NL SNG: i need a range for villain

omgwtfnoway · #1 10-18-2006, 08:31 PM

Seat 1: Hero (2,015)
Seat 2: Villain (985)
Hero is SB with [6d 6c]
Hero raises to 120
Villain calls 80
*** FLOP *** [5d 7d Jc]
Villain bets 865, and is all in

key points of the current read are:
1) loves to slowplay
2) has bordered on desperate since becoming the shortie.

a couple hands ago i check folded to a push on a J72 flop (he had limped in) he showed 62s.

what's my play?

jay_shark · #2 10-18-2006, 08:33 PM

I like a fold here .

I've done all the calculations in my head lol

jay_shark · #3 10-18-2006, 08:35 PM

As for a range , he may have attempted this with middle pair decent kicker to top pair .

I don't know much else about his tendencies but even if by chance you are ahead and he has overs , there is still a 25 % chance he will outdraw you .

omgwtfnoway · #4 10-18-2006, 10:51 PM

so no chance his tendency to slowplay + his recent push would make this a profitable call?

Wu36 · #5 10-18-2006, 11:13 PM

Disclaimer, I play nl and probably suck at these.

I think this would be more interesting if you held A7 or K7 here. It puts you ahead of middle pair hands, reverse dominates overcard hands and gives you more outs against tp. With 66 you're ahead of his draws (but most of those have additional overcard outs), overcards and complete air. Unless hes pushing 34, you don't really crush any of those. And we only have 2 outs plus possible backdoors if he has us beat. Looks like a fold to me.

Nichomacheo · #6 10-19-2006, 12:34 AM

You're probably ahead here.

It boils down to how rational he is. If he has a jack, I'd expect him to check to you, then check-raise all in. If he has a 7, I'd expect either that or for him to be afraid of a jack. I really put him on two diamonds here, maybe some sort of OESD. Depending on how high his diamonds are, you're a moderate favorite here.

If you are confident in your ability to beat him by playing, I might wait. If you want to try to end it now, go for it. If he does have diamonds, you hold at least one of his outs.

Risky, but profitable call.

omgwtfnoway · #7 10-19-2006, 01:43 AM

100th post
i felt like it was a really close play and knew that if i was a favorite it couldn't be by much. so i took my time and considered my read, decided that he wouldn't make this play with a jack and probably not a 7. i called and he had AT, he hit his T on the river.