Oliver Perez? Are you joking?

[freewheeler]

Up to +113 now and climbing... I guess action must be pouring in on the Mets? Almost feels like they're daring me to take the Cardinals (lol). I had it all figured out to take the Mets when the line came down a bit... Now what??? How big is the NY factor? I know many believe opposing Yankees is always +EV because of all the NY money that always goes in on them at any price. Is the same happening with the Mets?

[Balzac]

After much back and forth I decided to put all my eggs in one basket:

Mets Moneyline (-126)
Mets -1.5 (+165)

Will be flipping between this and the UNC Virginia game tonight. Come on Tarheels!

Edit: As in Come on... Beat the 7 point spread. I'm not that much of a gambling man

[Derek123]

Cardinals +116 now at Bodog

[kioshk]

[ QUOTE ]
If all I had said was "I think the Mets think this is their time", you would have a valid point.


- I have a valid point either way. "I think The Mets will find a way to win this game" is just ridiculous.



Geez, look at that Met lineup. And at home? Suppan Schmuppan, I'm taking the Mets.

Is that rigorous enough?


- Not really.


Indeed, the Mets may win this game. It might even be in a situation where they 'find a way' to win it at the end.
But the sports-radioness of your logic does not lead to +EV handicapping.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Mets dominated the NL. The Cards squeaked into the playoffs. The Mets proved all year long that they are a better team than the Cardinals. This isn't a coin-flip. Maybe I don't express my opinions in internetsportsforum-approved fashion, but betting on the Mets tonight is +EV.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
There's not a ton of value, but I like to GAMBOL in the playoffs (especially in a Game 7), and given that I'm doing so, I'm taking Suppan and the Cards over the worst pitcher ever to start a Game 7.

(If you don't have ESPN insider, I'll leave you with this juicy excerpt.)

[ QUOTE ]
Perez is almost certainly the worst pitcher who's ever started a Game 7. There are 94 pitchers in the study. Perez won three games this season, which places him 94th on the list. His winning percentage this season was .188, which is 94th on the list. His career winning percentage is .411, which is 94th on the list. His career ERA is 4.67, which is 93rd on the list.

Umm, did I mention there are 94 pitchers in the study?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

this has to be the most biased excerpt ever.

from the exact same article:

[ QUOTE ]
If you're a Mets fan, I hope you're still reading, because I do have one shiny ray of hope. Remember Perez's 4.67 career ERA, 93rd on the list? Well, Nos. 92 and 94 happen to be occupied by the same pitcher … and that same pitcher happens to be starting for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. That's right, folks: No. 92 is Jeff Suppan's 4.60 career ERA (through 2006), and No. 94 is Suppan's 4.80 career ERA (through 2004).

[/ QUOTE ]

suppan's career winning percentage was around .450 before he joined the cardinals, if you believe in that sort of thing.

i think the mets aren't going to let perez go out there more than four innings unless he is dominating, and they will pull him at the first sign of trouble, so the damage of a costly blowup will be largely restricted.

[CarlSpackler]

I already have a prop bet from back in late April that the Mets would go further this season than the Cardinals, so I'm just sticking with that.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's not a ton of value, but I like to GAMBOL in the playoffs (especially in a Game 7), and given that I'm doing so, I'm taking Suppan and the Cards over the worst pitcher ever to start a Game 7.

(If you don't have ESPN insider, I'll leave you with this juicy excerpt.)

[ QUOTE ]
Perez is almost certainly the worst pitcher who's ever started a Game 7. There are 94 pitchers in the study. Perez won three games this season, which places him 94th on the list. His winning percentage this season was .188, which is 94th on the list. His career winning percentage is .411, which is 94th on the list. His career ERA is 4.67, which is 93rd on the list.

Umm, did I mention there are 94 pitchers in the study?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

this has to be the most biased excerpt ever.

from the exact same article:

[ QUOTE ]
If you're a Mets fan, I hope you're still reading, because I do have one shiny ray of hope. Remember Perez's 4.67 career ERA, 93rd on the list? Well, Nos. 92 and 94 happen to be occupied by the same pitcher … and that same pitcher happens to be starting for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. That's right, folks: No. 92 is Jeff Suppan's 4.60 career ERA (through 2006), and No. 94 is Suppan's 4.80 career ERA (through 2004).

[/ QUOTE ]

suppan's career winning percentage was around .450 before he joined the cardinals, if you believe in that sort of thing.

i think the mets aren't going to let perez go out there more than four innings unless he is dominating, and they will pull him at the first sign of trouble, so the damage of a costly blowup will be largely restricted.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wait, so this game has the two worst pitchers ever to start a game seven? OVER!!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Balzac]

Jokes aside thats actually a good point. And regardless of who we all think is going to win, how do you guys feel about the O/U on this one. I was leaning towards U, but now I'm back in the middle

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's not a ton of value, but I like to GAMBOL in the playoffs (especially in a Game 7), and given that I'm doing so, I'm taking Suppan and the Cards over the worst pitcher ever to start a Game 7.

(If you don't have ESPN insider, I'll leave you with this juicy excerpt.)

[ QUOTE ]
Perez is almost certainly the worst pitcher who's ever started a Game 7. There are 94 pitchers in the study. Perez won three games this season, which places him 94th on the list. His winning percentage this season was .188, which is 94th on the list. His career winning percentage is .411, which is 94th on the list. His career ERA is 4.67, which is 93rd on the list.

Umm, did I mention there are 94 pitchers in the study?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

this has to be the most biased excerpt ever.

from the exact same article:

[ QUOTE ]
If you're a Mets fan, I hope you're still reading, because I do have one shiny ray of hope. Remember Perez's 4.67 career ERA, 93rd on the list? Well, Nos. 92 and 94 happen to be occupied by the same pitcher … and that same pitcher happens to be starting for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. That's right, folks: No. 92 is Jeff Suppan's 4.60 career ERA (through 2006), and No. 94 is Suppan's 4.80 career ERA (through 2004).

[/ QUOTE ]

suppan's career winning percentage was around .450 before he joined the cardinals, if you believe in that sort of thing.

i think the mets aren't going to let perez go out there more than four innings unless he is dominating, and they will pull him at the first sign of trouble, so the damage of a costly blowup will be largely restricted.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wait, so this game has the two worst pitchers ever to start a game seven? OVER!!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


Suppan does have game 7 NLCS experience however and it was good. He outdueled Clemens.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the mets aren't going to let perez go out there more than four innings unless he is dominating, and they will pull him at the first sign of trouble, so the damage of a costly blowup will be largely restricted.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like under's on Perez's prop bets because of this. Props seemed to be based on a 5-7 inning appearance where I feel he will put in possibly 4 since the entire staff is avail tonight and Traschel will probably get in there.

I don't expect 2 at bats from Perez and only an offensive explosion might have him get 2.