med pps are the bane of my existence

detruncate · #1 10-16-2006, 04:16 PM

So far Villain seems like a LAG (50ish VPIP + moderately aggressive pf) + has been aggressive but not horribly spewtastic post flop. I'd expect him to raise a wide range on the turn (obviously a 9, but also a 2, PPs, an 8, flush/straight draws, maybe an A).

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

I don't think he folds enough better hands/calls enough worse hands on this board to donk or c/r. If I'm showing down, best chance of getting a worse hand to put in chips seems to be a bluff catching c/c. I'm not particularly concerned about losing a bet vs the hands we beat when the A scares him into a check since this isn't a friendly board for us re. making him a decent 2nd best hand + he might see the A as another good bluffing card despite my pfr + he might get spooked and check through a better hand. Yes, I know that last bit is contradictory. I don't yet have a good read on him.

So... do we have enough equity vs a random LAG to see a showdown, or is it time to fold?

Anyone hate the turn b/c?

Thanks in advance.

milesdyson · #2 10-16-2006, 04:43 PM

wont he bet a 2 if you check the turn? wont he fairly often bet a hand like A5 or QT if you check there? basically i dont see much against a turn check call. you obviously dont want to be raised on the turn and he seems like the type to value bet your hand for you

Scary_Tiger · #3 10-16-2006, 04:50 PM

Turn bet/call is fine, check/call the river.

danzasmack · #4 10-16-2006, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wont he bet a 2 if you check the turn? wont he fairly often bet a hand like A5 or QT if you check there? basically i dont see much against a turn check call. you obviously dont want to be raised on the turn and he seems like the type to value bet your hand for you

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking like this during a hand = $$$

OP,

so we know he's a lag and we know he limped UTG. What the flip. Can we rule out AX[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then? Do you have any idea what his limping UTG range is? I want to put him on a hand like JT but I feel like he raises that.

If I'm bet/calling the turn I am either c/r'ing a 7 on the river or c/c'ing a lot (I might c/f a T or J or something). I think you can check call in this spot his range could be huge here and when he bets that river it's basically a toss up between a total bluff or a 9. If he bets an 8 you owe him a candy bar.

detruncate · #5 10-16-2006, 05:12 PM

I don't many hands with Villain at this point. It's a toss up whether he raises TJ up front. He seems to be limping quite often compared to his 50 VPIP (like maybe a 15% pfr if I had to guess), but it's too early to have much idea about his raising range in EP.

3 BB seems like a lot to spend showing down on a board like this, and his turn raising range is wide enough that we have to c/c a lot on the river as you suggest even though we're not happy about it sometimes. Do we fold when the flush completes? How about when a J/T/7/Q falls? Then there's the A question.

The passive line myles suggested seems like a better idea. Though it does frustrate my apparent pathological need to put myself in uncomfortable positions.

Mossberg · #6 10-16-2006, 05:37 PM

3bb is alot to spend showing down on a board like this. Too much IMO. So I prefer a C/C for the reasons Miles has mentioned. Honestly, it is truely a great feeling when you manage to induce a bluff out of a 50/x type of player on 2 consecutive streets [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I think the only valid argument for betting the turn is that we get to see how he is responding in these HU situations. Will he raise the turn as a bluff and check behind on the river? Will he fire another barrel to continue his bluff on the river? That is certainly valuable information, but we can basically figure out those same things for a cheaper price by just check-calling.

ejay · #7 10-16-2006, 06:51 PM

I agree with myles that turn cc might be best but i usally end up bet calling there. I think that by far the best river option is cc.