100K hand stats post - Page 6

tjfields · #51 10-12-2006, 08:55 PM

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Miles do you think that's variance that his blind numbers are so low (or high, whatever)? Or does he know something we don't about blind play?? Marquis, my weakest link in my game is blinds. Wtf are you doing there to make your numbers look so sweet?

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A few of the things I am doing from the blinds, in no particular order:
1. Getting lucky.
2. 3-betting or folding the SB vs. a steal.
3. Defending from the BB with hands that tend to connect with more flops and checkraising when they do, or hands that have showdown value.
4. Knowing who it is that is stealing.
5. Stabbing at lots of flops HU.
6. Stabbing at dry 3-way flops from the BB when the SB checks.

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All these thigns are correct. This, combined with being one hot-running summbitch, why your blind numbers are so good.

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Oooooh, ooooooh, let me take another guess.

Perhaps he is very picky about who sits to his right, so his blinds don't get picked on. It is much easier to lose less in the blinds when you don't have guys trying to steal them all the time.

I'm sure it is a combination of all of the above, but I think seat selection plays an under-rated part in people's winrate.

btspider · #52 10-13-2006, 12:31 PM

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I'm sure it is a combination of all of the above, but I think seat selection plays an under-rated part in people's winrate.

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its definitely a combination of good play and good luck. winrates simply don't converge until you have hundreds of thousands of hands. its far too early to tell his winrate for specific positions. i've seen people winning from the blinds after 20K or so hands.

also note that if he hits a draw from the BB and takes a good sized pot (say 15 BB's), but would have lost 5 BB's if the draw did not hit.. that this one hand has a 20 BB swing in terms of his profit from the big blind.

at 1/2, that 20 BB swing is $40.. he's down $600 after 11K hands... so even a single hand after 11K hands can result in about a 7% swing in his winrate from that position. its entirely possible that he's running well to the tune of winning 7 or so more big hands than his expectations and about 10-15 small-mid sized hands after 11K hands.

skillzilla · #53 10-13-2006, 02:39 PM

move up while your still running good

Marquis · #54 10-13-2006, 06:45 PM

Man, I waited until I got 100K hands in before I posted this and people STILL say I'm just lucky. How many hands do you need to have to get some love around here?

MrWookie · #55 10-13-2006, 06:56 PM

There's plenty of love in this thread, and people are duly impressed. However, it's also more likely that you're a great poker player who's also quite lucky rather than the greatest poker player to ever walk the earth.

btspider · #56 10-13-2006, 07:10 PM

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Man, I waited until I got 100K hands in before I posted this and people STILL say I'm just lucky. How many hands do you need to have to get some love around here?

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no one yet has said its just luck.. but it is luck + skill, especially in the blind play. you've got 10K hands while the current views of sustainable winrates from the blinds has been arrived from millions of hands from the blinds from a wide range of players.

did you have any big downswings? more than one? these questions aren't putting your results down, they are trying to expand the knowledge of variance on this forum.

didn't someone in SSSH create some mechanism for trying to measure luck based on the number of straights, flushes, etc..?

also, anyone know the user who posted a 100K sample for .50/1.00.. this was maybe 18-24 months ago.. i'm searching archives now.. his name started with an 'I' i think.

added: 150K hands
unfortunately the image is gone.

Str8Fish · #57 10-13-2006, 07:22 PM

don't get us wrong Marquis... it's just that we doubt that your blind stats can be sustainable. They're HELLA impressive, and frankly, I'm hella jealous. I'm only at 12k of my 6-max experience. Still adjusting and reading all the essential posts out there on the matter. Keep up the good work... and please, seriously, move up to 1/2 6-max. I'm sure you can see more profit at higher levels.

Marquis · #58 10-13-2006, 07:55 PM

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no one yet has said its just luck.. but it is luck + skill, especially in the blind play. you've got 10K hands while the current views of sustainable winrates from the blinds has been arrived from millions of hands from the blinds from a wide range of players.

did you have any big downswings? more than one? these questions aren't putting your results down, they are trying to expand the knowledge of variance on this forum.

didn't someone in SSSH create some mechanism for trying to measure luck based on the number of straights, flushes, etc..?

also, anyone know the user who posted a 100K sample for .50/1.00.. this was maybe 18-24 months ago.. i'm searching archives now.. his name started with an 'I' i think.

added: 150K hands
unfortunately the image is gone.

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I think I have like 30K+ hands from the blinds in my stats. That seems like a lot to me. Since I've always "run well," I've always been the guy doubting when people say that x winrate isn't sustainable. I'm pretty sure of one thing, my winrate will not be sustainable without Party.

I've had a 2 or 3 downswings that got over 100BBs but I dont think any of them quite got to 150BBs.

I remember that post very well. It's from a response to his post that I started mine by saying that it wasn't because of a lost bet that I came to play all these hands at .5/1. Somebody posted a big rock in that thread, and that's exactly what his stats looked like. There was no question he wasn't playing optimally and still turning 4BB/100.

droolie · #59 10-13-2006, 07:57 PM

WOW! Grats duder!

Marquis · #60 10-13-2006, 07:58 PM

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don't get us wrong Marquis... it's just that we doubt that your blind stats can be sustainable. They're HELLA impressive, and frankly, I'm hella jealous. I'm only at 12k of my 6-max experience. Still adjusting and reading all the essential posts out there on the matter. Keep up the good work... and please, seriously, move up to 1/2 6-max. I'm sure you can see more profit at higher levels.

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Thanks. I've been mixing in more 1/2 than ever lately. Who knows, I might not see as big a difference from one limit to the other in opponent's skill level under the current landscape as I did in the old. The one thing that's most kept me at .5/1 is the utter incompetence of the opposition.