NFL scoring system vs the NBA scoring system.

An NFL team is driving down the field and has the potential to score 7 pts maximum. If they have a turnover they lose the chance to score 7 and now if the other team scores 7 the swing is a potential 14 pts. (7 pts that they missed out on and 7 that the other team scored).

In the NBA if a team turns it over they miss out on the opportunity to score 3 and give the other team a chance to score 3 creating a potential swing of 6 points.

Average number of possessions per team in NFL: 10-12 per game.
Average number of possessions per team in NBA: 90-100 per game.

Now factor in that in the NBA you have a lot more opportunities/possessions to make up for that turnover which swung 6 potential points compared to the NFL where you have very few precious opportunities to make up for the turnover which swung 14 potential points.

Just look at the four biggest upsets of the day yesterday and the turnover differential:
Chiefs (+2)
Texans (+2)
Viking (+3)
Buccaneers (+4)

[silentbob]

It's certainly true that turnovers explain a lot after the fact. If only we had statistics that were predictive regarding the forcing and committing of turnovers. I wonder if the folks at Football Outsiders have ever done any research in this regard.