Watch me botch AJo

[Grizwold]

Reads: It's a 2/4 Live LHE game. Table is pretty loose and drunk. Half the table is in their 20s and are guys talking about football. One guy is also watching football in our game, he is the cold-caller. He never got out of line, had lower than average VPIP, and played very predictably. I was certain he had nothing after the flop and his focus was back on the TV, so he is not villain here. UTG is villain and also has never got out of line, and was rarely tricky postflop. He was a pretty standard live 2/4 opponent.

2/4 Live, No small blind. Hero is UTG+1 w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain calls, Hero raises, 4 fold, CO cold-calls, 2 fold, Villain calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 SB, 3 Players)
Villain checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3.5 BB, 3 Players)
Villain checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

River: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3.5 BB, 3 Players)
Villain bets, Hero raises, CO folds, Villain calls.

Final Pot: 7.5 BB

I messed this one up big time. I guess I should have continued on the raggy flop, and maybe again on the turn depending on how the action went behind my bet on the flop. Or at least bet on the turn if it was checked around on the flop? Sometimes I have a hard time determining when to c-bet and how many times. By the time it was checked through to the river, I thought villain may be trying to steal or betting a small pair so I bluffed although I can't determine if I should have folded or just called to try to pick off a bluff. How bad did I mess this one up?

[gezuz]

cbet flop, then fold river. If villain doesn't get tricky ever, don't try to call him out in this really small pot.

[OziBattler]

if these guys are predictable then you can safely bet the flop. plays differently from then on.

i dont really want to comment on the river cos to be honest, I wouldnt have let it get to that stage.

I love predictable players. They make poker easier.

[knockonwood]

This a good live hand to post IMO. You have a table of spastics and there are 3 people seeing the flop (tight by live standards). There is only one card in the playing zone.

I would definetly bet the flop here. These villains won't raise your bet, they will call it. I've been playing live 4-8 lately and it is total mindfuck.

Speaking of live games, this is definetly where value betting is where its at.

[cold_cash]

One thing I've noticed about live play, especially when you're in a casino or cardroom, is that very, very few players are disciplined/good enough to fold for one bet on the river, ESPECIALLY if they've already put a bet in. I imagine becomes more common as the limit decreases.

The only thing worse than raising this river is calling it, but neither one of those choices gives me the warm fuzzies.

What hand are you hoping he's going to fold?

[Grizwold]

I thought this guy was capable to try to steal after we checked through the previous streets, or that he may fold an 8 or 2 at the end facing a raise. I was actually trying to determine if this was a profitable spot to bluff on the end. I was laying him 6.5:1 w/ my raise, and I was risking 2 BB to win 4.5 BB. I was hoping he would fold about 50% of the time to that raise, or that if he may call there would be a chance he had nothing also and I would still win w/ AJ high. Although bluffing is not nearly as powerful at small stakes limit as it is at other games, and since I never bluff in a spot like this, I thought this time I may give it a shot. Still a bad play?

[DrModern]

The flop is, on balance, a fairly good spot for a continuation bet.

As Aussie says, the hand plays much differently from there.

One major point about the river bluff raise, though. You say:

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping he would fold about 50% of the time to that raise

[/ QUOTE ]

At this limit, especially live, villains fold basically never. Don't try this kind of fancy play against drunk LPP opponents.