Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 6

[Performify]

Sorry these are later than usual. Busy week between handicapping two MMA events + the NFL, plus trying to get as much time in on my bike before winter arrives...

Results to date: Last week: 1-2-1 on picks +0.77 units. 1-0 on Teaser +2 units. Total +2.77 units last week.

YTD RESULTS: 10-7-2 on posted picks, +8.53 units (excludes teasers)
1-2-2 on Game of the Week, -4.8 units. 2-1 on Tease of the Week, +0 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): +8.53 units

Eagles -3 (-107) at New Orleans
I've heard quite a bit of talk of this as a "letdown game" for Philadelphia following a tough matchup with division rivals Dallas. But I really do not expect that here. The Eagles bring the NFL's top-rated offense and No. 1-ranked passing offense to New Orleans to face a Saints' defense that allowed a season-high 406 total yards in a 24-21 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Saints are allowing 4.9 ypc on the ground, and the Eagles have Brian Westbrook the healthiest he's been since the season started (practicing two full days this week, and then taking Friday off to ensure no swelling in the knee). The Saints just lost starting strong safety Roman Harper to a torn ACL, and are forced to replace him with Omar Stoutmire. Stoutmire was active in the Saints dime package, so they're forced to fill his spot there with 13-year veteran Jay Bellamy off the waiver wire. These two gaps in the secondary will hurt the Saints pretty badly against the NFL's best passing attack and best offensive attack. The strong safety is an especially important role against McNabb due to his mobility. Look for McNabb to scramble even more than normal, forcing the second-string safety to commit and then bombing several big downfield passes behind him (or taking the ball himself if Stoutmire doesn't commit). The Eagles are also deadly off play-action passes, which put a lot of pressure on the safeties as well. All-in-all, a backup safety starting is about the worst thing that could happen to the Saints this week short of losing Brees. The Saints corners are physical but slow and can get burned. Mike McKenzie is quick but lacks downfield speed, and Fred Thomas is a tough solid tackler but is only 5-9 and can be abused downfield by the Eagles big, fast receivers Brown and Baskett. The Saints will frequently use cover-2, in which Eagles tight end LJ Smith will be able to abuse the slower, smaller Saints linebackers.

On defense, look for the Eagles to put strong safety Mike Lewis in the box a lot to help contain the Saints rushing attack and force them to the air. Thanks to the return of cornerback Lito Sheppard, the Eagles can afford to have more safety help on the run game and leave their standout defensive backs in man. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is one of the NFL's highest paid assistants for a reason, and you'll see why in this game. Look for him to throw a variety of schemes at Brees to keep the Saints off-balance and Brees out of sync. The Eagles also have a strong special teams unit: their punt coverage unit is giving up only 3.8 yards a return, with a long of 11 yards on the season. Don't look for any monster returns out of Bush this week.

I know the Saints are a feel-good team right now, with an impressive 4-1 start. But this week their schedule turns against them. Following the Eagles, the Saints play the Ravens, Bucs, Steelers, Bengals and Falcons. The Eagles have won six straight against the Saints, and this week makes it seven. 21-17 Philly, game of the week.

Bengals -6 (+114) at Bucs
While rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski's mobility sparked the Bucs offense against the Saints in Week five, the Bucs had a week off to prepare for that game. Here the tables are turned: the Bengals had a week off to analyze their offensive struggles and With less time to prepare, against a superior offensive attack, the Bucs won't see the same success. Tampa Bay's defense has been weak against the run all year - they allowed 123 yards to Deuce McAllister last week, for example - and Rudi Johnson should put up monster numbers against them. Cinci has big strong run blockers, especially at the edge with their tight end and fullback, and should win the battle at the point of attack. Marvin Lewis' defense is a master at creating turnovers and against a vanilla offense and rookie quarterback you should see at least two turnovers in the Bengals favor here: Cincinnati's defense has produced 12 takeaways in just four games. The Bengals have been pourous against the run this year, but Cadillac hasn't been good all season with the exception of last week's performance. With the bye week to prepare, the Bengals will certainly come in with a gameplan for shutting down Williams and getting pressure on Gradkowski. The Bengals are coming off a bad beating by the Patriots and will rebound in a big way here. On the other side, the Bucs are being overrated here because of a solid performance off a bye week against an overrated Saints team. 28-17 Bengals, worth a two unit play.

Kansas City +7 (-113) at Pittsburgh
Yes, Larry Johnson is definitely playing. The Steelers are in a must-win situation, but this is too many points to give up against a strong Kansas City team, for a poorly performing Pittsburgh team. Look for the Steelers to jam the line and try to force backup QB Damon Huard to beat them. Huard has proven adequeate to the challenges so far: his 107.4 QB rating is second in the NFL, and he's yet to throw an INT. Look for a lot of short passes from Huard, including the usual assortment of screens and flares to LJ. The casual fan thinks that Pittsburgh will blitz Huard in to oblivion, but KC's offense is probably the best to deal with the blitz of any team: they use a ton of quick, rhythm throws that are usually very successful against teams that blitz too much. Also look for Huard to take a couple shots downfield.

