NFL Week 7 Picks

[JJguy]

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P.S. - I am a BSP

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Personally, I like AZ. Don't bet on this game if you don't like the line. I have limited sports betting experience, but I've found that many times when the line is only a 3 point difference then it's almost a coin flip.

However, in this case, I think AZ will win. 2 weeks in a row Leinart AND his team have proven that they are capable of winning. Against CHI, who were supposed to absolutely pwn, Leinart did really well. I saw CHI throwing blitzes, pressure, etc and i thought he handled it really well. AZ still has a high-powered offense imo, regardless of how their season has gone. Arizona's last two games have been against teams that were sure "LOCKS" to "DESTROY" them and both teams barely won.

Take OAK if you want, but I like AZ...I only said that I liked the pick, and I specifically said that it's certainly not a lock. I think AZ has a lot of potential though, and I think Leniart has done "very well"- to quote myself.

p.s. hopefully that makes sense. i just drank 40 ounces of 8.2% malt liquor hahaha LOL good luck this Sunday!!!!!

[JJguy]

BTw, that analysis was too convoluted for me. sorry lol

The raiders won for me last week, but they were 16 point favorites...I like AZ...thats all

[GiftGiver]

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Personally, I like AZ. Don't bet on this game if you don't like the line.

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I have bet Oakland in this game


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I have limited sports betting experience, but I've found that many times when the line is only a 3 point difference then it's almost a coin flip.

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Ok to relate this to poker, If you could take QQ or AK in an "almost coin flip" the choice is clear. If the game is an "almost coin flip" as you say, why would you lay points?

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However, in this case, I think AZ will win. 2 weeks in a row Leinart AND his team have proven that they are capable of winning.

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All they have shown is that they are capable of choking. They have scored 6. I repeat 6 points combined in the second half of Lienart's 2 starts after jumoing out to large leads.

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Against CHI, who were supposed to absolutely pwn, Leinart did really well. I saw CHI throwing blitzes, pressure, etc and i thought he handled it really well.

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Lienart had a good opening drive vs Chi and KC. However after that in both games the only TDs he scored were off of turnovers.


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AZ still has a high-powered offense imo, regardless of how their season has gone.

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Yes, very high powered. 4.4 yds/play. Tied for 3rd last in the NFL.

[JJguy]

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Personally, I like AZ. Don't bet on this game if you don't like the line.

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I have bet Oakland in this game


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I have limited sports betting experience, but I've found that many times when the line is only a 3 point difference then it's almost a coin flip.

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Ok to relate this to poker, If you could take QQ or AK in an "almost coin flip" the choice is clear. If the game is an "almost coin flip" as you say, why would you lay points?

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However, in this case, I think AZ will win. 2 weeks in a row Leinart AND his team have proven that they are capable of winning.

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All they have shown is that they are capable of choking. They have scored 6. I repeat 6 points combined in the second half of Lienart's 2 starts after jumoing out to large leads.

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Against CHI, who were supposed to absolutely pwn, Leinart did really well. I saw CHI throwing blitzes, pressure, etc and i thought he handled it really well.

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Lienart had a good opening drive vs Chi and KC. However after that in both games the only TDs he scored were off of turnovers.


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AZ still has a high-powered offense imo, regardless of how their season has gone.

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Yes, very high powered. 4.4 yds/play. Tied for 3rd last in the NFL.

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I meant it was almost a 'coin flip' given the point spread. I like AZ, good luck dude! :P

[Shipwreck]

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miami has looked pretty bad all season, losing to houston and falling behind to the jets 20-3 last week before coming back late to push the spread. two of green bay's top recievers are at least less than 100% according to reports. green bay's defense is second-worst in the league in front of houston, so if there is any game where harrington can 'get healthy' this is probably it. miami on the other hand is ranked top-10 in the league (5th and 7th iirc) against the pass and the run, so their pass defense should be able to take advantage of the situation considering those recievers might be hurt. it's really probably going to be an ugly game overall, but if i had to put my money somewhere, I would say green bay. I just don't like the idea of joey harrington laying points to anyway.

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Green bay's top recievers have been Driver and Jennings since week two. Driver is a bit sore but isn't on the injury report on NFL.com and Jennings is fine. They lost two of their #3 guys in ferguson and now robinson for the ban.

Miami is missing a starting corner and his backup, and then I think a nickel guy too.

[MacGuyV]

Tough week for the bar stool pundits.

[dkgojackets]

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My locks for this week are:

San Diego -5 vs KC (SD)
Philadelphia -4 vs TB (Phi.)
Eagles won't lose to a mediocre team after losing to NO
Arizona -3 vs Oakland (Arizona)
Arizona looked good last week, much better than Oakland. Leinhart is coming along.
Pittsburgh -1.5 vs Atlanta (Pittsburgh)
Over/Under for the game is 37.5...I'm taking the under
Pittsburgh looked really sharp last week. I expect a low scoring game where they come out on top 13-10.

Well, that's all for now. Discuss.

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YIKES

[TheRover]

I'll give him credit for getting a good line on Pitt...

[Ethan G]

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My locks for this week are:
Arizona -3 vs Oakland (Arizona)
Arizona looked good last week, much better than Oakland. Leinhart is coming along.


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I took AZ -3 as well. I think Leinart has performed very well. Despite their dissapointing loss to CHI, I think they're more pissed than demoralized. I don't know if this is "a lock" but I like it a lot.

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"The Raiders are the NFL’s lone winless team, but teams that are winless at 0-5 or worse are actually good bets as underdogs or pick, going 90-50-4 ATS with wins last week on Tennessee and Detroit. I’d take the Raiders since they are a better team than the Cardinals. Oakland is a bad offensive team, rating at 0.7 yards per play worse than average in 4 games with Andrew Walter at quarterback (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but Arizona is 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively in Matt Leinart’s 2 starts (4.1 yppl against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl) and the Cardinals are 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively for the season (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack). So, the offensive units are actually about even and the Raiders have a huge edge defensively in this game. Oakland has yielded just 4.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average team and they should have no trouble limiting the Cardinals in this game. Arizona’s defense played well last week, but they have allowed 5.6 yppl in 6 games to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Raiders should show signs of life offensively. The Raiders seem worse than they actually are because they’re -9 in turnover margin in their 5 games, but they’re not likely to be as bad in that category going forward – which gives us line value on their side. I can’t imagine how the Cardinals will be able to pick themselves up emotionally after blowing a 20 point lead to the Bears on Monday night."

The above is not my analysis but I defy anyone to post anything more prescient regarding the Raiders/Cardinals game. This is the difference between being a sharp and a BSP. Give a real reason to bet on the Cardinals other than "Lienart looked good"

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Hi Giftgiver,

Will you please post more analysis and picks??? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Thanks,
Ethan

[JJguy]

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Tough week for the bar stool pundits.

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Speaking of BSPs lol..

GB in Miami? GB is a 5 point dog according to the lines, but every ESPN analyst has picked them to win? explain -




"Many of the same experts hyped them to death all offseason. I would strongly consider taking Miami in my survivor pool if I hadn't used them already, but I think the 5pt line is about right."





YUP TOUGH WEEK