I think I made a bad fold.

bigredlemon · #1 10-22-2006, 03:52 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB (t5195)
UTG (t15870)
UTG+1 (t15648)
MP1 (t4375)
MP2 (t3708)
CO (t7590)
Button (t3847)
Hero (t19570)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7

, Q

.
<font color="blue">7 folds.</font>

BB has 2995 after posting BB and ante. Pot is 4800 after antes and blinds.
It'll cost me 3995 to put him all in. He's will likely call with any two. I'm even money with a random hand.

THis is a satelite with top 125 gets entrees. There's currently 200 players left and I'm likely to cost into the money. About 50 players will blind away by next orbit. I'll still have 14,375 if I lose. Average stack around 12k.

IcyHotMonkey · #2 10-22-2006, 04:18 PM

Pot is 4600. [8 X 200 (antes)] + 1000 (SB) + 2000 (BB) = 4600. If there are only 8 players how come there were 7 folds before your action? Irrevelant.

If you can coast into placing, grab yourself a beer and go watch the game.

betgo · #3 10-22-2006, 04:56 PM

Good fold. Avoid marginal plays at this stage of satellite. In fact probably just fold everything until you have reason to believe that won't work. The push is of course significantly cEV+.

DDBeast · #4 10-22-2006, 05:06 PM

Can he really coast into it with 10bb and 75 people to go?

FortunaMaximus · #5 10-22-2006, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can he really coast into it with 10bb and 75 people to go?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, with selective pushes.

betgo · #6 10-22-2006, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can he really coast into it with 10bb and 75 people to go?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, with selective pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you need to steal, wait till thwe blinds get bigger and steal from big stacks. OP is table leader and may be able to just fold his way in.

IcyHotMonkey · #7 10-22-2006, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can he really coast into it with 10bb and 75 people to go?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, with selective pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Avg. stack is 12k. If he folds, he is at 18370 on the button.
"About 50 players will blind away by next orbit." It is safe to assume the median stack is below 12k. He only needs to last longer then 37.5% of the field. With the average player having less then 6BB's, I think he could make it.

FortunaMaximus · #8 10-22-2006, 05:47 PM

Yeah. He's got time to assess his chances and pick up a better holding than Q7o.

Best to leave the BB alone rather than give him a chance to double up.