how much to bet

RDWallace · #1 01-31-2006, 08:11 AM

Prior to this hand I'd played several pots with villain, none of which went past the flop. He likely views me as solid, I know him to be generally tight and rockish. On the river, what range do you have him on? What is the right amount to bet to extract value against this range? I didn't even think about going for a c/r because if he were to value bet a possible flush it would likely be for less than a PSB and he would not call a raise. Thanks for the read.
-RDW

BB ($689.50)
UTG ($459.80)
UTG+1 ($1191)
MP1 ($1707.05)
MP2 ($1477)
CO ($1172)
Button ($885)
Hero ($1355)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $10, 2 folds, MP2 calls $10, CO calls $10, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $30, UTG calls $30, MP2 calls $30, CO folds, Hero calls $30.

Turn: ($170) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets $90, Hero raises to $250, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls $160.

River: ($660) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

RDWallace · #2 01-31-2006, 08:39 AM

Ok so I was hoping to get some feedback before I posted this, but here goes. On the river, I folded with $765 behind, having invested nearly half my stack, getting basically 3-1 on my call with the 4th nuts in hand. Thoughts?

Hero bets $300, MP2 raises to $1237, Hero folds.

Hattifnatt · #3 01-31-2006, 08:41 AM

I would have called here for that price (probably even for a worse price) even if I wouldnt like it very much. He might have the A-flush or for example A2s for a lower full.

I definitely think he would had raised preflop with AA or QQ (after a limper, if he has QQ then I think he would had folded on the turn).

Of course he could have the quads but that we cant worry about very much.

JFM · #4 01-31-2006, 08:53 AM

What hand would MP limp with that A2? A8? 22? Axs?
Iwould make it around 250 and call any raise. If he has 22 then so bee it.

J. Sawyer · #5 01-31-2006, 09:39 AM

You definitely need to bet that river, I'm not really sure what the best # is... at least half the pot i'd say

Almost all of the time he raises AA/QQ preflop and 22 is highly unlikely. I call the river everytime w/out exception. Although expecting to lose sometimes.

all_in_lam · #6 01-31-2006, 10:08 AM

You have the 2nd nuts here. AA and QQ should be eliminated from the equation. Nobody would play AA so weakly and nobody would calls 250 on the turn with QQ. Only 22 has you beat.

I bet raiser has A2 Q2 or flush
You must be playing too high if you can't CALL ALL IN on this one.

galahad_187 · #7 01-31-2006, 11:08 AM

i don't get it..
does he really have 22 30% of the time here? i doubt it. 10-20% maybe but not 1 in 3 times. Raise the flop too, you have 3 people trapped perfectally and anyone with a weakerish Aces is probably cehcking the turn fearing a slowplayed set - correctly so.

I'd make it either a mini raise just to try and trap people for 30 extra bucks or i'd make it 100.

CavMan · #8 01-31-2006, 02:07 PM

easy call on the river. i put him on a flush, or possibly A2

#9 01-31-2006, 02:14 PM

raise flop

voltron. · #10 01-31-2006, 02:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise flop

[/ QUOTE ]

raising this flop sucks against these players