Kansas City has very quick and athletic linebacking corps, which matchup very well with Willie Parker's perimiter rushing style. Gunther Cunningham's defense is allowing only 13 points and just 254.3 yards a game, which is fourth best in the NFL. The Chiefs get OT Kyle Turley back this week, but they're planning on keeping him on the bench to Jordan Black - the team's gone 2-0 since Black took over - but Turley provides some nice depth. Look for the KC defense to continue their Cover 2 defense to limit big plays, to shut down the Steelers rushing attack with their linebackers, and force the game on to the slumping shoulders of Big Ben: Roethlisberger has seven interceptions and no touchdowns on the season. 20-17 Pittsburgh for the KC cover.

Falcons -3 (-105) vs Giants
The Falcons combine the NFL's top rushing offense with one of the best defenses at stopping the run. The Giants depend on a balanced attack, and they won't find much balance against a Falcons defense allowing less than 70 yards per game on the ground. Look for the Falcons to put eight men in the box constantly moving up either of their two good safeties, to both contain Tiki Barber and put additional pressure on Eli Manning. The Falcons can get good pressure on the QB with just their front four, which should allow them to drop seven men in coverage on obvious passing downs. The Giants will depend on not getting in third and long situations, and the Falcons will do their best to force exactly that. The Giants are doing a decent job of containing opposing rushing attacks, but that's mostly a misnomer because they've been giving up 230 yards per game in the air with a porous secondary. The Falcons are also coming off a bye week here, and will be rested on both sides of the ball. The Falcons get big defensive end John Abraham back as well as middle linebacker Ed Hartwell, both big boosts to their defense. The Falcons also have an edge at special teams, with electrifying kick returner Allen Rossum playing like he did in 2004. Falcons 24, Giants 17.

Jets -3 (+115 on Bodog) vs Dolphins
The Jets got absolutely smoked last week against the Jaguars, but will rebound this week against a mediocre Miami team. Even with Little Joey Harrington at QB, the Miami offensive line has serious issues that are holding back both their rushing and passing attacks. The Jets will attack the weak Dolphins offensive line, disrupting the passing game and stunting the run as well. Look for the Jets to run to the left all day, with emerging RB Leon Washington running behind linemen Pete Kendall and D'Brickashaw Ferguson at the weaker (against the run) Miami defensive tackle Vonnie Holiday and end Jason Taylor. The Texans mediocre rushing attack was able to run on the Dolphins by running left, and the Jets will certainly be able to do so. That will open up play action for Pennington. 21-17 Jets. Taking this at -3 instead of the avaialble -2.5 as I have the Jets winning by more than three more often than normal here. Currently -3 -113 is available on Pinnacle with a slightly better -3 +115 on Bodog.

Tease of the Week: San Diego -3, Chicago -4
I grabbed several units of a very +EV tease on Sunday, and posted it on 2+2 at that time. It was only up for about 20 minutes though: the Chicago game opened at -9.5 and moved quickly from there, currently to -11. San Diego likewise opened at -7.5 and has currently moved all the way to -9. So my teaser is a much more +EV tease of San Diego -0.5, Chicago -2.5. But since that was open for only twenty minutes, I'm going to go ahead and recommend this tease for those following along and looking for a teaser this week. While not nearly as +EV as the early tease I grabbed, I still expect this two team, seven point tease to win with a very high probability.

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Summary of Posted Plays [*] Eagles -3 (-107) : 5.35u to win 5u[*] Bengals -6 (+114) : 2u to win 2.28u[*] Chiefs +7 (-113) : 1.13u to win 1u[*] Falcons -3 (-105) : 1.05u to win 1u[*] Jets -3 (+115) : 1u to win 1.15u[*] Teaser: San Diego -3, Chicago -4: 1.2u to win 1u[/list]

[BUTNAHHHH]

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINNING WEEK, AND THANKS FOR THE EARLY TEASER PLAY, LUCKILY I SIT BY MY COMPUTER DAY AND NIGHT LOOKING FOR POSTS BY YOU. THANKS FOR YOUR EXPERTISE AND GOOD LUCK

[rjp]

With you on the Bengals, Chiefs, and Falcons.

No idea why the Bengals are being bet down like they are--must the injuries or the way they're being viewed because of their last game. They're tied for #1 in my power ratings. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JJguy]

Great post. Thanks Performify. My picks were identical.

Interesting tease play. Maybe I'll place it before the games tomorrow.

[chalk7]

performify,

can you comment on the cincy point spread and the corresponding money lines as to where the most +ev is? pinny has their default at -4.5 (-101) and i have seen -6 (+116) on another book. i see you went with -6 and wanted your thoughts. thanks.

[Performify]

There's very little difference between -4.5 and -6, as the NFL very rarely fall on 5-point margin.
In this situation where I have Cincy covering more than a TD, i'll take the better line at -6

[Performify]

Teaser: San Diego -3, Chicago -4: 1.2u to win 1u

FYI if you're not already on this, San Diego is back down to -9.5 on Pinnacle, so a 7-point tease there pulls it back inside 3 which ups the value. Chicago has climbed to -11.5 so you'd be teasing to -4.5, which is still about the same value, just a little bit left.

[MookieBlaylock]

I had several of your picks today. It sucks to lose a bet on bad calls by the refs (BS flag on Cinci late in the 4th) and bizarre plays (Philly punt returner getting drilled by his own man). A game is not decided on 1 play alone, but these calls/plays seriously changed the outcome. Just wanted to rant a little.

[MacGuyV]

Ouch

[CharlieDontSurf]

Yeah..I got hammered on the Phili game(3 units)...thought they had it when they went up by 7 but man their defense sucks.

So far so good on the teaser though...if Chi can throttle Az then at least I'll get part of it back.