MLET Challenge: Sleeman Action

[OziBattler]

holy crap, thats alot of analysis. clearly Im going to have to do more for future hands to just keep up with you guys and also cos it will help my game.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
holy crap, thats alot of analysis. clearly Im going to have to do more for future hands to just keep up with you guys and also cos it will help my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thrakkar has hurt my poor head! I'd just be betting the flop, thinking I'm probably beating a stealraiser with MP, but I like how he thought it out. The turn analysis is mindbending but it gave the right result!

[Smurph64]

This hand is a gem in my books because it goes exactly where I hoped it would go. Great job here.

From Str8fish's poker stove analysis saying he needs 39 others to see the flop, all the way to the reason for a steal attempt to Thrakkar's defense analysis its just a thrilling read for me.

My favourite quote:

Unfortunately this turn did help my hand. Now what shall I do?
-Thrakkar

[Guruman]

i really don't like thrakkar's turn play.

He could have won more from me by checking the turn and allowing me to bet, and he's a HUGE dog if his bet gets called.

In my opinion he has a clear turn check as his first action, and then a decision to make about the strength of my hand and my current range.

When leads the turn the way he did, he's getting the worst of both worlds: I fold when he's beat, and I call or raise when he's not. He allowed me to play perfectly, which is a pretty high crime in poker.

Check and let me make a mistake please.

[Smurph64]

I don't know about this one Guruman. I don't get your logic that you fold when he is beat here or call or raise when he's not.

[Guruman]

i thiknk you misunderstood me.

I fold when he's winning. I call or raise when he's beat.

There's very little middle ground there when he leads the turn, as the only better hand he can possibly force out is specifically A8, and that one I'll consider showing down.

If he checks the turn though, I'm very likely to bet again or to check through and call a river bet, both of which are mistakes in this specific hand. Thrakkar thinks that the only way he can win is to push me off of a jack I guess, but the fact is that he'll never be able to do so and will get valuebet to death when I do have a jack.

bottom line: On the turn Thrakkar has a medicore hand on a semi scary board vs an aggressive and thinking opponent. His best bet is to either let me bluff or move on to a better spot. Leading out there allows me to play perfectly.

[Smurph64]

I think you make a false assumption here though. From his perspective there is no way you are going to think he is betting with a lousy third best pair.

And honestly there is no reason to suggest that you will not bet out with a better hand than he had on the turn. So his play was a semi bluff steal not a I have the best hand here and I want more money in the pot.

He wants to win it now, not at a showdown. Showdown value of his hand is crap. How can he get you to fold? Donk it is a good choice.

Less expensive than a check/raise still has some showdown or fold equity and a draw if you call and it's a pretty clear fold if you raise it.

I think it worked out perfectly because of what the holdings were, but I am pretty sure neither of you put each other on what you actually had.

[Guruman]

i dont think that I did make a false assumption. I also disagree that the showdown value of his hand is crap, since my range includes so many worse pocket pairs, Ax air, and other randomness.

Of course he's repping a bigger hand than he has. Thats fine. The question is: what better hands are folding? I'm not letting go of a J, and that K is right in my range.

The only hands I'm going to fold incorrectly are 99, TT, and maybe A8.

If he checks though, Im still betting pretty much my entire range on the turn, much of which is behind his hand.

its simple poker shorthand in these situations:

if he bets there is a very slim range of incorrect folds I'll make.

If he checks there is a much wider range of incorrect bets that I'll make.

[Thrakkar]

Guru, Smurph - I like your discussion! Now let me add my 2 cents (I know that I wrote A LOT on what my reasons for my actions were and that this might be hard to understand or simply too long for some people to read at all, so let me summarize the main parts.):

[ QUOTE ]
Thrakkar thinks that the only way he can win is to push me off of a jack I guess, but the fact is that he'll never be able to do so and will get valuebet to death when I do have a jack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that's <u>close</u> to what I thought: [ QUOTE ]
My only chance to win the pot is that he holds a hand that has little chance to win against a paired king AND that he folds according to his bad odds. As the pot offers 3.5-to-1 this has to work about 23% of the times. According to i1) he might fold as much as 70% of the times, so I think I'll give it a try.

Call it a semi-bluff or a re-steal - I bet!

