Hand vs a complete maniac

evagaba · #1 10-19-2006, 10:55 AM

Villian is an incredible 92/25/3.5 after 45 hands. He joined the table with $30 and tripled up VERY quickly.

He has been playing any two cards and raising most every hand he opens either 6bb or 12bb. He also cbets every hand he OPENS, mostly pot sized bets and fires 2nd and 3rd barrels like they are nothing.

I have immediate position on him and have been trying to take advantage of it, but have not caught any cards.

Golden Palace No-Limit Hold'em, $ .20 BB (6 handed)

CO ($18.00)
VILLAIN ($92.50)
SB - HERO ($42.00)
BB ($23.00)
UTG ($27.00)
UTG+1 ($36.00)

Preflop: (6 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG raises $1, Villian calls $1, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, UTG calls $3, Villian calls $3.

Flop: ($12.20, 3 players) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

HERO checks, UTG checks, Villain checks

Turn: ($12.20, 3 players) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

HERO bets $12, UTG folds, Villian raises all-in

Hero ??? I have $26 left.

Shaddux · #2 10-19-2006, 11:07 AM

I think he either flopped big hand, or he is playing the Ah. I don't think he plays this way on the flop with any other hand.

I call.

EDIT: Just realized his cbet occurance is 100% only when he opens. This changes the range of hands he could have obv, but I still call.

Dunkman · #3 10-19-2006, 11:30 AM

Fold, the only way the maniacs check flops is when they hit big.

nofutures · #4 10-19-2006, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, the only way the maniacs check flops is when they hit big.

[/ QUOTE ]
???

He can almost have anything: a flopped flush, he could be on a bluff with 72o, he could have A9, A5, 99, 66, 55 or one heart (A or K).

If he is not a total donk he will know that you know that he plays wildly. He will have at least a slight idea that you will call with an Ace or he thinks you're weak and he can bluff you out of the pot despite him playing like a maniac.

Your odds are 26:50. Now the question is of course if you are ahead 32% of the time. The biggest part of his range is a high heart card, a weak ace and a monster (straight/flush/set/2pair). Let's say the distribution is 20%/20%/60%. You beat the high heart card ~80% of the time. Let's assume forthermore that you have enough outs against 2 pair so that you win 5% of the time he holds a monster (aka 2 pair).

Chance you win (very roughly) = 20% + 20%*80% + 5%*60% = 39%. I haven't included situations where he is purely bluffing or holds a 9. Anyway, I vote for close call!

MortenTA · #5 10-19-2006, 12:47 PM

I could be wrong here ( im trying to learn ) but I dont think we have to be ahead 32% of the time for this call to be +EV.

We can win $76.2 and loose $26

Breakeven for this EV caculation is :

(76.2* 0.26 ) - ( 26*0.74) = $0.57

If we win 26% of the times we will show a small profit by calling.

nofutures · #6 10-19-2006, 12:51 PM

Ups, right. Then it's an easy call.

Jouster777 · #7 10-19-2006, 01:02 PM

No...AAAAAAHHHHH

did it again...look at icemunchers post

IceMuncher · #8 10-19-2006, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here ( im trying to learn ) but I dont think we have to be ahead 32% of the time for this call to be +EV.

We can win $76.2 and loose $26

Breakeven for this EV caculation is :

(76.2* 0.26 ) - ( 26*0.74) = $0.57

If we win 26% of the times we will show a small profit by calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Close, but you've got the pot sizes wrong. $12 already in pot, +$12 from you, +$38 from villian raising you all in = $62, so we're risking $26 to win $62. So we have to win 29.5% of the time to break even.

IceMuncher · #9 10-19-2006, 01:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No...we are risking $26 to win ~$50 (there's ~24 in the pot prior to villain's AI and he adds $26 to match your remaining $26).

So we have about 2:1 odds for...~33% win needed

[/ QUOTE ]

No... villian has to call our $12 bet, and then raise us our last $26. So there's $24 in pot before he pushes, and then he adds $38.

IceMuncher · #10 10-19-2006, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here ( im trying to learn ) but I dont think we have to be ahead 32% of the time for this call to be +EV.

We can win $76.2 and loose $26

Breakeven for this EV caculation is :

(76.2* 0.26 ) - ( 26*0.74) = $0.57

If we win 26% of the times we will show a small profit by calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah nevermind, I see what you did, you thought the pot was $50, and we called for $26, making the pot $76. You don't add the money from your call when doing ev calculations, only the money you can win vs the money you can lose compared with folding.

To illustrate this, since it's kinda hard to explain, let's say that the other player open-pushed you all-in pre-flop HU for $50. Obviously, you have to win half the time to break even, from common sense.

So, we're risking $50 (money we can lose by calling) to win $50 (money in pot before our call), so it's easily shown that we need to win 50% of the time.

(.5 * $50) - (0.5 * $50) = 0

If we included our call, as in your calculation, you'd say we're winning $100, and losing $50, so the breakeven would be 33%.

(0.33 * $100) - (0.66 * $50) = 0

I hope this helps. If not, I'll be online for about half an hour longer.