Falcons v. Pittsburgh: OH MY GOD! (YTD 1-1-1 -.1 units)

[YoureToast]

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The money is piling on the steelers and will continue to do so for the rest of the week. The line at bet365 has already moved a full point since monday. I really cant see atlanta winning this game. The steelers defense is too strong, and big ben looks like hes pulled his head out of his arse. The falcons let tiki run all over them last week and i still believe that their run stopping problems from last season have returned even with grady jackson in there. The Falcons O line hung vick out to dry last week and they will do the smae against this very strong steeler defense.
Jim Mora has too many problems to address this week, poor run defense, poor offensive line pass blocking and he also has to address the fact that the majority of players on his defense simply forgot how to tackle last week.
I know a lot of people think that the Falcons had a great start to the season and should be the favourites in this game but they forget that the Falcs had a great start last season (defeating the eagles in the first MNF) and then quickly fell apart. The same will happen this season. They also point to the fact that the steelers havent been great this year, yet they forget that the steelers possess a championship quality defense.. FACT. I took 3 units on the steelers at -1.5(11/10) earlier in the week and im feeeling happy about it. For those of you looking to go with the Falcons id wait till later in the week you may be able to pick them up at +3(11/10).
Also the fact that they were making very little noise in the dome last week when the Falcons were winning leads me to believe that it is not that great an advantage.

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vexel, good post. A lot of what you say is true. Ultimately, my take on the game is that the perceived value of both teams changed dramatically because of one Sunday. If this game were played last week, the Falcons would have been favored by 3 or slightly more. Obviously, last Sunday's games might be a more true reflection of the quality of both teams, but in my experience, value shifts like this are overreactions and usually wrong. That is my primary reason for liking the Falcons so much. Like any other bet, there are no guarantees, but I really like the value in this line and will like it more at 3. Now, if I learn that both Rod Coleman and Patrick Kerney are out or if there are any surprise injuries, my opinion may change a bit.

Related note: one of the consquences of the Falcons' poor run defense last week will be, I believe, the reinstitution of Ed Hartwell in the starting lineup. Although we can't really know what impact that will have, I would venture a guess that doing so will help the Falcons cover the OUTSIDE running attack (which is where the Giants hurt the Falcons), because Keith Brooking will replace fast, but imminently blockable Demorrio Williams. Also note that no team prior to the Giants had attacked the Falcons to the outside and they were not prepared for it. You can bet they will be prepared better this week.

[droopy0021]

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big ben looks like hes pulled his head out of his arse

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Or looks like he's recovered from appendectomy < 6 weeks ago and motorcycle accident that nearly killed him 4 months ago.

[vexel77]

Yeah, your right on that one. Dont think the steelers should have put him in when he wasnt right. Batch appeared to be an able deputy. I take that back.

[JJguy]

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This line could be minus 3 either direction and be correct. It should be a close game. I see little value here for either team. It is just another good matchup.

Staying off this game.

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If that's the case then ATL +2.5 is a great line to tease across the 7.

[Shipwreck]

falcons: #1 rushing, #32 passing (NFL.com)

To me that tells the whole story. 8 even 9 people in the box for pittsburgh; line is about appropriate. Pitts. has only been weak to the pass, they played well against SD and KC's run games. Yes they lost to the jags but 9-0 is hardly a blowout, especially playing on the road-and due to a as mentioned unrecovered rothlisberger's turnovers in my opinion. Pittsburgh played well against the number two rushing team, San Diego, on the road this year.

[MacGuyV]

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Watch out for the Steelers. I think they are just getting healthy and hitting their stride. I am actually pleased with how they have played so far even though they have a losing record to this point.

Week 1: Beat Miami 28-17. Nothing special. They beat an over-hyped Miami team. The interception for a TD late in the game made everyone here happy due to the Mansion bet. That did not decide the game, only the cover.

Week 2: Lost 9-0 at Jacksonville. Jacksonville played one hell of a game. I don't think anyone would have beat them that night in their house. This was a great game and an acceptable loss to a tough team on the road.

Week 3: Lost 20-28 to Cincy. They had this game in hand and then 2 late fumbles gave the game away. This is only loss that makes me angry. They should have won this.

Week 4: Bye

Week 5: Lost 13-23 at San Diego. Again, this is an acceptable loss. San Diego is one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the league in my opinion.

Week 6: Beat Kansas City 45-7. Kansas City is one-dimentional. They run LJ with a beat up O-line and have a backup QB leading the team. Pitt stops the run. That leaves KC with little chance.


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These were about my exact thoughts in the "early thoughts" thread a few days ago - not many teams could get as poor QB play as the Steelers got in Jax&SD and still be in those games in the 4th Qtr and not many teams would win those games even if their QB played well. The Cincy game turned on a muffed punt.

BTW - wtf happened to Deuce Staley?

[brendanb438]

I put $20 on Pitt just because they were at -2.5 and are 1 of my 2 teams in the NFL. I don't expect much from them this season with the start they had.

-Brendan

[NoChance]

1st half thoughts.....

If it were not for two Pitt fumbles at their own 20, this game would look almost exactly like the Pit/KC game last week. Pit dominated the first half even though the score does not show it.

[SLP]

Five TDs on 220 yards total offense. Ship it.

[SLP]

Oh, and gg Ben. Hello, Chaz Batch!