[/ QUOTE ]

BUT: I made the assumption that Guru would FOLD [ QUOTE ]
if he "knew" that I just paired the king on the flop, because he has less than 7 outs (if I bet now and bet/call on the river he gets 3 bets from me plus 3.5 already in the pot = 6.5-to-1 which translates into 7 outs or more).

[/ QUOTE ]

What I don't understand is [ QUOTE ]
...that he'll never be able to do so and will get valuebet to death when I do have a jack.

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You wouldn't be able to "valuebet", because [ QUOTE ]
It's very clear, that my chances of winning are very slim in case he calls. Therefore I should not call a turn raise, even if I suspected him very much to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
In fact you shouldn't let ME valuebet you to death with KK vs. JJ! Wouldn't it make you think that I flat called until a K fell and then I wake up, call your turn raise or even 3-bet (letting you "valuecap me to death" [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])?

Where's the logic in "valuebetting" a pair of Jacks vs. a pair of Kings? Please explain!

Also my 2 cents on: [ QUOTE ]
I fold when he's winning. I call or raise when he's beat.

[/ QUOTE ] This is only clear cut <u>IF</u> you hold a made hand like AA, pair of K, a set etc. It already gets difficult for you (IMHO, but see above) if you hold a paired Jack. How would you know that you have me beat and that betting/raising is OK?

Also there are hands that I have beat, but you shouldn't fold all of them IMHO: You SHOULD fold a gutshot AQ, AT, QT, Q9 (all likely holdings for a steal!). But you have odds to draw to a flush!

Looks like Smurph understood my line of thinking: [ QUOTE ]
From his perspective there is no way you are going to think he is betting with a lousy third best pair.

And honestly there is no reason to suggest that you will not bet out with a better hand than he had on the turn. So his play was a semi bluff steal not a I have the best hand here and I want more money in the pot.

He wants to win it now, not at a showdown. Showdown value of his hand is crap. How can he get you to fold? Donk it is a good choice.

Less expensive than a check/raise still has some showdown or fold equity and a draw if you call and it's a pretty clear fold if you raise it.

[/ QUOTE ] That sums it up pretty nicely!

Thoughts? Comments?
-Thrakkar

[Guruman]

thrakkar, thanks for the deatiled response. My thoughts:

1)a king doesn't stopngo almost ever. It either check/calls or check/raises most of the time, because what just happened is likely to happen then as well - the worse hands will just curl up and fold and the K will not win anymore bets.

2)because of the effect of number one, I'm much more likely to see a showdown with anything legit. I'm not going to fold a jack. I promise.

3)even though your hand is almost never a king, its also almost never complete air. This is because so much of that board is right in the middle of my range, and because there are so few draws out there. Your bet looks like one that wants to get called (honestly it looks a lot like either a jack, a good 8, or a total monster that wants to threebet)

4)because your hand looks like it does, I'm probably folding most of my low pocket pairs, my weak 8s, and my Ax air. You correctly surmised that you can fold to a raise from me, but you should also keep in mind exactly how much of a dog you are when I call.

5)since you're a huge dog when I call, your turn bet is essentially a pure bluff. You have five outs if you dont get raised, but the pot is not nearly the size you need it to be to justify that. IOW I'll have to both have and fold a better hand a very high percentage of the time in order to justify the bluff based on the pot size. I'll reiterate that I'm not folding a jack to the turn donk because the turn donk doesnt look like a K. It looks like a J.

6)again, because of the nature of your bet, the action, my range, and the board - I'm not going to be able to call with any weak pocket pairs, drawless hands, or any otherwise whiffed stealing hands. Your hand looks too much like a made (non K) pair, so I've got to pitch that part of my range. Once again: because I cannot call with many worse hands, your turn bet is not for value and therefore only has value as a bluff.

7)If instead of betting you were to check, I would bet my entire range, much of which you are still beating. You could at that point choose to just call me down, or to call here and check/fold the river - since I'd have to check behind most of my weaker showdown hands like pps and Ax.

the sum of all of this is that I will be allowed to make a greater and wider range of mistakes if you check this hand than if you bet it, and you are often making a larger and wider ranges of mistakes when you bet the turn.

I'll reiterate that I'm not folding a jack because your turn bet doesnt look like a king.