100-200 Bellagio. There seems to be disagreement here.

[2win]

And god i hate raise/folding the turn
That is if levi droppes and she pops.

[Abbaddabba]

If that happens, you're getting about 17:1 plus implied odds drawing to what might as well be the stone cold nuts.

You only have to be good about 1/15 times to make the turn and river call unimproved.

You'll be getting 18:1 on the river. The overlay in making that call when you're good 1/15 times is roughly equal to the expected loss from calling the turn getting 20:1(including implied odds) JUST for improvement alone.

Though you may want to discount it a bit for the times where you're ahead but get drawn out on, that doesnt change much.

I think if you called the turn and check/folded a J, K or A river and check/called all others (especially a 3 or a 2), that would justify calling the turn 3bet.

If it is a big move, they probably give up on the river since you look like you're showing it down 100% of the time. If they had top two with J10 (unlikely but plausible), they get counterfited. If they had JJ, they didnt improve.

[Bill King]

sooo weak but you lose.. fold

[Schneids]

Raising is retarded. Folding is foolish. Calling is sensible.

- You've got two of the queens. That makes it unlikely Levi has QJ, and if he has KJ, then he only has 6 outs and might fold anyway.

- Chantel is gonna bet the turn and river with JJ anyway. You'll still get two bets, and given your read she's probably got you beat 80-90% of the time. So, you're in the right range that it's best to call down and not try to outplay yourself or kill your action (for instance 88 might fold to a raise, but, check and call a river or bet the river anyway). Because of my 80-90% estimate, the pot is big enough that folding on the turn is wrong.

- We still need to factor in the possibility Levi has you beat too... i've seen him semi-tilt before, but he's not dumb either. In a 3-way pot here if you call and he checkraises on the turn, I think it's a pretty easy fold.

I think this hand is pretty simple actually, what's the arguments for other lines?

[2win]

I like SCHNEIDS line and I correct myself. You should call.

[DonkTilt]

Chantal obviously can see that Levy is playing badly as well, she doesnt need a ''premium'' hand to 3 bet PF and attempt to get heads up. David cold calling 2 and chantal not putting in the 5th PF makes me think QQ- I would raise the turn.

[mike l.]

she could have something like ATs. levi stinks at lhe, i loved playing against him when i was out there. hell she could have 88 or 77 or something, she does not need to have a monster here. you need to raise the turn to make sure levi folds AK, which he very well might have. when you 4 bet preflop and raise the flop she could still hold onto the idea that you might have AK or something.

your image at the table is probably not as you perceive. because you look like youre like 17 people will be brave against you and not give you credit all day long regardless of what your cards and chips tell them to the contrary. get used to it, you can exploit that.

nice playing with you, especially because while we chatted i managed to get even after a painful long session.

[durrrr]

lol... raise... and i dont play limit

[Schneids]

Ok I slept on this hand more and did some more thinking, though the problem (or benefit) is my thinking isn't about what FF should do in this hand...


Anyway, I was thinking about being in Chantel's spot, and how sexy it'd be to play a flopped set this way:

- FF open 4-bet me, a super tight player who just 3-bet. His hand range HAS to be big pair, AK.
- FF raised on the flop. It's looking more and more likely he's got a big pair. In fact, there are many many non-clueless players who will virtually never raise on this flop with just AK (and I know several who would contend this is a huuuuge mistake to ever raise on this flop with this action, with just AK).
- Levi cold called on the flop. His hand range is probably QJ, KQ, KJ, or monster.

How do we extract the most with these variables in play?
- For a good hand reader, bet 3-betting the flop SCREAMS set or slowplayed AA/KK. This gets some action, but might kill your action on the big bet streets and cause FF to just call down with QQ.
- If FF has what he's supposed to have here most of the time (big pair), and if FF looks like he's 17 and we don't respect him and figure him to be "typical overaggressive kid," then he's probably going to raise our turn bet if we just call the flop and lead out on the turn, especially because of Levi's flop cold call.
... - downside: A or K kills our action on the turn if FF has big pair under that turn card, since we'll now no longer get raised.
- Hopefully the home run scenario comes: We bet the turn, FF raises like he's supposed to cuz our hand range and assumptions say he should most of the time, and now Levi check 3-bets with his own "slowplayed monster" that's trailing to our set.
- Or the other home run: we bet, FF raises, and Levi has to call two cold with QJ, or fold his KQ/KJ hands that we'd love for him to fold now since the pot is big.


So by bet/calling the flop, and bet 3-betting the turn with a set, we get to extract the most in one "home run scenario," and protect our hand the best in the other "home run scenario" (of which, I would say one of these two scenarios happens almost always since basic LHE hand reading says this is what Levi should have most of the time).


I'm officially declaring this the way a flopped set should be played (and by no means am I saying that's what Chantel has. I'm just saying it's what should be the best way to play a flopped set in her shoes on this particular hand).


OK back to hiberation. I still think calling the turn and calling the river is the better long run play. But I now think raising the turn and checking the river is a clooooose second (and yes folding to a 3-bet, unless Levi calls two cold, in which case also call and fold river if no set is hit). My close second is going with the assumption that Chantel is passive and never/almost never going to pull a move, and yet still capable of getting "tricky" and not capping AA/KK preflop.

[Apathy]

You should call this turn for sure.